每日市场点评 --- July 10, 2008

The market was struggling to find a direction on this Thursday. The Dow was up more than 100 points at one point then gave it all back in the next hour. At close, all three major indices were modestly higher. On economic news front, we had most chain retailers reporting same-store sales figure for June. The overall numbers were on average slightly better than consensus with discounters leading the way. In a separate report, weekly initial claims unexpectedly dropped 58K to 346K while economists were looking for a reading close to 400K. But the weekly figure could be distorted by holiday in that week. The continuing claims, on the other hand, increased 91K to 3.202 million, the highest since December 2003. We should see a big jump in initial claims filing next week.

Basic materials and energies were among the biggest winners for the session. Both sectors suffered big losses in the past two weeks so a rebound should not come as a surprise. However, we need to see prices move to new highs before confirming that the bull trend is intact. The CRB commodity index advanced more than 2% led by energies and metals. Crude price jumped almost $5 during the half hour of today’s trading mainly due to technical trading. The US dollar moved lower against most major currencies. Treasuries continued to rally. The VIX index ended the session modestly higher while the market breath was slightly positive.