每日市场点评 --- May 15, 2008

All three major indices finished the session up by around 1%. The Nasdaq, after a failed attempt yesterday to take its 200-day moving average, gained almost 1.5% for the day and closed above the key technical level for the first time since January. The news on the economic front was mixed. The weekly jobless claims came at 371K, matching with market expectation. The continuing claims increased 28K from the previous week to 3.06 million, the third straight week that the number is above 3 million. We also get some mixed results from regional manufacturing reports. The NY Empire State Index, which tracks manufacturing activities in the New York state area, came at -3.2 while economists expected an unchanged reading. The Philadelphia Fed index, on the other hand, came at a better-than-expected reading of -15.6 although the number still suggested severe contraction of manufacturing activities in that region. For the nation as a whole, the overall industrial production for April dropped 0.7%. Economists called for a drop of 0.3%. As a result, the capacity utilization decreased to 79.7% from 80.4% in the previous month. Finally, the home builder sentiment fell in May while economists expected it to be unchanged.

Commodities and technologies were among the biggest gainers for the day. Crude oil had a choppy session before closing its option expiry day pretty much unchanged. The CRB commodity index also changed little. But it’s worth noting that the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed above 11K, which was almost 100% higher than merely four months ago and indicated continuing strong demand for raw materials around the world. The US dollar was mixed against the major currencies while treasuries rose modestly. The VIX index cannot stop its recent slump and closed at the lowest level since last October. Following the Dow and the Nasdaq, the NYSE Composite index became the latest key index to crack its 200-day moving average. Will the S&P 500 finally join the group? We have to wait and see. But after a rough start earlier in 2008, the S&P 500 index has trimmed its loss to only 3%. Recession? Go figure!