股海一粟的博客
投资是一门艺术，投资是一所永远的学校。股海一粟第一次接触到股票还是在1988年，那时候上海只有老八股，没有正规的交易所。。。那一年股海一粟只有10岁。
正文
The market ended the first quarter on a relatively quiet fashion. All three major indices posted modest gains but the volume was very light. Despite today’s gain, the S&P 500 still ended the month lower by around half of a percent, extending its losing streak to five consecutive months - the longest since 1990. As for the quarter, the index posted a decline of 9.9%, the biggest since 2002.
It was a light day in terms of economic news. The Chicago PMI came at 48.2, better than 46.0 expected. But investors didn’t seem to pay much attention to the regional manufacturing report and tomorrow we are going to get the national ISM index, which can be a potential market mover. Separately, Treasury Secretary Paulson made a speech at 10am proposing his plan that calls for larger oversight role for the Federal Reserve, the merging of the SEC with the CFTC, a federal charter for insurance companies and the closure of the Office of Thrift Supervision. Although this was probably the largest regulation change in the financial industry since the Great Depression, investors soon realized it would take quite a few years to implement such a plan assuming it can get all the legislative approvals so any near-term impact would be minimal.
Just like last Friday, we didn’t read too much into today’s action due to possible quarter-end window dressing. For the quarter, none of the 10 major sectors posted a gain. On the loser’s list, tech, financials and health care took the top three positions. Many overseas markets fared even worse than the US market. In Asia, both Nikkei 225 Average and the Hang Seng Index lost 18%. In Europe, the FTSE100 posted a loss of 12% while the DAX declined 19%. Treasuries and commodities were among the biggest winners for the quarter. For example, the yields on the 2-year T-bill dropped 125bps while the yields on the 10-year notes decreased 60bps. The CRB commodity index closed the quarter at 386.89, up around 6% despite a pull-back in today’s trading. Many individual commodities did much better than the index suggested. Natural gas, for instance, posted a gain of more than 30% for the quarter.
It was a light day in terms of economic news. The Chicago PMI came at 48.2, better than 46.0 expected. But investors didn’t seem to pay much attention to the regional manufacturing report and tomorrow we are going to get the national ISM index, which can be a potential market mover. Separately, Treasury Secretary Paulson made a speech at 10am proposing his plan that calls for larger oversight role for the Federal Reserve, the merging of the SEC with the CFTC, a federal charter for insurance companies and the closure of the Office of Thrift Supervision. Although this was probably the largest regulation change in the financial industry since the Great Depression, investors soon realized it would take quite a few years to implement such a plan assuming it can get all the legislative approvals so any near-term impact would be minimal.
Just like last Friday, we didn’t read too much into today’s action due to possible quarter-end window dressing. For the quarter, none of the 10 major sectors posted a gain. On the loser’s list, tech, financials and health care took the top three positions. Many overseas markets fared even worse than the US market. In Asia, both Nikkei 225 Average and the Hang Seng Index lost 18%. In Europe, the FTSE100 posted a loss of 12% while the DAX declined 19%. Treasuries and commodities were among the biggest winners for the quarter. For example, the yields on the 2-year T-bill dropped 125bps while the yields on the 10-year notes decreased 60bps. The CRB commodity index closed the quarter at 386.89, up around 6% despite a pull-back in today’s trading. Many individual commodities did much better than the index suggested. Natural gas, for instance, posted a gain of more than 30% for the quarter.
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