股海一粟的博客
投资是一门艺术，投资是一所永远的学校。股海一粟第一次接触到股票还是在1988年，那时候上海只有老八股，没有正规的交易所。。。那一年股海一粟只有10岁。
正文
All three major indices ended the day lower by a little less than 1%. Disappointing economic news and an analyst slashing first quarter earnings estimates for several financial names outweighed strengths seen in many commodity names. However, even with today’s decline, the S&P500 is still up more than 6% from the lows reached on March 17th.
Businesses may have joined consumers in cutting their spending recently. The Durable Orders for February dropped 1.7% following a decrease of 4.7% in the previous month. Economists expected a rise of 0.7%. The unexpected drop was mainly caused by a 13% decline in demand for machinery, which was the biggest since 1992. Excluding orders for transportation, orders dropped 2.6%, the most in more than a year. In a separate report, new home sales for February fell to a 590K annual pace, the lowest level in 13 years. But the number was actually better than the 578K expected by economists. Inventories, however, remain at 9.8 months’ supply, the same as in January and the highest level since 1981. Although today’s new home sales number came at the worst in 13 years, we are probably much closer to the bottom of the recent housing slump compared to merely several months ago. Of course, the joint efforts by the government and the Fed should offer more help in the coming months.
The US dollar resumed its slide this week following a temporary rebound last week. It dropped back below 100 against the yen. Against the euro, the US dollar had the biggest 2-day decline since January 2001 after the ECB President Trichet rejected cutting interest rates. After today’s drop, the US dollar has lost 8% against the euro in the first quarter of 2008. The CRB commodity index continued to rally and gained another 2% led by a $5 jump in crude oil price. Treasuries continued to rise following today’s weak-than-expected durable orders. As for the next Fed meeting, traders currently bet a 40% chance of a 50bps cut in the Fed Funds rate with the balance for a quarter percent cut.
Businesses may have joined consumers in cutting their spending recently. The Durable Orders for February dropped 1.7% following a decrease of 4.7% in the previous month. Economists expected a rise of 0.7%. The unexpected drop was mainly caused by a 13% decline in demand for machinery, which was the biggest since 1992. Excluding orders for transportation, orders dropped 2.6%, the most in more than a year. In a separate report, new home sales for February fell to a 590K annual pace, the lowest level in 13 years. But the number was actually better than the 578K expected by economists. Inventories, however, remain at 9.8 months’ supply, the same as in January and the highest level since 1981. Although today’s new home sales number came at the worst in 13 years, we are probably much closer to the bottom of the recent housing slump compared to merely several months ago. Of course, the joint efforts by the government and the Fed should offer more help in the coming months.
The US dollar resumed its slide this week following a temporary rebound last week. It dropped back below 100 against the yen. Against the euro, the US dollar had the biggest 2-day decline since January 2001 after the ECB President Trichet rejected cutting interest rates. After today’s drop, the US dollar has lost 8% against the euro in the first quarter of 2008. The CRB commodity index continued to rally and gained another 2% led by a $5 jump in crude oil price. Treasuries continued to rise following today’s weak-than-expected durable orders. As for the next Fed meeting, traders currently bet a 40% chance of a 50bps cut in the Fed Funds rate with the balance for a quarter percent cut.
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