正文
we all know demand-supply balance for any commodity,
when demand supply loses balance, the speculation force will make the price run faster and wilder,
the fundemental of oil going up is the worldwild demand, particularly since China adopted US-style highway and air trafficing system, (vs the old railway based system)
some may say that, demand didn\'t go up 10 times, why price up 10 times?
that\'s just classic economic theory on price elasticity of demand, some demands are very rigid and thus price change nonlinearly, see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_elasticity_of_demand
the oil price trend will change at the next balance point, before that, only corrections (profit taking) but not the direction,
US oil demand finally start to abate, http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/23/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm?postversion=2008052313,
the focus should be on China, when China lifts its price limit on the gasoline and diseal, which some have rumored to be happening as soon as sometime in June, (but could be postponed due to SiChuan quake, )
B Pickens also mentioned this point, one of his argument for oil price to keep going higher is that China has yet to decrease oil import... translation to the Wall St sharks: demand is yet to soften up,
so imho, when and only when, and as soon as we see the news that Chinese oil import number goes down, oil price will have a real waterfall,
when demand supply loses balance, the speculation force will make the price run faster and wilder,
the fundemental of oil going up is the worldwild demand, particularly since China adopted US-style highway and air trafficing system, (vs the old railway based system)
some may say that, demand didn\'t go up 10 times, why price up 10 times?
that\'s just classic economic theory on price elasticity of demand, some demands are very rigid and thus price change nonlinearly, see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_elasticity_of_demand
the oil price trend will change at the next balance point, before that, only corrections (profit taking) but not the direction,
US oil demand finally start to abate, http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/23/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm?postversion=2008052313,
the focus should be on China, when China lifts its price limit on the gasoline and diseal, which some have rumored to be happening as soon as sometime in June, (but could be postponed due to SiChuan quake, )
B Pickens also mentioned this point, one of his argument for oil price to keep going higher is that China has yet to decrease oil import... translation to the Wall St sharks: demand is yet to soften up,
so imho, when and only when, and as soon as we see the news that Chinese oil import number goes down, oil price will have a real waterfall,
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