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2008之回顾与2009之展望 老周
今年由于对油价的判断严重失误,损失惨重.是我有史以来最惨的一年.今年也比往年操作频繁,章法有些紊乱.以下是我刚刚在投资日志上写下的2008年总结与检讨(括弧内为新加的COMMENTS),除个别数目用XXX和个别SHORT的股票用AAA等代替外,其余均为真实数据,所以请大家不要POST到别的地方去.谢谢.
It has been a tough year for me. I lost about 23% overall this year ---26.7% for my own account, -15.4% for 401K, and +11.3% for IRAs (youmight not believe this, but it is true. These two accounts hold Canadaand natural resource funds till May, and then treasuries since. I wishmy other accounts did the same thing). This is the worst year in my 15years investment career.
Review of 2008 (most of the things I mentioned in this group already):
1. Bought 5% homebuilder TOL at last year end and early January (stilloptimistic for a quick recovery then), made 30% profit after somehedges.
2. Bought 10% food DBA at last year end for this year’s USD hedge.Didn’t make a penny out of this strategy, despite two reasonablysuccessful short-term trades for hedging (thanks to Zeng xiong).
3. Shorted four Chinese ADRs (AAA, BB, CCC, DDD) with 10% weightingstarting last year end and January (when Shanghai Index at 5400), andmade about 25% in less than 2 months (covered way too early).
4. Bought 5% financials in March (2% AIG, 1.5% IRE, and 1.5% AIB). Iwas still optimistic and thought that the subprime crisis was overexaggerated. I lost 20% in a couple of weeks after some initial quickrebounce (should have paid more attention to it888 xiong’s warnings).Sold all AIG/IRE/AIB in May with 20-30% loss (This is the turning pointfor my recognition of the deeper recession and oil crisis).
5. Started selling GRMN since Feb/March after meeting the 2-yearholding period rule. Finished all selling in May/June with big lossesthis year. I turned a 3X into a 40% only gainer, and lost more than$XXX K from last year’s top in GRMN. 犯了教条主义大错 (modified the rule later,but too late).
6. In May/June, after recognizing the deeper problem, I made a drasticmove for my 401K and IRAs. Sold all funds, except the Canadian naturalresource funds in 401K, and moved proceeds into short term treasuries.Also started a major surgery for my own managed account. 为了掩护大部队撤退,bought a large amount of (YYY) puts for SPY Sept 90 with a cost of$0.26 each (but too early by one month – the puts expired worthless inSept – I should have bought Oct puts :-):-).(当然这个牺牲还是值得的,因为它们为我的IBM,MO,PM等赢得了时间).
7. In May-August, started gradually selling my remaining GS at $190-180after owning it for 7 years (the other half was sold at $220 at lastyear end, 3-bagger). Sold IBM at $120-125 after owning for 5 years(2-bagger); sold MO at $20-22 and PM at $53-55 (almost at the peakprice, 6-bagger, my largest single holding) after owning them about 10years; sold BA/LMT (converted BA to LMT at year beginning) at $112after 7 years (4-bagger); sold HD at $22 with a 50% LOSS after owningfor 4 years; and sold relatively new holdings USG and HOG with a 10-30%haircut.
8. In June, when the mania of oil crisis went on in the media, I“contributed” to the mania with my own Peak Oil series (withoutrealizing the good time is over). Instead of taking profits in ECA andCOP (both owned for more than 5 years, and 4-5 baggers then), I thoughtPO is hitting and the oil price should see $200 before seeing $100again (to be fair with myself, I did have some concern over ECA’s pricejump when it touched $90/sh, and sold some covered calls for both ECAand COP, but compared to the following sharp decline, these coveredcalls are nothing).
9. The BIG mistake came in September/October when the oil priceretreated back down to $100. I bought 5% RIG at $145-135 (when oil wasabout $110-100), and added 5% USO at $82 (when oil around $90-91). Alsoinitiated 5% in natural gas players (CHK/XTO, UNG). At the peak, I hadabout 30% weighting in oil, 10% in food, and 5% in NG. Plus 15% insilver/gold, I had close to 60% in strategic natural resources (whilethe rest all in T-bills).
10. I did realize the coming deflation early (also wrote somethingabout it here), but thought even under a deflationary world, there willbe something different. That something will be OIL. Too bad! (In 1999,I was lucky realizing the coming crisis for high-tech, and boughtPhilip Morris. I thought this time OIL will be my Philip Morris. Thisbelief cost me dearly, a total of $YYY K. I turned myself from a bigwinner in oil to a net loser in oil). 犯了经验主义大错. Nevertheless, I startedadding USO again recently trying to bring back my oil weighting toclose to 30%.
11. Shorts. I started heavily shorting financials (SKF), retailers(SCC), high-tech (EEEE, FFFF) and general market (SH) since August forhedging against my oil holdings. These heavy shorts, with up to 5%weighting each, helped a lot, with many of them gaining 30-40% in a fewdays (but I haven’t done short term trading for a long time, so was notvery good at timing, and missed HUGE peaks in SKF and SCC TWICE).
12. In November, bought an apartment in Hangzhou for 170W RMB for myparents-in-law. I knew this would turn out to be my single worstinvestment, but still did it under some "pressure".(知道时机大大地不对,但我岳父母待我很好,就算是老丈人70大寿的贺礼了.再说他们高兴了,我的日子就好过了,您说是不?)
Outlook for 2009:
在当前的形势下,许多战术都不灵了,但战略更重要了.我会继续我的丈母娘原则,终值至上原则,和应对而非预测原则. I don’t dopredictions as usual, but will react as planned IF the followinghappens. The investment theme for 2009 is to preserve buying power andhedge against risks with a potential Great Square Depression andcurrency crisis. Cash is still the KING - except oil and silver/gold, Ihave no other long positions currently.
1. IF oil price keeps dropping to $30, or $20, I will add USO tomaintain my 30% weighting in oil. In other words, I will roughly doublemy current oil holdings if the oil price drops to $20/bbl.
2. IF silver price drops to $7-8, I will add silver to maintain my 15%weighting. If gold drops to $600, I will double my gold position(target 5% weighting).
3. IF Dow/Gold ratio drops to ~2 (currently 9.97), will sell myprecious metals and buy stocks (this is likely not going to happen in2009, probably in 2010-2011). But IF it drops to below 1.0, I willrefinance my mortgage, and use all my money to buy stocks.
4. Hedge my long positions in oil and silver with shorts in retailers and high-techs (will give financials a break this year).
5. 如果有豺狼来了,迎接它们的有猎枪. 朋友来了,有好酒.
今年由于对油价的判断严重失误,损失惨重.是我有史以来最惨的一年.今年也比往年操作频繁,章法有些紊乱.以下是我刚刚在投资日志上写下的2008年总结与检讨(括弧内为新加的COMMENTS),除个别数目用XXX和个别SHORT的股票用AAA等代替外,其余均为真实数据,所以请大家不要POST到别的地方去.谢谢.
It has been a tough year for me. I lost about 23% overall this year ---26.7% for my own account, -15.4% for 401K, and +11.3% for IRAs (youmight not believe this, but it is true. These two accounts hold Canadaand natural resource funds till May, and then treasuries since. I wishmy other accounts did the same thing). This is the worst year in my 15years investment career.
Review of 2008 (most of the things I mentioned in this group already):
1. Bought 5% homebuilder TOL at last year end and early January (stilloptimistic for a quick recovery then), made 30% profit after somehedges.
2. Bought 10% food DBA at last year end for this year’s USD hedge.Didn’t make a penny out of this strategy, despite two reasonablysuccessful short-term trades for hedging (thanks to Zeng xiong).
3. Shorted four Chinese ADRs (AAA, BB, CCC, DDD) with 10% weightingstarting last year end and January (when Shanghai Index at 5400), andmade about 25% in less than 2 months (covered way too early).
4. Bought 5% financials in March (2% AIG, 1.5% IRE, and 1.5% AIB). Iwas still optimistic and thought that the subprime crisis was overexaggerated. I lost 20% in a couple of weeks after some initial quickrebounce (should have paid more attention to it888 xiong’s warnings).Sold all AIG/IRE/AIB in May with 20-30% loss (This is the turning pointfor my recognition of the deeper recession and oil crisis).
5. Started selling GRMN since Feb/March after meeting the 2-yearholding period rule. Finished all selling in May/June with big lossesthis year. I turned a 3X into a 40% only gainer, and lost more than$XXX K from last year’s top in GRMN. 犯了教条主义大错 (modified the rule later,but too late).
6. In May/June, after recognizing the deeper problem, I made a drasticmove for my 401K and IRAs. Sold all funds, except the Canadian naturalresource funds in 401K, and moved proceeds into short term treasuries.Also started a major surgery for my own managed account. 为了掩护大部队撤退,bought a large amount of (YYY) puts for SPY Sept 90 with a cost of$0.26 each (but too early by one month – the puts expired worthless inSept – I should have bought Oct puts :-):-).(当然这个牺牲还是值得的,因为它们为我的IBM,MO,PM等赢得了时间).
7. In May-August, started gradually selling my remaining GS at $190-180after owning it for 7 years (the other half was sold at $220 at lastyear end, 3-bagger). Sold IBM at $120-125 after owning for 5 years(2-bagger); sold MO at $20-22 and PM at $53-55 (almost at the peakprice, 6-bagger, my largest single holding) after owning them about 10years; sold BA/LMT (converted BA to LMT at year beginning) at $112after 7 years (4-bagger); sold HD at $22 with a 50% LOSS after owningfor 4 years; and sold relatively new holdings USG and HOG with a 10-30%haircut.
8. In June, when the mania of oil crisis went on in the media, I“contributed” to the mania with my own Peak Oil series (withoutrealizing the good time is over). Instead of taking profits in ECA andCOP (both owned for more than 5 years, and 4-5 baggers then), I thoughtPO is hitting and the oil price should see $200 before seeing $100again (to be fair with myself, I did have some concern over ECA’s pricejump when it touched $90/sh, and sold some covered calls for both ECAand COP, but compared to the following sharp decline, these coveredcalls are nothing).
9. The BIG mistake came in September/October when the oil priceretreated back down to $100. I bought 5% RIG at $145-135 (when oil wasabout $110-100), and added 5% USO at $82 (when oil around $90-91). Alsoinitiated 5% in natural gas players (CHK/XTO, UNG). At the peak, I hadabout 30% weighting in oil, 10% in food, and 5% in NG. Plus 15% insilver/gold, I had close to 60% in strategic natural resources (whilethe rest all in T-bills).
10. I did realize the coming deflation early (also wrote somethingabout it here), but thought even under a deflationary world, there willbe something different. That something will be OIL. Too bad! (In 1999,I was lucky realizing the coming crisis for high-tech, and boughtPhilip Morris. I thought this time OIL will be my Philip Morris. Thisbelief cost me dearly, a total of $YYY K. I turned myself from a bigwinner in oil to a net loser in oil). 犯了经验主义大错. Nevertheless, I startedadding USO again recently trying to bring back my oil weighting toclose to 30%.
11. Shorts. I started heavily shorting financials (SKF), retailers(SCC), high-tech (EEEE, FFFF) and general market (SH) since August forhedging against my oil holdings. These heavy shorts, with up to 5%weighting each, helped a lot, with many of them gaining 30-40% in a fewdays (but I haven’t done short term trading for a long time, so was notvery good at timing, and missed HUGE peaks in SKF and SCC TWICE).
12. In November, bought an apartment in Hangzhou for 170W RMB for myparents-in-law. I knew this would turn out to be my single worstinvestment, but still did it under some "pressure".(知道时机大大地不对,但我岳父母待我很好,就算是老丈人70大寿的贺礼了.再说他们高兴了,我的日子就好过了,您说是不?)
Outlook for 2009:
在当前的形势下,许多战术都不灵了,但战略更重要了.我会继续我的丈母娘原则,终值至上原则,和应对而非预测原则. I don’t dopredictions as usual, but will react as planned IF the followinghappens. The investment theme for 2009 is to preserve buying power andhedge against risks with a potential Great Square Depression andcurrency crisis. Cash is still the KING - except oil and silver/gold, Ihave no other long positions currently.
1. IF oil price keeps dropping to $30, or $20, I will add USO tomaintain my 30% weighting in oil. In other words, I will roughly doublemy current oil holdings if the oil price drops to $20/bbl.
2. IF silver price drops to $7-8, I will add silver to maintain my 15%weighting. If gold drops to $600, I will double my gold position(target 5% weighting).
3. IF Dow/Gold ratio drops to ~2 (currently 9.97), will sell myprecious metals and buy stocks (this is likely not going to happen in2009, probably in 2010-2011). But IF it drops to below 1.0, I willrefinance my mortgage, and use all my money to buy stocks.
4. Hedge my long positions in oil and silver with shorts in retailers and high-techs (will give financials a break this year).
5. 如果有豺狼来了,迎接它们的有猎枪. 朋友来了,有好酒.
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