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Susan_wang’s Posting Highly Recommended & My Comments

(2007-02-24 10:45:41) 下一个

Susan_wang’s posting highly recommended & my comments

 

From reading past her posts, many of us would now know that Susan_wang is a successful trader, she is a 高手.  Her posts “谨以此文献给不畏艰险、苦苦探询股海真理的散户朋友们” is definitely worth reading, and re-reading. Obviously, her posts is a small portion of what she learned and knows as a successful trader, I hope she and other good traders can write out more. Of course, a lot of what she has learned and mastered, exits only in her soul and mind, difficult to communicate and to be understood. Never-ending practice and self-learning from it is the only key to one’s success.

 

1. About the stock mkt game

 

“股市完全是赤裸裸的人性竞争,也就是人的全面内在素质的竞争,一个人的发财致富就要建立在他人人性的弱点上面,所以坑蒙拐骗、巧取豪夺,种种手段无所不用其极,你在其它地方见过这么多随时随地玩出种种花样想算计你钱的骗子和强盗吗?你看到的欺骗与谎言在哪里有股市这样多呢?”

 

There is no better way for capital mkt to function, as Keynes said, “Fair is foul and foul is fair”.

 

2. The game is harder and harder
”股道的探索是没有止境的,不存在最高境界,只有更高境界”

Behind mkt are generations and generations of investors and traders. To survive, all of them have to improve themselves, and making the game harder as a result. “One has to keep learning until he dies”.

 

3. About trader themselves

 “我们的人生不应仅仅建立在股市赚钱的基础上,我们应该成为对自己、对周围的人、对社会、对国家负责任和有用的人。因为从真正意义上讲,你只是记名的财富所有者,财富是属于整个社会的,只是现在暂时存在你那里而已,而财富的多寡和一个人是否幸福无关。股市是资金的猎杀场所,一个人的成功要建立在更多人失败的基础上。如果我们侥幸赚到了钱,希望大家这时都能想想这些钱后面隐藏着别人的汗水、泪水甚至是生命,并在花钱丰富自己生活的同时,能够用这些钱作一点对社会有益的事情。在这方面我想,积点德、行点善是对自己有好处的,成为金钱的主人胜过当金钱的奴仆”

 

By trading, a trader (even the losing one) helps, although unintentionally,   facilitating mkt in its capital allocation and economic signal sensing function. To keep his job and to donate out some of his winnings, a trader has to gain first, and consistently gains.

 

To gain, first step is not to lose.

 

4. There will be always trading loss, a good trader can gain much more than what he loses on average, bull or bear mkt.  

 

人在绝对意义上讲是无法战胜股市的,因为判断力和想象无法战胜事实,你的胜利与否不是由你决定而是由股市决定。我想,最终意义上的高手是那些能够作到从容进退的人。李文斯顿之所以失败是因为他迷信自己的力量,不能拒绝股市的诱惑。换句话说,他拿得起来却放不下,在《股票作手回忆录》中可以多次看到他放弃了原定的假期急急忙忙杀回到股市的例子。呵呵,其实拿得起来容易,放得下才是最难作到的。在股市成功,你必须全身心地关注它,必须付出相当的代价,但你又不能因此就放弃一切。股市没有生活重要,你必须注意在两者之间找到平衡点,否则很容易既失去了钱,又失去了生活。

 

Fundamentally and theoretically, there is quite bit of randomness even in index prices in short term, not to mention price ranges of individual stocks.

  

This is due to constant changes in FA ”天时”, TA “地利”and investors/traders “人和”, and their different combinations. To beat mkt consistently is difficult, if not impossible.  

 

Trading loss is unavoidable, but it has to be hedged and/or limited, and a lot of less than gain on average.

 

A good trader has to balance or hedge himself out someway, economically or otherwise in life.  In addition to investing, Buffet also operates real business. Few notice that.

 





5. Again, it is easier to lose than to gain


要想在股市取得成功,必须正确理解股市的本质。你离真相越近,离成功也就越近。最重要的问题:股市是什么?可能有些人没有细想过,但任何一个股民都在自觉或不自觉地拿自己的钞票来回答这个问题。这个问题当然没有终极的正确答案。在现阶段我的理解是:股市是财富的再分配场所,推动股价升降的背后力量是人性,股票的具体价格是通过多、空双方竞争来实现的。我所有的思想都是围绕着这句话而发的。在股市偶尔赚钱很容易,但想长时间笑傲股市,必须对以下这几个问题进行持续地探讨。
1. 财富是什么?它对你自己有何意义?它对别人的实际影响力如何?(真理从来不在字面之中,但好书能帮你接近正确的答案。推荐书籍《金钱传》)
2. 你了解自己吗?你了解别人吗?你了解人性吗?(当然,必须有丰富的人生阅历是前提,推荐书籍《智慧书》)
3.竞争是什么?你了解它吗?你在采用什么方式竞争?结果如何?别人是怎么竞争的?(推荐书籍《竞争优势》、《孙子兵法》、《五轮书》、《兰德决策》。我认为这些书籍的价值远远大于股票理论书籍的价值,即使不炒股,我想在现阶段的激烈竞争的社会形势下,这些书也对我们的帮助也是相当大的)。


四.要正确地认识到:在股市竞争获胜的难度要远远大于其它行业。原因在于:1、炒股获利快速。2、工作不辛苦。3、进入门槛低。这些因素导致了股市里竞争的强度比在其它行业激烈和残酷得多。由于人性的缺陷和对竞争规律认识的不足,绝大多数人必定将成为牺牲品。我们必须正视这个严峻的现实:股市挣钱很不容易!!但的确着存在着一些长期以来一直比较成功的人。那么,成功之路到底在何方呢?

About mkt:

Adam Smith, Marx and Keynes all have thought about economic resource allocation mechanism (not directly on stock mkt as we know today) in capitalist society, and its limitation. Philosophically, the most rational goal of economic signal sensing, planning and capital allocation has to be realized in the most irrational way in financial mkt (bonds, equities, commodities and currencies), whose functioning is greatly based on the greed and fear, “foul and fair”. Both Marx and Keynes realized the primitiveness of capitalist economy. The life of capitalism is a lot of longer than Marx predicted though, and Keynes had given the life expectancy of capitalism in the range of a few hundred years.     

 

About trading:


That said, trading is more like a war than anything else in terms of brutality, and it is becoming more popular and more brutal, for at least one reason:

 

Contrary to common thinking, due to the competition (low returns) and other reasons (gov’t and environmental regulations), more and more business (individual or institutions) come to financial market to invest and compete. If you have any real business experiences (you have to own busines yourself) anywhere now days,  you would know how hard it is to find a good “project” to do, not to mention the increasing red tapes from government.

 

Governments tend to regulate more in real economy than in financial economy. You don’t really have an environmental and social infrastructure to protect in financial economy, although the latter is more brutal: investing or speculating, your are on your own. Although sometimes and somewhere, CBs will pump up asset prices in financial mkt.    

 

 

 

So the nature of financial mkt makes it more risky: to lose is more likely than to gain. The key to winning is not to lose first. 

 

 

 


6. How to win and trade successfully?

 

1st level:  心性(类似持久的精神状态)层次

 

高手们成功方法不尽相同,只有探询他们的心路历程,我们才能发现他们取胜的关键。股市是人性的竞争,在股市能够长期生存下来的人无疑是强者,高手们真正意义上的强大是他们的心灵,所有高手的共同特点是他们能够在心性(类似持久的精神状态)层次上建立起自己独特的核心竞争力进而在市场上持续获得竞争优势,就是说,高手都有属于他自己的心之刀。但提取他们共同的素质,我们就会发现:
1. 他们都有达观、积极面对困难的心境和心态。这属于人生观和世界观的层次。
2. 他们都是有坚定信仰、不盲从的人。
3. 他们勤奋学习,勇于实践,喜欢面对挑战。
4. 他们善于从自己和他人的经验中学习,从我作起。
5. 他们冷静、耐心与坚韧。
6. 他们有大局观、远见卓识。
7. 他们非常了解自己的缺陷并有有效的制约方法。
8. 他们热爱股市,愿意为自己的事业献身。
你在巴非特、索罗丝、林奇等高手身上看到这些素质的影子了吗?你看到这些才是高手真正实力的精华吗?

 

“心性”is hard to elaborate and communicate, and even more difficult in English, because you have to experience or have it yourself to know it. I try to give a few examples:

 

Do you have the will power and confidence to stay with your trading plan in front of onslaught of mkt? Of course, sometimes you just have to change. But very often traders bail out because they are “weak longs” and “weak shorts” in the first place, and they get eaten.

 

“Will power” comes from you as a person: are you a tough guy? Tough time doesn’t last, but tough man does.

 

“Confidence” comes partially from your personality, and partially comes from your experience and knowledge. 



 

2nd level: 方法、理论与理念, and 刀招
七、以上就是高手们所具备的共同素质,这是成功之路的必要条件,也是打造高手之刀的必要材料。股市成功之路绝对是因人而异的,每个人都不同,但又有共通的规律可寻。如果认识到股市的竞争是在人性层次的全面竞争的话,那你必须在心性层次上建立起自己独特的核心竞争力进而在市场上持续获得竞争优势才有可能成功,也就是说,你必须为自己量身定做一把属于自己的心性之刀,这也是使你能够在残酷的金钱杀场里长期活下去的唯一指望。你现在费时费力研究的所有的方法、理论与理念无非刀招而已。没有任何一招可以在不同的情况下取不同的敌人的性命,招数的迷信者往往死在他们自认为最了解的招数上。招数的威力在于使用者的实力、对手的实力再加上环境等其它诸条件的配合,事实上天下无敌的招数根本不存在。再普通的招数由高手使出也会倍添神奇,再精巧的招数低手使出来也会破绽百出。长期的竞争靠实力说话,杰出的心性是股市中真实实力的体现,内心是否拥有多重真正长久而且强大的力量是成败的关键。在人性层次上的竞争如果你在心态与性格上没有优势并且漏洞百出的话,光靠点花拳绣腿那不是白给吗?如果你整日沉醉在研究不同的方法、理论与理念中,迷惑在妄图找到天下无敌的招数以横扫股市的境地而没有切实加强你的心性层次修养的话,舍本逐末,焉能不败?

I would also add experiences to 刀招, and experience is not just “I have been there and done that”, it is also the learning you picked up from it.

 

3rd: Different combinations of 心性 and and 刀招


八、如果你想成为股林高手的话必须注重培养这些杰出的素质,欠缺一条都会功败垂成!这些素质对大部分人来说必须经过大风大浪才能养成,这需要漫长的时间和种种磨练,有时你甚至要放弃自己内心最根本的一些信仰才能得到,宛如一个人的历死重生、脱胎换骨,其痛苦的滋味旁人难以想象。人性的光辉是在苦难中孕育出来的,逆境往往是培养杰出心性最好的老师。这就是股谚所说没有五到八年的时间、不经历过大起大落就不可能培养出成熟的股民的真正原因。成熟的真义在于他们心性的成熟,而不是因为他们读了本天书,或是突然间发现了一些对付股市的绝招。竞争从来不相信眼泪,只有心性层面的强者才能在股市里长期生存下去!在其它行业中还存在着技能、知识等其它方面的竞争,但股市完全是赤裸裸的人性竞争,也就是人的全面内在素质的竞争,一个人的发财致富就要建立在他人人性的弱点上面,所以坑蒙拐骗、巧取豪夺,种种手段无所不用其极,你在其它地方见过这么多随时随地玩出种种花样想算计你钱的骗子和强盗吗?你看到的欺骗与谎言在哪里有股市这样多呢?最简单的低买高卖为啥你就是作不到呢?靠聪明靠运气只能帮你赢得一时,想这么一直赢下去你说要靠什么?

Sometimes I would think Mao, and his two most outstanding generals Lin and Peng, would all be good traders.

 

Mao is at the highest level of both 心性 and 刀招, needless to say. He is master.

 

Lin is more a “brain man” than Peng, and Peng is more of 心性 than 刀招.  Lin and Peng are all great generals of different combinations of 心性 and 刀招.

 

For most of us, it’s hard to be Mao, but probably possible to be Lin or Peng. Different combinations of 心性 and 刀招 would all work, but you can’t have gaps, significantly lacking in any one of them. That's one of reasons that economists are not necessarily good investors/traders, they have gaps. 


九.呵呵,说了这么多,实际上可以用一句话来概括:就是股市的成功在于能否突破人性的藩篱,超越自我,在心性层次为自己打造出一把刚柔并济的好刀。这是所有的高手的共同点,如果你没有自己的刀,即使你花费了再多的时间研究那些高级的刀招,也只有落得等死或投降的结局。你花尽心思绞尽脑汁想成为与90%输家不同的幸运儿但最终只会事与愿违,因为这不是能够在依靠方法、理论、理念等以招数取胜这个层面上能够解决的问题,解决的层面在于心性。在股道探索上想走捷径是没有可能的。哈哈,现在你能明白为什么彼得林奇会说把他的方法教给别人没用了吧?因为那是他自己的刀法,你没有一把刀却妄想用这些刀法要敌人的命岂不是等同于自杀?价值投资理念必须加上巴非特式的信仰和忍耐再加上美国经济的增长才能换来巴非特式的成功。在任何情况下,成功都源自于天时、地利、人和的完美配合。你唯一可以作的就是培养人和,最大限度地利用地利,耐心等待天时。你可以走上投机的道路,但必须根绝任何投机的心理!


十、高手的刀,其实就是杰出的心性。对我们低手来说,这需要长时间相当痛苦的积累过程才能达到,和一个人智商的高低、理论知识掌握的多寡无关。我相信,只有你到了拥有高手之心的那一天,你自然同时拥有了高手的眼界。K线虽然还是那些K线,波浪虽然还是那些波浪,但从这一刻起才会真正变得鲜活、生动起来;招数虽然还是那些招数,也只有从这一刻起才能对你有实际意义。在质变的临界点没有达到之前,即便你满腹经纶、绝顶聪明,被人性弱点蒙蔽的双眼又怎能看见遍地的黄金呢?“当财富来到的时候,它将来得如此急,如此快,使人奇怪在那艰难的岁月,这些财富都躲到哪里去了?”这句话现在明白了吗?一将功成万骨枯,古来征战几人还?只有战场才能成就英雄,只有苦难才能造就杰出的心性。股海无情,要走上投机之路却没有一条可以投机的捷径,我希望有缘人能领会这事实上很简单的道理,不要缘木求鱼、舍本逐末,免得越努力,反而离成功越遥远,最终落得个聪明反被聪明误的下场!心性偏颇的人,一心只想靠投机取巧拿走别人钱财的人,他自己存在股市里的银子或迟或早注定要被别人拿去!正所谓六根不净,何以股为?股道精华,实在股外!


十一、有了自己的刀,你才真正踏上了属于自己的成功路,但锻造这把刀却是任何大师和前辈都无法教你的事情,就好比想学会游泳,你必须亲自下水了解水性,精通流体力学和运动生理学对你不会有太大帮助一样!通往高手之路是一条漫长而痛苦的蜕变之路,孤独是你唯一的伙伴,失败是你最好的老师!百忍成钢,当心性修炼得有如镜子般明彻,如流水般圆韧时;当你切切实实生活在不以物喜、不以己悲的宁静中时;当你发觉胸中不断流动着“虽千万人而吾往矣”般的勇气时,历经千锤百炼,你的刀就练成了。拔刀四顾、纵横天下的那一天还会远吗?

Back to the philosophy of financial mkt and its players:

 

For mkt, the most rational is realized with the most irrational;

For players, to become a successful speculator is not to speculate on the way there: we have to constantly work on our soul, will and mind, through practice and theory, one bit and piece at a time, and as long as we live.



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