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从美国人口结构趋势很容易看明白床铺的当选以及今后的政治走向

(2017-02-07 12:48:07) 下一个

美国人口结构的趋势就是黑墨化。再过30年,白人就是少数民族,黑墨将接近一半。到时美国会是什么样呢?

别的不说,先看看各族裔高中毕业生的sat数学平均成绩吧:黑人 428, 墨裔 457,白人534,亚裔598 (注意sat 起点分数是210分左右,一个乱填空的猴子大概都能得个二三百分)。这个平均分的差距几十年基本没变,所以不难得知当黑墨人口增加到几乎人口一半时,美国的人口素质会是什么样子。

不同族裔sat成绩的差距一直缩小不了,AA也就取消不了,可以想见的是随着黑墨人口的扩大,在大学招生以及高薪工作领域,亚白会受到进一步挤压。比如现在有左派思想库学者就提出大学取消sat成绩而只看GPA, 硅谷公司也要求扩大黑墨员工比例。。。。。。

所以,茶党崛起和床铺当选,本质上是白人对美国黑墨化的抵制。而因为白人不生,同性恋猖獗,黑墨化的趋势是阻挡不住的。  看明白这点,不难想象今后20年会是美国保守派(包括种族主义者)试图反扑的的时代,而愚蠢左派的行为 (比如伯克利骚乱,比如这种BLM的抗议 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv0nVI2rI0Q )都会加速白人对民主党和黑墨化的抵制。

作为华人,盲目维护和支持美国极端种族主义白人所支持的床铺或是站在支持黑墨化的左派一边都是愚蠢行为。

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这是美国左派思想库新出炉的关于sat的报告:

https://www.brookings.edu/research/race-gaps-in-sat-scores-highlight-inequality-and-hinder-upward-mobility/ 

The SAT provides a measure of academic inequality at the end of secondary schooling. Moreover, insofar as SAT scores predict student success in college, inequalities in the SAT score distribution reflect and reinforce racial inequalities across generations.

The mean score on the math section of the SAT for all test-takers is 511 out of 800, the average scores for blacks (428) and Latinos (457) are significantly below those of whites (534) and Asians (598). The scores of black and Latino students are clustered towards the bottom of the distribution, while white scores are relatively normally distributed, and Asians are clustered at the top:

CCF_20170201_Reeves_1

Race gaps on the SATs are especially pronounced at the tails of the distribution. In a perfectly equal distribution, the racial breakdown of scores at every point in the distribution would mirror the composition of test-takers as whole i.e. 51 percent white, 21 percent Latino, 14 percent black, and 14 percent Asian. But in fact, among top scorers—those scoring between a 750 and 800—60 percent are Asian and 33 percent are white, compared to 5 percent Latino and 2 percent black. Meanwhile, among those scoring between 300 and 350, 37 percent are Latino, 35 percent are black, 21 percent are white, and 6 percent are Asian:

 

CCF_20170201_Reeves_2

CCF_20170201_Reeves_3

These gaps have a significant impact on life chances, and therefore on the transmission of inequality across generations. As the economist Bhashkar Mazumder has documented, adolescent cognitive outcomes (in this case, measured by the AFQT) statistically account for most of the race gap in intergenerational social mobility.....

....

There are some limitations to the data which may mean that, if anything, the race gap is being understated. The ceiling on the SAT score may, for example, understate Asian achievement. 

 

 

 

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