a seismic shift of the \' resilient consumer\' mentality?

	vengeur	NEW 1/6/2008 3:16:40 AM
Thoughts on the " resilient consumer" "Atsome point, the consumer--the boomer consumer--will discover that thefirst bull market of the millenium is over and, as a consequence,thatthey will not get a second shot at profit taking. They willconcurrently discover that they cannot get rich by living in a house.These epiphanies will occur a decade after the beatings began in2000--a decade closer to retirement. (The S&P is even for thedecade; slippage from here will really hurt.) They will discover thattheir most fundamental premise--one can spend rather than save andasset inflation will save them--is fundamentally flawed. As this ideasets in, the consumer will become as resilient as a potato chip (whichwill be a primary source of sustenance)." The more I read it,the more ominous it all seems. You're talking a seismic shift ofmentality. I'm trying to figure out how to profit if such a profoundchange of mentality is imposed on us boomers. My guess isPharmaceuticals. Alcohol and snack foods.
RE: Seismic Shiftiness	simeon	NEW 1/6/2008 4:02:52 AM
Sincethe Boomers do things 'en masse', which is a feature of their group,expect a marvelous demonstration of self mutilation. The very change inbehavior from super-spender to super-saver will destroy their abilityto either spend OR save. Cash flow will no longer. Thedifficulty in finding a strategy here is that one must think verythoroughly about how the Boomer spending patterns have in the pastinfluenced the economy, and how in the future their supersaverattitudes will both knock the pillars out from under that 'spender'economy (cars, boats, big trucks, RVs, ATVs, vacations, big screen TVs,etc) and create another TYPE of economy, albeit with a reduction in'cash' flowing. It will be a sudden change, comparitively. Iwould suggest that 'do-it-yourself' and crafting will become big again,as it was for them when they were young adults. I also see a possibleopportunity in building small single floor cottages to capture themigration from McMansions to humble abodes. Needless to say, thesesmaller dwellings will need to be close to healthcare and welfarecenters.
RE: Seismic Shiftiness	greybear	NEW 1/6/2008 5:16:34 AM
That could lead to a strong $$ and deflation. Fed will go to zero interest to kill that plan. May force the savings into stocks. After big drop. retest of low? What a headache - this mess is.
RE: cars, boats, big trucks, RVs, ATVs, vacations, big...	PulpLogger	NEW 1/6/2008 6:00:53 AM
...and there are your short targets, right there.
RE: some see the light	jimfisk	NEW 1/6/2008 6:34:26 AM
itall starts with demographics. yes, the fed will try to go to zeropercent. yes the boomers will try to start saving. yes it will be toolate for many. this will cause many businesses to fail as we know bythe very nature of the system that there is not enough credit incirculation to repay all the debts. failures and further consolidationsare the norm. pharmas, hospitals, nursing homes will continue toexpand. the housing boom is over for at least a generation. there willbe some great deals in a few short years. choose your spots carefullyand be patient.