|Is it 1998 again?||mannfm11|| |
NEW 1/22/2008 7:36:05 PM
No,1998 was curable by the fed because the US had collateral left, themarket was raging to go ever higher (by comparison, this one has beenin slow motion) and it was a situation that was external to the US,some small Asian countries, Russia and LTCM. This one is systematic.1998 didn't have banks taking 11 digit writeoffs with most likely moreto come, a burst housing bubble that is taking the last consumer fuelleft in the US and a raging inflation trap for the central bankers todeal with in addition to a credit crunch. Plus, the GSE's merelystepped forward and printed another $500 billion in credit. Luckily Ihad fallen asleep out of the market when that interday cut came in 1998or I would have lost what few teeth I had left. The American economywasn't sliding into recession, as it still hasn't almost 10 yearslater. But this time it is headed there on a train to hell and honestlywe need a recession this time. I don't call 2001 a recession, thoughthey do. The stock market was only mildly collateralized in 2001 andthat money was quickly replaced by churning mortgage credit.