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今年七月道琼指数达到历史高点一万四千点，之后一路下跌将近一千四百点，等于跌了9.8%。是相当大的一次调整；而标准普尔五百指数则跌掉了今年以来全部的增长。人们不禁要问，五年的牛市是不是就这样结束了？
CNN Money的文章回答说：分析牛市是否结束是有五个标志的
第一，油价通常很高：经历过70年代的股市大跌的人一定会记得高油价是股市的毒药。1973年时，在石油输出国组织宣布禁运之后的几个月里油价翻了四倍，股市立刻进入了相当严酷的熊市。90-91年的高尔夫湾战争对股市也是起了同样的坏作用。为什么油价上涨会起到这样的危害作用？因为高油价可能导致经济发生滞涨或者衰退。对于经济来讲，高油价好比严重的税收，会减缓经济的发展。高价格还会使联邦储备警惕“ 通货膨胀” ，并且有可能会加息以对抗通货膨胀。这是投资者最担心的。到目前为止，今年油价已经长了20%，达到每桶$78.40美元。Ariel Capital的基金经理Timothy Fidler说：高涨的油价迟早会影响企业和大众消费。
第二，债券实际回报率升高：通常来讲，当美国十年债券实际回报率上升到一定程度时，股市就会下跌。从历史上看，70年代中期，80年代早期和晚期，90年代早期以及2000年的大跌都伴随著债券实际回报率的上升。比如，在1987年一月到十月，十年期债券实际回报率从7%升到10.2%，十月发生了股市大跌。那么现在状况如何？今年三月中回报率为4.5%，六月升到5.2%，八月又降到4.7%。Raymond James Financial的主要投资策划Jeffery Saut说“如果回报率升到6%，牛气的投资者就要卷铺盖回家了”。弱势美元对债券也有很不好的影响，当美元贬值，外国投资者会抛出美元，导致美国债券价格下跌，实际回报上升。美元对欧元的比价从今年一个的1.29降到八月时的1.34，如果再进一步跌的话，投资者应该将其做为一个警告信号
第三，股市中上升的股票数量少过跌的：在2000年股市大跌之前，股市的基础已经出现动摇，虽然股市的总指数一直上升，但是真正上升的股票只是那么几只。这段历史给大家的教训就是，指数上升可能是少数股票造成的，有时会掩盖整个股市牛市已经到顶的真相。所以大家应该关注整个股市的健康状况－有多少股票在升，有多少在跌。如果创本年度新高的股票比创新低的股票少，就是一个不好的标志。在今年七月时创新高的股票是创新低股票的两倍－这是一个好现象，不过本月这个情况就颠倒了。
第四，大众消费减弱：很容易理解，当大众减少消费时，股市－主要是由出售产品的公司组成－通常会下跌。在过去的三十年里，每次大众消费减少时通常伴随著股市下滑。有意思的是，消费较少一般在股市下跌之后，所以这很难做为一个标志。不过，大众消费仍然是值得关注的指标。专家说，大众消费有时能把股市中一个普通的调整变成一个熊市。本世纪以来，大众消费状况一直不错。直到今年六月，零售指数降了0.9%，很多连锁大商场的销售都不好。如果房地产继续走跌，消费者自然会将荷包看得紧一些。
第五，企业利润减少：在九十年代未期的牛市。标准普尔五百中的公司的业绩增长率平均为每年12%。2000年时不少公司宣布业绩会减少，股市开始大跌。在这次牛市中，从2003-2006年，标准普尔五百中的公司的业绩增长率平均为每年17%。但是据分析2007年这些公司的业绩增长率是7%，这是非常大的变化。为什么业绩会降下来？因为生产力的增长降低，工资压力增大，别忘了能源价格上涨了不少，利息率上升－如果利率持续上升的话，公司会减少贷款，因此而减少对企业的投资。
从以上几个标志来看，牛现在正受著煎熬。
5 ways to know if the bull is over
Before it keels over, a bull market typically leaves a few road signs. Here\'s what to keep an eye on - from Money Magazine.
Since Money Magazine last examined the health of the bull market (and pronounced it sound), consumer spending began slowing, several prominent buyout deals unraveled, and oh yeah - concerns about subprime mortgage loans going bad caused stocks to fall off a cliff.
After closing above 14,000 for the first time in late July, the Dow has since plunged nearly 1400 points, or 9.8 percent, close to an official correction. The S&P 500 has given up all of its gains for the year.
All this has added a certain cogency to the view that the five-year-old bull could be closer to the end of its road. So while you know better than to try to time the market - and you do, don\'t you? - now is a good moment to check that your portfolio truly matches your appetite for risk.
In the meantime, keep an eye out for five signs that often precede a sharp turn ahead.
Oil prices
Before a bear: Oil prices often surge
Happened yet? Yes
Anyone who remembers the 1970s knows that rapidly rising oil prices can be poison to stocks. The quadrupling of those prices in the months following October 1973 (due to the OPEC embargo) helped send a market that was already reeling into brutal bear territory almost immediately.
Rising energy costs just before the 1990-91 Gulf War were bad news for the market too. That\'s because when oil becomes much more expensive, one of two things generally happens: stagflation or recession.
Those higher prices act like a tax on the economy, slowing growth. And because higher prices make the Federal Reserve think inflation! the Fed typically responds by raising short-term interest rates - something the stock market likes about as much as Nicole Richie likes dessert.
Fast-forward to today: Oil prices are up 20 percent year to date, approaching the record high of $78.40 a barrel.
You have to expect that these rising oil prices will catch up to businesses and consumers, says Timothy Fidler, a portfolio manager with Ariel Capital.
Treasury yields
Before a bear: Treasury yields often run up
Happened yet? Not really
Big market pullbacks tend to take place after jumps in the yield of the 10-year Treasury note. Bear markets in the mid-\'70s, early and late \'80s, early \'90s and 2000 all followed significant rises in bond yields. For example, the yield on the 10-year surged from 7 percent in January 1987 to 10.2 percent just before the October crash.
What about now? The 10-year yield rose from about 4.5 percent in mid-March to 5.2 percent in June but dropped back to around 4.7 percent in mid August.
If the yield on the 10-year went up to 6 percent, says Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist for Raymond James Financial, that could change investor psychology - and help send the bull packing.
The state of the dollar affects Treasury yields too. A weakening dollar makes foreign investors nervous about holding Treasuries; when they sell, Treasury prices fall and yields rise.
That would hit stocks, just like in 1987, says Subodh Kumar, an independent market strategist. The dollar has sagged - from $1.29 to the euro at the beginning of the year to $1.34 to the euro in mid August. If it slips further, that\'s a warning sign, Kumar says.
Number of rising stocks
Before a bear: The number of rising stocks starts to shrink
Happened yet? Has it ever
Before the market crashed in 2000, something fundamental changed. Though the overall indexes (like the Dow and the S&P 500) kept going up, those rises were being fueled by only a handful of companies, mostly Internet-related ones.
The lesson: Sizable increases in just a few stocks can mask what\'s going on in the broader market and signal that a bull is nearing a top, says Larry Haverty, a portfolio manager with Gamco Investors, an institutional investment firm. So keep an eye on market breadth - that is, how many stocks are rising compared with how many are falling.
If more stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are hitting new 52-week lows than new 52-week highs, that\'s a bad sign.
In mid-July nearly twice as many stocks were hitting new highs as new lows - a comforting sign - but by month\'s end this stat had turned downright ugly.
MORE Outlook Oil prices Treasury yields Number of rising stocks Consumer spending Corporate earnings growth MORE
Consumer spending
Before a bear: Consumer spending sometimes slows
Happened yet? Starting
It stands to reason that when people stop buying stuff, the stock market - populated with companies that sell stuff - heads south. All the major dips in consumer spending over the past 30-plus years have taken place as stocks were just beginning to slide or during prolonged declines.
The tricky part: Measurable drops in consumer spending often occur after the market has already started falling - making it a less than perfect indicator.
It\'s still important to watch, though, because experts say that slumping consumer spending could help turn what otherwise might have been a mere correction into a true bear.
So far this decade, consumers have been spending away happily - until recently. Retail sales fell 0.9% in June, bad news for companies like Home Depot, Macy\'s and Sears. And if housing prices continue to drop in many parts of the country, consumers will clutch their pocketbooks still tighter.
Brian Stine, an investment strategist with Allegiant Asset Management Co., a firm that oversees about $30 billion in assets, says, It could dramatically curb spending and even employment growth. Neither would be good.
Corporate earnings growth
Before a bear: Corporate earnings growth often slows
Happened yet? Just wait for the \'07 numbers
During the bull market of the mid- to late \'90s, average earnings for the S&P 500 rose more than 12% a year. When companies began warning of slowing profit growth in 2000, stocks started to nosedive.
Now for the current bull. From 2003 to 2006, the S&P\'s annual earnings rose more than 17%, on average. But the consensus estimate of the market strategists tracked by Thomson Financial is that earnings will grow by only 7% in 2007 - a huge change.
It\'s not hard to see why. Productivity growth is down. Wage pressures are rising. And remember those soaring energy prices we just talked about? On top of all that, long-term rates in the first half of the year were sneaking up. If that trend resumes, it will discourage companies from borrowing in order to make big investments.
If liquidity should dry up, says John Fox, co-manager of the FAM Value fund, that would be a negative.
Translation: It could make this bull look like hamburger.
MORE Outlook Oil prices Treasury yields Number of rising stocks Consumer
CNN Money的文章回答说：分析牛市是否结束是有五个标志的
第一，油价通常很高：经历过70年代的股市大跌的人一定会记得高油价是股市的毒药。1973年时，在石油输出国组织宣布禁运之后的几个月里油价翻了四倍，股市立刻进入了相当严酷的熊市。90-91年的高尔夫湾战争对股市也是起了同样的坏作用。为什么油价上涨会起到这样的危害作用？因为高油价可能导致经济发生滞涨或者衰退。对于经济来讲，高油价好比严重的税收，会减缓经济的发展。高价格还会使联邦储备警惕“ 通货膨胀” ，并且有可能会加息以对抗通货膨胀。这是投资者最担心的。到目前为止，今年油价已经长了20%，达到每桶$78.40美元。Ariel Capital的基金经理Timothy Fidler说：高涨的油价迟早会影响企业和大众消费。
第二，债券实际回报率升高：通常来讲，当美国十年债券实际回报率上升到一定程度时，股市就会下跌。从历史上看，70年代中期，80年代早期和晚期，90年代早期以及2000年的大跌都伴随著债券实际回报率的上升。比如，在1987年一月到十月，十年期债券实际回报率从7%升到10.2%，十月发生了股市大跌。那么现在状况如何？今年三月中回报率为4.5%，六月升到5.2%，八月又降到4.7%。Raymond James Financial的主要投资策划Jeffery Saut说“如果回报率升到6%，牛气的投资者就要卷铺盖回家了”。弱势美元对债券也有很不好的影响，当美元贬值，外国投资者会抛出美元，导致美国债券价格下跌，实际回报上升。美元对欧元的比价从今年一个的1.29降到八月时的1.34，如果再进一步跌的话，投资者应该将其做为一个警告信号
第三，股市中上升的股票数量少过跌的：在2000年股市大跌之前，股市的基础已经出现动摇，虽然股市的总指数一直上升，但是真正上升的股票只是那么几只。这段历史给大家的教训就是，指数上升可能是少数股票造成的，有时会掩盖整个股市牛市已经到顶的真相。所以大家应该关注整个股市的健康状况－有多少股票在升，有多少在跌。如果创本年度新高的股票比创新低的股票少，就是一个不好的标志。在今年七月时创新高的股票是创新低股票的两倍－这是一个好现象，不过本月这个情况就颠倒了。
第四，大众消费减弱：很容易理解，当大众减少消费时，股市－主要是由出售产品的公司组成－通常会下跌。在过去的三十年里，每次大众消费减少时通常伴随著股市下滑。有意思的是，消费较少一般在股市下跌之后，所以这很难做为一个标志。不过，大众消费仍然是值得关注的指标。专家说，大众消费有时能把股市中一个普通的调整变成一个熊市。本世纪以来，大众消费状况一直不错。直到今年六月，零售指数降了0.9%，很多连锁大商场的销售都不好。如果房地产继续走跌，消费者自然会将荷包看得紧一些。
第五，企业利润减少：在九十年代未期的牛市。标准普尔五百中的公司的业绩增长率平均为每年12%。2000年时不少公司宣布业绩会减少，股市开始大跌。在这次牛市中，从2003-2006年，标准普尔五百中的公司的业绩增长率平均为每年17%。但是据分析2007年这些公司的业绩增长率是7%，这是非常大的变化。为什么业绩会降下来？因为生产力的增长降低，工资压力增大，别忘了能源价格上涨了不少，利息率上升－如果利率持续上升的话，公司会减少贷款，因此而减少对企业的投资。
从以上几个标志来看，牛现在正受著煎熬。
5 ways to know if the bull is over
Before it keels over, a bull market typically leaves a few road signs. Here\'s what to keep an eye on - from Money Magazine.
Since Money Magazine last examined the health of the bull market (and pronounced it sound), consumer spending began slowing, several prominent buyout deals unraveled, and oh yeah - concerns about subprime mortgage loans going bad caused stocks to fall off a cliff.
After closing above 14,000 for the first time in late July, the Dow has since plunged nearly 1400 points, or 9.8 percent, close to an official correction. The S&P 500 has given up all of its gains for the year.
All this has added a certain cogency to the view that the five-year-old bull could be closer to the end of its road. So while you know better than to try to time the market - and you do, don\'t you? - now is a good moment to check that your portfolio truly matches your appetite for risk.
In the meantime, keep an eye out for five signs that often precede a sharp turn ahead.
Oil prices
Before a bear: Oil prices often surge
Happened yet? Yes
Anyone who remembers the 1970s knows that rapidly rising oil prices can be poison to stocks. The quadrupling of those prices in the months following October 1973 (due to the OPEC embargo) helped send a market that was already reeling into brutal bear territory almost immediately.
Rising energy costs just before the 1990-91 Gulf War were bad news for the market too. That\'s because when oil becomes much more expensive, one of two things generally happens: stagflation or recession.
Those higher prices act like a tax on the economy, slowing growth. And because higher prices make the Federal Reserve think inflation! the Fed typically responds by raising short-term interest rates - something the stock market likes about as much as Nicole Richie likes dessert.
Fast-forward to today: Oil prices are up 20 percent year to date, approaching the record high of $78.40 a barrel.
You have to expect that these rising oil prices will catch up to businesses and consumers, says Timothy Fidler, a portfolio manager with Ariel Capital.
Treasury yields
Before a bear: Treasury yields often run up
Happened yet? Not really
Big market pullbacks tend to take place after jumps in the yield of the 10-year Treasury note. Bear markets in the mid-\'70s, early and late \'80s, early \'90s and 2000 all followed significant rises in bond yields. For example, the yield on the 10-year surged from 7 percent in January 1987 to 10.2 percent just before the October crash.
What about now? The 10-year yield rose from about 4.5 percent in mid-March to 5.2 percent in June but dropped back to around 4.7 percent in mid August.
If the yield on the 10-year went up to 6 percent, says Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist for Raymond James Financial, that could change investor psychology - and help send the bull packing.
The state of the dollar affects Treasury yields too. A weakening dollar makes foreign investors nervous about holding Treasuries; when they sell, Treasury prices fall and yields rise.
That would hit stocks, just like in 1987, says Subodh Kumar, an independent market strategist. The dollar has sagged - from $1.29 to the euro at the beginning of the year to $1.34 to the euro in mid August. If it slips further, that\'s a warning sign, Kumar says.
Number of rising stocks
Before a bear: The number of rising stocks starts to shrink
Happened yet? Has it ever
Before the market crashed in 2000, something fundamental changed. Though the overall indexes (like the Dow and the S&P 500) kept going up, those rises were being fueled by only a handful of companies, mostly Internet-related ones.
The lesson: Sizable increases in just a few stocks can mask what\'s going on in the broader market and signal that a bull is nearing a top, says Larry Haverty, a portfolio manager with Gamco Investors, an institutional investment firm. So keep an eye on market breadth - that is, how many stocks are rising compared with how many are falling.
If more stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are hitting new 52-week lows than new 52-week highs, that\'s a bad sign.
In mid-July nearly twice as many stocks were hitting new highs as new lows - a comforting sign - but by month\'s end this stat had turned downright ugly.
MORE Outlook Oil prices Treasury yields Number of rising stocks Consumer spending Corporate earnings growth MORE
Consumer spending
Before a bear: Consumer spending sometimes slows
Happened yet? Starting
It stands to reason that when people stop buying stuff, the stock market - populated with companies that sell stuff - heads south. All the major dips in consumer spending over the past 30-plus years have taken place as stocks were just beginning to slide or during prolonged declines.
The tricky part: Measurable drops in consumer spending often occur after the market has already started falling - making it a less than perfect indicator.
It\'s still important to watch, though, because experts say that slumping consumer spending could help turn what otherwise might have been a mere correction into a true bear.
So far this decade, consumers have been spending away happily - until recently. Retail sales fell 0.9% in June, bad news for companies like Home Depot, Macy\'s and Sears. And if housing prices continue to drop in many parts of the country, consumers will clutch their pocketbooks still tighter.
Brian Stine, an investment strategist with Allegiant Asset Management Co., a firm that oversees about $30 billion in assets, says, It could dramatically curb spending and even employment growth. Neither would be good.
Corporate earnings growth
Before a bear: Corporate earnings growth often slows
Happened yet? Just wait for the \'07 numbers
During the bull market of the mid- to late \'90s, average earnings for the S&P 500 rose more than 12% a year. When companies began warning of slowing profit growth in 2000, stocks started to nosedive.
Now for the current bull. From 2003 to 2006, the S&P\'s annual earnings rose more than 17%, on average. But the consensus estimate of the market strategists tracked by Thomson Financial is that earnings will grow by only 7% in 2007 - a huge change.
It\'s not hard to see why. Productivity growth is down. Wage pressures are rising. And remember those soaring energy prices we just talked about? On top of all that, long-term rates in the first half of the year were sneaking up. If that trend resumes, it will discourage companies from borrowing in order to make big investments.
If liquidity should dry up, says John Fox, co-manager of the FAM Value fund, that would be a negative.
Translation: It could make this bull look like hamburger.
MORE Outlook Oil prices Treasury yields Number of rising stocks Consumer
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