明天Job Report 的三种可能和对市场的影响,,,及对策

1. Job Report are very good. > 100K (less likely)  市场会先涨后跌. (也许周五涨, 下周一跌)
Strong number will relieve the serious concern about economy slipping into recession in 2nd half. as well as recently subprime crisis. In turn it will give market a boost. But strong number will soon cause the new concern about inflation which does not support Fed judgement; and diminish the chance of Fed rate cut on June/July time frame which already priced in the market.

对策: Sell into the strenth and stay in sideline, wait and see.

2. Job Report btw 60K and 90K (Most likely) 小跌, 小涨
It will be acceptable considering the large error margin in recent job report. No big suprise. But it may has some down days next week.

对策: Day trading in both side. Trading water.

3. Job Report blow 50K 大跌

This will cause a serious concern about economy. Subprime meldown, and credit spreads will re-surface and scare off  investors. Stagflation will become real concern again. (Dollar accelate devalue, exchange rate down rapidly, gold will shoot to sky high. Oil price skyrock. etc.)

对策: Cut and run when you have chance. (If you still keep a large position and did not escape this week.) Stay in sideline for at least three months. Or short market on any tradable recovery.

JMHO