大跌在既, 今天也许是逃命的最后机会!

对大千来说我是新来的. 过去两个月我只看不贴. 从各位的文章中我受益非浅. 今天也说两句算是对大千的一点回馈.

为什么看跌?

1. S&P 500 从7/17 在1231见底后已连涨了六周, 向上的动力已耗尽. 在9/5 S&P at 1313 Top off. 你可以从最近的 K 线和Price/volume action得到证实.

2. 领涨的Sectors such as SEMI, 金融股开始退缩. NVDA/SNDK/RIMM/AMD/BRCM fail to make further advance and start to pullback significantly. SC/BSC/MS/JPM/WFC/GE already started to decline.

3. Q2 end and Q3 warning period just started. Already had several warnings from builder and retail sector.

4. Inflation fear and economy slow down worry are surfing again.

The least resistance for next two weeks is down.

(Sorry 我中文打的很慢,只好写 English)

Today's rally is forming the double top pattern.  Next week the major driving force will focus on down side.

Last FED meeting halted rate (because of slowing down economy and waiting for more data from the market) is not good news. It pushes market higher for sometime and pretty much ran its course already. When majority of wall street MM back from vacation, they will refocus on slowing down economy and uncertainty of infulation. That will start to push market down. Before FED has clear signal of STOP rate hake, inflation is always a hurdle for market to go higher.

9/5 SPX at 1313 is the top we will not see for long time from now.( Until middle of Dec.)

(There are many detail TA to identify 9/5's top and today's double top. But I can not list them all.)

今天也许是最后的逃命机会.

至少要做好准备,以免重大的财务损失.  You can use different strategy to reduce down side risks such as buy puts or 对冲.

Reverse fund QID  is good way to protect your down side if you have bought QQQQ. QID is Ulta Short fund against NDX. Meaning when NDX down, QID will go up. (2 times, 1:2 radio). You can buy it to short NDX. Just like you buy stock.  This is also good for bearish play without option's time decay risks.

Just my two cents.

Happy trading.