好消息,坏消息 -- 有趣的观察

Sometimes the bad news could be "good news" depends on how you interpret it and what is your stand.

I have some interesting observision recently to share w/t everyone here.

1. This morning, the internation trade report shows -68 Billion (贸易逆差)vs -66B expected

Normally this is a bad news. First it is historical high trade deficit. And secondly it surpassed consusene number. It is weaking dollar and in turn will push the inflation higher.

But the Bulls interpret it differently: The high trade deficit means Amercan bought more products from other countries, means the domestic demend is still very strong, and in turn the economy is strong. (Opposite to slowing economy)
So this is "good news". Indeep market reflect that in today's trading.

2. Similarly BBY has lower the whole year earning forecast and lower than expectation. Pre-market did reflact it as bad news and stock drop $0.40 in PM, but you know what BBY up $4.39 in normal hours because market picks the good news: it beats 2 cents for current quarter, means consumer spending was strong. And ingore perspective of future poor quarter. Bad news again become good news.

3. I can list much more examples:
- National Semicondutor had lower it Q3 earnings twice in a month, you know what? the stock price goes up 10% in a week

4. ATI lower its Q3 earnings as much as 100 million, because it will lose Intel's chipset business due to AMD acquisition. Both ATI and AMD price drop in pre-market but up 3% in normal hour trading..

5. LEN and RYL report earning short fall and lower their earnings significantly, but both up more than $1 in the same trading day.

There are a lot more I can list here.
Economy seems trending "Softlanding" But regardless soft landing or hard landing it is "landing" Why we can see the new highs in the horizon with so many uncertainties still in course?

Only one can explain: The market has BULL bias.
So, good news is excellent news and bad news is good news ...

I feel scary about the force of Blind Bull. Is it a "irrational exuberance" again?

Is this a sign that market near the top?

The market will come back to rational reaction sonner or later. Bad news is bad news. What goes up will come down.

We just need to protect ourselve not be caught unguardly when it comes down.

Just my two cents.