股海余生

股市的观察,讨论. 以股会友.
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我不太成功的市场分析......

(2006-09-12 10:40:29) 下一个
Finacial and Semi again become leading sectors. Semi may gain some strenth from yesterday's news that FSL will go privite. This could become a trend for some Semi Company's buy out.
But it should be a very short term driving force.

GS's Er this morning brought some strenth to financial sector.
and oil price drop stimulate Retail and Home builders and consumer discretionary sectors which are inflation senstive sectors. The money out flow from energy, gold and basic material industry ( metal, steel, copper etc.) to Semi, Retail and consumer disretionary sectors instead of withdraw from the market.(Sector rotation) But I doubt it has another leg up.
More likely the SPX may retest strong hold resistance at 1313-1318 and trigger the down trend from there if test fail.

The take away from my not quite succeful analysis is the carfully analysis of the market situation is good, but you should always prepare to adjust trading tactic based on market condition especially you are in the wrong side of market.

我很欣赏柴兄的一句话:做市场的跟随者. 虽然应该有自己的判断, 但还是应该根据市场的情况,及时调整自己的战术.

总体来讲, 我还是认为市场会有一波向下行情,也许时间会晚一点.

Happy Trading.
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