我为何觉得股市反弹在即

股市反弹在即的原因

FA:

(1)SP500 is trading for 15.30x 2007 and 13.50x 2008 earnings, very

attractive.

Anyone know what is the PE for SP500 in 2000?


(2)The P/E for the overall market translates to an earnings yield of

7.2%, which is far more attractive than the 4.02% level available on

a 10 year T-Note today

Anyone know what is 10 year T-Note yield in 2000

(3) The trouble sector is financial in 2007, Can Fed help? Yes.

The trouble sector was Tech in 2000, Could Fed help? not

much.



TA:

(1)6周的调整接近尾声, 历次大调整都是6-7周. 多数6周结束（牛市是真结束

，熊市是暂停，反弹后，接着跌）.

(2)大盘处于严重超卖状态, 这周每天都是以近千个股票创52周新低.

(3)NAZ强劲, 6周只跌10%, 2000年大熊开始时, NAZ 6周从高位跌了28%才有反

弹(SP500 也是跌15%以上).

(4)尽管各指数都跌破200MA, 但破而不慌, 目前可看成牛市深度调整. 且已调

整到位.

(5)SP500 1410是个很好的支撑．今天收在1416.


综合我的TA和FA, 反弹在即! 以后的牛熊,视反弹的力度而定.


一般中长期我是看200MA,但也要具体分析.


GOOD LUCK!