正文
so master Qiu is telling people to sell LDK to time the wave, superb if it works out, but inherently I think that's a risky way to handle it,
ER tomorrow, as we all know, the official number now stands at 0.37, whisper numbers have been as high as 0.42,
there is quite some probability for a "sell on news" since ER might as well mark the end of the stream of news for short term, and as we know LDK is quite deviated from the moving average (9 day EMA at around 58) for now,
so it's temping,
------------------------------
BUT,
imho the most important event is not ER tomorrow, it's the CC which some have billed as the "most listened to CC" in 2007,
there will be a tremendous amount of information revealed in CC, some about past audit, some about scheduling of poly factory in 2008, particularly how soon they can have initial products, some about possibly new contracts, etc etc, jam packed would be an understatement,
the final market reaction to the ER and CC is, as much as digging as I had put into it, very much 50%-50% as of now.
the chance that LDK taking off as BIDU is alive and real,
------------------------------
So,
I have a very different take on Qiu's suggestion,
the better way, in my judgement, is to divide your holding into 3 pieces, core, swing, speculation part. Either 1/3 each or 60%/30%/10%. Each has different time frame and objective. For the core, if you believe the company and market, then hold for long term and don't get distracted with daily up and down. For the waving part, try to find a possible mid term peak/valley based on trend and moving averaging lines and price/vol relationship, and arrive at a conclusion that would feel comfortable to your own risk profile. For the speculation part, you can do in and out as much as the conditions warrant, within days or intradays, stock or options or whatever combos.
The whole idea is, it's probably not the best thinking to try to time a potentially homerun stock, as anyone who have traded GOOG/BIDU etc would know. It's exceedingly easy to lose your positions and exceedingly hard psychologically to chase after you have stepped out.
If all what's said here is too complicated to you, maybe take a half-half approach, take half profit and let half run... hey, you never know!
all good luck,
ER tomorrow, as we all know, the official number now stands at 0.37, whisper numbers have been as high as 0.42,
there is quite some probability for a "sell on news" since ER might as well mark the end of the stream of news for short term, and as we know LDK is quite deviated from the moving average (9 day EMA at around 58) for now,
so it's temping,
------------------------------
BUT,
imho the most important event is not ER tomorrow, it's the CC which some have billed as the "most listened to CC" in 2007,
there will be a tremendous amount of information revealed in CC, some about past audit, some about scheduling of poly factory in 2008, particularly how soon they can have initial products, some about possibly new contracts, etc etc, jam packed would be an understatement,
the final market reaction to the ER and CC is, as much as digging as I had put into it, very much 50%-50% as of now.
the chance that LDK taking off as BIDU is alive and real,
------------------------------
So,
I have a very different take on Qiu's suggestion,
the better way, in my judgement, is to divide your holding into 3 pieces, core, swing, speculation part. Either 1/3 each or 60%/30%/10%. Each has different time frame and objective. For the core, if you believe the company and market, then hold for long term and don't get distracted with daily up and down. For the waving part, try to find a possible mid term peak/valley based on trend and moving averaging lines and price/vol relationship, and arrive at a conclusion that would feel comfortable to your own risk profile. For the speculation part, you can do in and out as much as the conditions warrant, within days or intradays, stock or options or whatever combos.
The whole idea is, it's probably not the best thinking to try to time a potentially homerun stock, as anyone who have traded GOOG/BIDU etc would know. It's exceedingly easy to lose your positions and exceedingly hard psychologically to chase after you have stepped out.
If all what's said here is too complicated to you, maybe take a half-half approach, take half profit and let half run... hey, you never know!
all good luck,
评论
博主已隐藏评论
博主已关闭评论
