子夜读书心筆

写日记的另一层妙用,就是一天辛苦下来,夜深人静,借境调心,景与心会。有了这种时时静悟的简静心态, 才有了对生活的敬重。
个人资料
不忘中囯 (热门博主)
  • 博客访问:
正文

财经观察 2020 --- Just Another Bear Rally?

(2009-05-03 20:56:52) 下一个
Just Another Bear Rally? by David I. Templeton

Could the market's recent advance simply be one of several bear rallies we can expect to experience in this secular bear market that began in 2000? As the below chart notes, the current rally in the Dow is shorten in duration and magnitude than the average 1929-1932 bear market rally.
It is not uncommon to have these bull runs in secular bear markets. Crestmont Research has a nice table of past secular bear and bull markets that detail the intermediate bull and bear periods within each cycle. Even in bear markets, such as in the bear market of 1966-1981, there were nine positive years that generated an average return of 13%. The entire 16 year period saw the market return -10% from the beginning to the end of the bear period.

Secular Bear Market Table

I noted in an earlier post today that investor cash now exceeds the value of assets invested in equities. So maybe this sideline cash is warranted and won't find its way into equities?

[ 打印 ]
阅读 ()评论 (0)
评论
目前还没有任何评论
登录后才可评论.