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My Diary 458 --- What will a 2010 market look like?

(2008-10-24 02:17:30) 下一个

*** NOT A SALES COMMENTARY, Got this off a friend. It’s a joke, don’t take it too serious. TGIF!****        

Asian markets trade small up, with the Nikkei pushing above 2000, Kospi back above its recent support of 30 and the HSI, while unch at 3250, sees a notable pick up in volume at HKD 1.5 bn for the day. Only mkt to decline was Taiwan, with most stocks limit down at -10bp for the 350th straight session. Pad was mixed with 2 buys and 2 sells. Selling was pre-dominantly from retail, buying was actually an error.

In stock specific news, in HK ICBC rallied 2% after agreeing on the terms of it's US$100mm CitiSachsStanley acquisition, China Mobile announces it will deploy some of its surplus cash to acquire Vietnam, subject to regulatory approval. Cathay Pacific traffic numbers for Oct exceed analyst fcsts with 10 take-offs, 10 landings, 34 passengers, 4 pets. The company also announces a new business class service called “business saver” where seats have been replaced with ceiling handle straps and a cage. Finally several broker's downgrade Shenhua Coal with valuations appearing excessive at 0.5x PE and 0.2x P/B and following reports that power demand has fallen 80% in the financial districts of Shanghai and Hong Kong as offices resort to firewood to keep traders and lawyers warm during the winter months.

Elsewhere, in Taiwan, Taiwan United Power Semi Conductor trades limit up +10bp on rumoured government intervention after authorities raise personal taxes to 95% to generate another $10,000 for the National Stabilisation Fund. In Korea LG Samsung maintains 4Q earnings guidance with sales of security and self defense systems to the US civil war offsetting a decline in LCD and household appliances to China. AchelorMittalPoscoCVRDBHPRio continues it’s tussle to acquire Tata Steel from the Indian farmers, and Hyundai Motor rolls out it's first foot powered wooden car called the “flintstone” in an effort to penetrate the executive market in Europe. Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia remain shut indefinitely, Singapore remains closed for its thirty week long “casino day” public holiday, in an effort to get attendance up at the Temasek Sands Casino.

On the research front, while a little late on the call, we cut our 2011 & 12 growth forecast for China to 30bp, and keep HK unemployment and inflation forecasts unchanged at 35% and 20% respectively. Our only analyst returns by bus from a China Life Investor Tour confirming premium growth targets will be met with the company engaging the People Liberation Army to sell it’s life policies at gun point in Xi’an and Beijing. Finally our quant team, now also processing tickets in operations, advises that Sun Hung Kai will come out of the HSI this Friday, replaced by Shun Tak which has seen its market cap treble of late on reports regulators will allow state banks to utilize tier 1 capital for low risk and well managed gambling investments in roulette, black jack and baccarat in Macau.

Last of all, with brokers and traders expected to riot in central this evening, and following the late cancellation of our head of equity finance and capital intro, attendance has fallen slightly at our annual investor conference this week. Accordingly we have now moved the conference from the Grand Hyatt to my one bedroom apartment in the New Territories. Head of Global Markets will be there to promote our new “sing for an order” initiative. Unfortunately post conference drinks have been cancelled at Sevva while they raise the height of the glass balustrade on the roof in fear of more jumpers. Hope you can join us.

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