财经观察 1345 --- 10 links to walk you through today’s financial cri

让你度过金融危机的十个必看链接


关于当前经济形势评论，以及一些基本的理财理念。当然，更重要的是：链接，还有由此引出的广泛阅读及独立思考的好习惯。

最近我收到了很多关于经济和紧急救助的邮件，所以我想把近两个星期度过的文章列出来。我也加上了自己的评论，还有相关链接以作为评论的支撑。我想：如果你读了这些链接，你会比大街上的绝大多数人都能理解经济。（最近总有些傻瓜，他们认为未来的美国会1.银行破产，2.收回全国的抵押，3.经济会崩溃）

1.忘了那些凭感觉的媒体

有人找出了在紧急救助时期最好的一篇报道，在我写《真恶心 媒体的预测能力太差了》一文时，我标出了各种媒体是如何大胆提出预测的，这些预测完全错误，而且永远无法自圆其说。

在这个例子，财富杂志强力推荐AIG为“10大现在值得买入的股票”，这个他们后来道歉了。而在他们刊出“2008年最佳股票”中，美林赫然在列。

2.让人惊讶的对冲基金

这个让人吃惊不小，我是说——在糟糕的方面：对冲基金做好准备应对投资者赎回，很多人都没有听说过对冲基金的赎回条款，基本上，它说的是，财务投资者今天就可以拿回他们的钱。如果此事真的发生，没有人会知道有什么反应，可能它们会很惨。我写过一篇《为什么对冲基金被投资者高估》。

3.我们太健忘了

如果你认为历史不是简单的重复，你错了。事实上，10年前的这个月，长期投资管理者，一个对冲基金，差点造成全球经济崩溃。今天，我们又被同一个词汇所包围，真的有人相信投资银行家在未来不会再拿高薪？或者我们不会逐渐回到那种主管拿高薪的时代？就像我上个星期所说的，没有人真的在乎散户，起作用的是选择正确的策略并且坚持执行。

4.我们能从巴菲特哪里学到什么

这里有一份很长的巴菲特访谈，它能教你很多关于长线投资，肯定你所知以及你所未知。而我，刚刚订购了这本巴菲特的新书。

5.你应该买入？卖出？或者干点别的？

“我应该赎回我的401基金”，在10个人发给我这个链接后，我明白自己应该仔细看看。这个文章里，24岁的BODIE RARTSCH 担心经济并考虑赎回他退休基金里的钱，他说：“我想让钱躺在我厨房的储蓄罐里，应该比401更安全”。错了！下面引用我即将出版的新书里的段落：

最近，一个叫Dimensional基金研究了标准普尔指数1970年2月至2006年12月之间的表现，在这段时间里，市场每年的平均回报率为11.1%，他们也指出一些让人吃惊的事实，在1970至1986年的16年间，如果你错过了市场表现最佳的25天，你的回报率会从11.1%降低到7.6%，这个不同让人遗憾。

那么，如果我们知道市场在哪一天会大涨，问题就解决了。

但是，毫无疑问，我们办不到。试着选择入场时机是傻子干的事情。所以当你花销尽可能自觉的时候，就开始小心而且用技巧投资。

还有这个来自JLP的链接，看起来市场之乱已经吓坏了年轻的投资者，文中提到：

当我们所作与我们应该做的完全背离时，是不是很疯狂？如果股市不断的上涨，上涨，上涨，人们会坐立不安，买那些实际已经偏高的股票，现在，股市下跌了，大家却又选择观望。

6.一些很有用的经济数据

The New York Times把一些数据形象化，给你全新的新闻影响，看一看地球上的其他邻居都买什么和损失惨重的一年，前者提到：

人们如何花钱?-用于购买衣服、电子产品、休闲娱乐、家居用品或者是酒，取决于他们住在哪儿。希腊人买衣服花的钱是电子产品的13倍，日本人则在休闲娱乐上花费的钱超出衣服电子产品和家具用品的总和。美国人在任何东西上都喜欢花大笔的钱。

7.问答：紧急援助究竟会如何进行？

你不明白下面会发生什么，是因为没有人猜到。但是，关于经济形势有一些很优秀的观点，我赞同这个，Suze Orman告诉人们下面的问题：

一年赚3万9，却要花10万会导致什么。

首次购房者犯下的大错。（提示：1500美元的债务和解款是两个概念）

当你的互助基金从12万跌到8万8，我们该做点什么？

在如此乱世，还该持有股票型基金吗？

怎么才能买辆车（我不同意她的看法）

The New York Times专栏作家David Leonhardt的概述很不错。

8.从Gmail中学习如何理财

我最近在科技杂志上看到了这篇报道，它显示了GMAIL的原始设计方案，但是我们看到的只是最终版本。同样的道理也可以用在有钱人身上，我们听到了某人蜜月花了5万美元，或者开全新的奔驰车，但是我们没有看到他们艰苦的努力过程。这个理论对解释今天的经济尤其重要：很多人开着名车，买了他所无法负担的豪宅。而那些蒙声发财的人在这方面做得很好，《隔壁的百万富翁》这本个人理财书中有很多这样的例子。（另外，如果你最近没有买到什么好理财书籍，或者没有什么办法可以投资获利，不妨读读这个）。

9.不要被人愚弄

不要把白痴当朋友。如果你看过这个网站，你能理解到：要想让你的钱在投资方面有足够弹性，需要20，30，或者40年时间。在这个大前提下，似乎人们都很盲目，狂热的从一个报纸翻到另一个。这样做不只是把目光放错了地方，还会做出错误的理财决定，几年以后，一定会捶胸顿足的说为什么我没赚到。如果你只有一家公司的股票——哪怕你就在该公司任职——你就太傻了；如果你买了一个100万美元的房子却没有相关调查，仅仅觉得这是一笔好投资，你就太傻了；如果你没有意识到昂贵而无用的互助基金在你的余生会花费数万美元，你就太傻了；担心那些你能控制的事情，而不是报纸头条。

10.多阅读

我的delicious书签每天更新，特别是理财方面。

All right, guys. I’ve gotten lots of emails about what’s going on with the economy and bailout, so I thought I’d put together a list of the articles I’ve been reading over the last two weeks. I added my own commentary to them below, plus links to stuff I’ve written that agrees/disagrees with each of the articles. My guess: If you read these links, you’ll understand more about the economy than nearly anyone you meet on the street. (Especially some of the fools I’ve been hearing lately, who are convinced that the U.S. will (1) go bankrupt, (2) start owning every mortgage in the country, and (3) think the entire financial system will be “crashing,” whatever that means.)

* * *

1. Ignore the Sensationalist Media
Gawker pulls off one of the finest pieces of reporting on the bailout. When I wrote The Media is Atrociously Bad at Prediction and I’m Sick of It, I highlighted how various business media point make bold predictions, get it completely wrong, and are never held accountable.

In this case, Fortune highlighted AIG as one of “10 Stocks to Buy Now.” When they later apologized, they posted “The Best Stocks for 2008,” which, as Gawker points out, included…Merrill Lynch.

2. Hedge Fund Surprise?
This is like a tuna surprise, only worse: Hedge Funds Are Bracing for Investors to Cash Out. Many people haven’t heard about hedge funds’ redemption clauses, which basically means that fancy investors (e.g., universities, pension funds, and really wealthy people) will be able to withdraw their money today (Tuesday, 9/29/08). If that happens, nobody really knows what the repercussions could be…but they would probably be Very Bad. I’ve previously written about why hedge funds are overrated for investors.

3. We Have Short-Term Memories.
If you think history doesn’t repeat itself, you’re nuts. In fact, 10 years ago this month, Long Term Capital Management, a huge hedge fund, nearly caused a global financial collapse. Yet here we are — with the same words being thrown around. Does anyone really think investment bankers won’t make their same salaries at some point in the future? Or that we won’t gradually move back to huge executive compensation? Still, as I pointed out last week, none of that really matters to the individual investor. What matters is picking the right strategy and sticking to it.

4. What We Can Learn From Warren Buffett
Huge, long Warren Buffett interview. He is the man. Read this. It teaches you so much about long-term investing and admitting what you know — and don’t know. Note: I just ordered this new book on Warren Buffett.

5. Should You Buy More? Sell More? Something???!
“Should I withdraw money from my 401(k)?” After 10 people sent me this link, I knew I had to check it out. In the article, 24-year old Bodie Partsch worries about the economy and contemplates withdrawing money from his retirement account, saying, “I could have the money sitting in a jar on my kitchen counter. It’d be safer than in my 401(k),” he said. BAD MOVE! Here’s a quote from my upcoming book:

Recently, a group called Dimensional Funds studied the performance of the S&P 500 from January 1970 to December 2006, during which time the annualized return of the market was 11.1%. They also noted something amazing: Of those 36 years from 1970 to 1986, if you missed the 25 days when the stock market performed the best, your return would have dropped from 11.1% to 7.6%, a crippling difference.

Now, if only we could know the best investing days ahead of time.

But, of course, you can’t. Trying to time the market is for fools. So you keep investing carefully and methodically, while spending as consciously as possible.

I’ll also add this link from JLP: It looks like Market Turmoil is Scaring Off Young Investors, where he notes:

Isn’t it crazy how we do the exact opposite of what we should be doing? If the stock market was going up, up, UP, people would be jumping in left and right—essentially buying over-priced stocks. Now that the market is on a downswing, people are sitting on the sidelines.

6. Cool Data Visualizations of The Economy
The New York Times does extraordinary data visualizations to give you a fresh perspective on the news. Check out What Your Global Neighbors Are Buying and A Year of Heavy Losses. From the first one:

How people spend their discretionary income – the cash that goes to clothing, electronics, recreation, household goods, alcohol – depends a lot on where they live. People in Greece spend almost 13 times more money on clothing as they do on electronics. People living in Japan spend more on recreation than they do on clothing, electronics and household goods combined. Americans spend a lot of money on everything.

7. Q&A: What’s Actually Going On With the Bailout?
If you don’t understand exactly what’s going on, that’s because nobody does. But there are some excellent overviews of the financial situation floating around. I like this one by Suze Orman, where she tells people the following:

• What to do with $100,000 in debt and a $39k/year job.
• The huge mistake first-time homebuyers make. (Hint: A $1,500 rent is not the same as a $1,500 mortgage.)
• What to do when your mutual fund’s account value drops from $120,000 to $88,000.
• Should you stick with stock funds in this tumultuous environment?
• How to buy a car (I disagree with her on this one).

I also like this overview by NY Times Columnist David Leonhardt. If you like audio, check out this excellent program from This American Life. Finally, last week I linked to this excellent explanation of the market crisis on the Freakonomics blog.

8. What Gmail Has To Do With Your Money
I’ve been thinking about this post on a tech blog recently. It shows the early sketches/designs of Gmail, and what you realize from looking at them is that we only see the finished result — not the sausage-making in the back room. The same is true of rich people: We hear about people going on $50,000 honeymoons or driving brand-new Mercedes, but we don’t see the hard work behind it. This is an important concept that’s being more revealed with today’s economy: Many of the people who drove the expensive cars and bought the expensive houses couldn’t afford it. The people who were quietly accumulating wealth will do much better. Read more about this in one of my favorite personal-finance books, The Millionaire Next Door. (Btw, if you haven’t bought a couple good finance books recently — or anything that will help you turn your income into more money so you can hit your goals — please read this.)

9. Don’t Let Your Friends Be Morons
Don’t let your friends be idiots. If you read this site, chances are you understand that having 20, 30, or 40 years before you need your money gives you plenty of flexibility to invest for the long term, even with major or minor dips in the market. Yet with these terrifying headlines every day, it’s like people have become blind, yet highly literate zombies who wander aimlessly from one newspaper to another. Being dumb is not just focusing on the wrong things, it’s making poor financial decisions and then throwing up your hands and wondering why you don’t have enough money a few years later. If you own only one stock — especially if it’s your employer’s stock — then you are a fool. If you are going to buy a $1 million house with no research because you think it’s a good investment, you are a fool. If you don’t realize that your expensive, worthless mutual fund is costing you tens of thousands of dollars over your lifetime, you are a fool. Worry about the things you can control, not the headlines.

10. Get More Reading Material
Want more links? I keep my delicious bookmarks up to date every day, especially the section on finance.