财经报告之二 --- 是G8改变的时候了（一）

《高盛经济报告》, Jim O’Neill，Robert Hormats

 

[摘要] 在增长前景不明朗、通货膨胀上升、石油价格达到创纪录高水平的时代，谁能引导世界经济呢？现有的国际组织能够胜任这一工作吗？或者，现在是否应改革全球经济结构，给新兴经济体以更大的发言权？未来几年这些国家将在世界经济中发挥越来越重要的作用。 我们的著名观点是现有的国际机构，特别是七国集团，已经过时了，应该被彻底改革。5月七国集团财长发表声明，呼吁产油国扩大生产，以平抑上涨的原油价格，是该观点的进一步证据。对我们来说最有趣的是，这是七国集团连续第四次对其无法直接控制的事情发表声明。之前三次七国集团会议令人注意的是，七国集团呼吁非该集团的亚洲国家采取更加富有弹性的货币制度。

　　（海外论坛·北京）谁会听从七国集团呢？
　　
　　在增长前景不明朗、通货膨胀上升、石油价格达到创纪录高水平的时代，谁能引导世界经济呢？现有的国际组织能够胜任这一工作吗？或者，现在是否应改革全球经济结构，给新兴经济体以更大的发言权？未来几年这些国家将在世界经济中发挥越来越重要的作用。
　　
　　我们的著名观点是现有的国际机构，特别是七国集团，已经过时了，应该被彻底改革。5月七国集团财长发表声明，呼吁产油国扩大生产，以平抑上涨的原油价格，是该观点的进一步证据。对我们来说最有趣的是，这是七国集团连续第四次对其无法直接控制的事情发表声明。之前三次七国集团会议令人注意的是，七国集团呼吁非该集团的亚洲国家采取更加富有弹性的货币制度。
　　
　　七国集团意在采取政策行动以使世界经济发展更加持久，这样做是对的。然而，七国集团不可能对这些问题产生任何直接影响。而且七国集团的成员国们也不清楚它们准备给目标国什么激励，以说服这些国家采取对全球有利的政策。所有这些公告都表明七国集团在当今世界的影响力日益降低。
　　
　　现在是领导世界经济的国际组织进行机构改革的时候了。具体的，我们建议七国集团吸纳中国扩展为八国集团，提升20国集团的地位，并建立新组织F8（Financial Eight），以取代七国集团财长和央行行长会议。
　　
　　
　　八国集团首脑会议：改变的时间
　　
　　下周八国集团的领导人将在佐治亚州举行年度首脑会议，与1975年发起该会议的他们的前任相比，这些领导人面对着迥然不同的世界。那时美国、日本和一些欧洲国家主导国际经济，它们占据着世界GDP、金融和商业活动的相当大部分。这些国家控制着贸易谈判、货币联盟及其他大部分国际经济问题----除了石油之外。石油推动了首脑会议的进程。1975年六个欧洲国家举行会谈，希望研究对策以克服1973年阿以战争之后阿拉伯国家石油禁运所造成的经济衰退。具有讽刺意味的是，石油又将成为一个主要议题，因为召开会议的国家在随后的时间里为减少对石油的依赖做的太少。
　　
　　
　　上世纪70年代，中国刚刚开始参与世界贸易，激烈的市场化改革甚至还没有开始。印度的技术繁荣是20年之后的事情。欧盟只有9个成员国。苏联作为一个共产主义国家仍然存在，试图破坏西方市场经济体系。伊拉克是美国的盟友。主要的核问题是确保能互相破坏，而不是核扩散。
　　
　　
　　最初的首脑会议与之前举行的任何会议都不相同。它不是由协议或正式外交会议确定举办的，如同世界贸易组织或世界银行那样。相反的，它被计划成是一次性的事件----一个非正式聚会----是德国总理赫尔穆特·施密特和法国总统瓦拉利·吉斯卡·德斯坦（他们以前都是财政部长）的主意。吉斯卡邀请施密特以及美国、日本、英国和意大利的首脑举行会谈，试图找到一些办法来恢复世界经济增长，并使国际货币体系有序。1971年固定汇率的布雷顿森林体系崩溃之后，国际货币体系陷入混乱状态。
　　

　　
　　1976年，当时的美国总统杰拉尔德·福特召集各国领导人举行首脑会议的时候，七国集团成立了。加拿大被邀请加入，以对原集团中欧洲国家过多的情况进行平衡。福特政府经济顾问委员会主席（名为艾伦·格林斯潘）是这一倡议的主要推动者；他担心，如果西方国家都过于激进的刺激经济，那么它们将过快的从衰退中恢复，从而触发新一轮通货膨胀。福特政府国家安全小组成员亨利·基辛格和布伦特·斯考克罗夫特也把该组织视为北约之外的一种把西方国家团结起来的方式，共同抵挡来自中东的石油压力，并加强它们针对苏联的联合。这种首脑会议还有一些优点，如包括了非北约成员国的日本，以及关注经济问题，北约很少讨论此类问题。
　　
　　

　　在那次特别会议之后，七国集团首脑会议（1998年俄罗斯加入扩展成为八国集团）已经成为国际外交日程中最重要的事件。该集团的财政部长和央行行长另外召开自己的会议，外交部长也是这样。首脑会议关注包括艾滋病在内的各种问题，内容十分广泛，为世界最贫穷国家提供帮助，并打击恐怖主义。
　　
　　
　　原文：
　　
　　
　　The G7 Speaks, But Who Listens? (1)
　　
　　
　　Who should guide the international economy in this time of uncertain growth prospects, rising inflation and record high oil prices? Are existing international institutions up to the job? Or is it time to reform the global economic architecture and give greater voice to the emerging economies that will play an increasingly important role in the world economy in the years ahead? Our well-known view is that existing institutions, notably the G7, are outdated and should be overhauled. Further evidence of this came in the form of theG7Finance Ministers statement in May, in which they called on oil-producing countries to expand production to restrain the upward rise in crude oil prices. To us the most interesting aspect is that this is the fourth consecutive statement focusing on an issue over which the G7 has little to no direct control. The three previous G7 meetings were notable for the implied calls on non-G7 Asian nations to adopt more flexible currency regimes.
　　
　　
　　The G7 is right to point to policy action that will make for amore sustainable world economy. However, it is unlikely that the G7 can have any direct influence on these issues. Nor was it clear what incentives the G7 countries were ready to offer in order to persuade the target countries to adopt globally beneficial policies. All these communiqués highlight the diminished relevance of the G7 in the modern world.
　　
　　
　　The time has come for institutional reform of organizations that preside over the world economy. We specifically propose an extension of the G8 Heads of State to include China, an elevated role for the G20 and creation of an F8 (Financial Eight) to replace the G7 finance and central bankers meetings.
　　
　　
　　The G8 Summit: Time For a Change
　　
　　
　　As the Group of Eight leaders approach their annual summit next week in Georgia, they face a far different world from the one their predecessors confronted when they initiated these conclaves in 1975. Then the international economy was dominated by the US, Japan and a handful of European nations that together accounted for the vast portion of world GDP, finance and commerce. These countries called the shots on trade negotiations, currency realignments and most other international economic matters--except for oil. It was oil that catalysed the summit process, in 1975, when six western leaders met to forge a strategy to overcome the recession caused by the Arab embargo following the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. Ironically, oil will again be a major topic because the assembled countries have done too little to reduce their dependence in the ensuing decades. In the mid-1970s, China barely participated in world trade; its dramatic market reforms had not even begun. India’s technology boom was two decades away. The European Union had only nine members. The USSR still existed as a communist state that sought to undermine the western market economic system. Iraq was an American ally. Mutual assured destruction was the primary nuclear issue, not proliferation.
　　
　　
　　This initial summit differed from anything that had preceded it. It was not established by treaty or by a formal diplomatic conference, as were the IMF or World Bank. Instead, it was planned as a one-time event--an informal get-together--and was the idea of German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and French President Valerie Giscard d’Estaing (both former finance ministers). Giscard invited Schmidt and their American, Japanese, British and Italian counterparts to seek ways to restore world economic growth and bring order to an international monetary system thrown into turmoil after the 1971 collapse of the Bretton Woods System of fixed exchange rates.
　　
　　
　　TheG7was born when then US President Gerald Ford convened a second summit in 1976. Canada was invited to balance the heavy weighting of European countries in the original group. The Chairman of Ford’s Council of Economic Advisors (a man named Alan Greenspan) was the prime mover behind the initiative; he feared that if Western nations collectively applied economic stimulus too aggressively, they would emerge from the recession so rapidly as to trigger a new round of inflation. Ford’s national security team of Henry Kissinger and Brent Scowcroft also saw this as another means, beyond NATO, of bonding the Western allies together to resist oil pressure from the Middle East and to strengthen their unity against the Soviet Union. The summit had the advantages of including non-NATO Japan and of focusing on economics, a subject NATO rarely broached.
　　
　　
　　Since that ad hoc beginning, these G7 summits (expanded to the G8 with the addition of Russia in 1998) have become a mainstay of the international diplomatic calendar. Finance ministers and central bank governors convene their own meetings, as do foreign ministers. Summits have addressed a widening range of issues, including AIDS, help for the poorest nations and