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决战德州：奥巴马能再次击败希拉莉吗？（组图）
今晚，奥巴马和希拉莉将进行最后一次电视辩论，为三月四日的得克萨斯州初选做最后的冲刺。
本周二，奥巴马轻松地拿下威斯康星州，给希拉莉以致命的一击。威斯康星州的选民的构成几乎是专门给希拉莉量身定做的：很多白人和上年纪的妇女。这些人是希拉莉的票源。奥巴马在威斯康星州战胜希拉莉意味着希拉莉的票源开始被奥巴马所攻破。这对希拉莉来说非常不利。
以前支持希拉莉分两类人，一是希拉莉的铁杆拥护者，二是认为希拉莉是当然的提名人。希拉莉的铁杆拥护者占的比例不大，主要是职业妇女和老年妇女。认为希拉莉是当然提名人的，现在军心动摇，转向支持奥巴马。这些人以前有很多是黑人和白人妇女及拉美人。现在黑人是一面倒向奥巴马，白人妇女和拉美人成了奥巴马和希拉莉所争夺的对象。
在德州，有很多拉美裔选民。传统上他们是支持希拉莉的，但在奥巴马势不可挡的竞选声浪和连获十州胜利的凯歌声中，他们会捍卫希拉莉到什么程度很难说。希拉莉全力以赴要保住这些人，奥巴马不遗余力地要动员他们站到自己一边。
希拉莉前一阵把墨西哥裔的竞选经理换成黑人妇女，曾引起很多拉美裔民主党超级代表的不满，号召拉美裔不要投希拉莉，会有多大的影响力，现在还很难说。但如果德州的拉美裔选民向其他一些州一样不投或投奥巴马一票的话，希拉莉将再次败给奥巴马，将很快退出竞选。
美国媒体现在几乎是一面倒向奥巴马，不断发表对奥巴马有利的消息和对希拉莉不利的信息。在奥巴马夫人说这次是她头一次为美国感到自豪的话以后，共和党竞选人麦肯给予严厉的批评。而媒体只是轻描淡写地报到一下，而不是象对共和党那样穷追不舍。
在新闻报道方面，奥巴马的演讲得到了全面的转播，而希拉莉的演讲则不断被打断。有这些免费的广告，无论是希拉莉还是麦肯，都只能望尘莫及。
是什么原因让希拉莉节节败退？为什么象奥巴马这样喊口号的竞选会连连胜利？
仔细分析一下，我认为原因有以下几点：
1。据民意测验，美国有47%的人恨或不喜欢希拉莉，而还没有人说他恨奥巴马。奥巴马抓住这些人的心态，提出了除旧迎新的竞选理念，深得人心。
2。奥巴马和希拉莉在很多问题上观点是一致的，只是执行的技术上有分歧。就这点，就可以动摇支持希拉莉选民的军心。
3。希拉莉不断强调自己有经验。把自己的竞选基调定在经验上，实在太离谱。她说的经验跟克林顿有关，而美国有很多人不喜欢克林顿，这就造成了理念的困扰。奥巴马说自己是没经验，但很自豪自己没有希拉莉那样的经验，让希拉莉无话可说。
4。奥巴马提出的是美国政改的方向问题，不要自上而下，而要自下而上。希拉莉说的经验和计划，是一个技术问题。总统是一个国家的领袖，如果选民支持他的方向，技术上的问题都是小事。
综上分析，如果不出什么状况，奥巴马有可能再此战胜希拉莉。如果失去了德州，她继续竞选下去所能依靠的是争辩让佛罗里达州和密歇根州的选票重新算数，而奥巴马则会要求超级代表们要服从民意，放弃希拉莉。
跟共和党简单而有效的选举体系相比，民主党的代表选举制度是错综复杂而十分混乱还不合理。有人说这点就可以看出让民主党上台会给美国带来一片混乱，不见得没有一些道理。
ignorant
McCain = Bush
Pathetic.
Hillary is getting not less media exposure, but as the world can see, she has nothing but scandals to show.
The media don't invent those crap unless she made them herself.
The only attack on Obama is his inexperience and his skin color. Nothing more. The inexperience has been strongly proven to be even an advantage for the new generation of politic and leadership, and the racial discrimination is just lame and upsetting.
Hillary's campaign is on $7.5 million of debt which doesn't even include the $5 million out of her own pocket. How can you expect to trust in her administration of this country while she can't even make her little campaign work in a healthy manner, despite all the misconducts, scandals and lies?
Wake up, Chinese fellows. The change in skin color in the White House will be a milestone in perfecting the true America. The skin color can't justify their cause, but it's rather a symbol of a greater level of humanity and civilization.
Hillary Clinton, Obama's bitter rival for the Democrats' presidential nomination, has long complained that the young Illinois senator is getting a free ride from journalists in thrall to his promise of change.
"Obama is the new story this year and reporters love novel plotlines," said Darrell West, a political scientist and media expert at Brown University in Rhode Island.
"But as it gets closer to the nomination, there is going to be more scrutiny of him. Reporters are going to examine his statements, his votes and his background," he told AFP.
Some Obama supporters fret already that his campaign has the trappings of a messianic cult, as thousands upon thousands pack auditoriums to bask in his uplifting oratory.
"Obamaphilia has gotten creepy," Los Angeles Times columnist Joel Stein wrote. "The best we Obamaphiles can do is to refrain from embarrassing ourselves."
But even seasoned Republican commentators have found something refreshing in the 46-year-old Obama's drive to become the first African-American president and turn a page on two decades of political rancor.
MSNBC presenter Joe Scarborough, a former Republican representative, has commented admiringly on Obama's ability to rally independents and even Republicans to his cause. "I've never seen anything like this before," he said.
For a fickle media pack always desperate for the next big thing, the Obama phenomenon has shone beside the tarnished luster of Clinton and her former president husband Bill.
That frustrates Clinton aides such as communications chief Howard Wolfson, who said his boss had been "vetted" thoroughly.
"There is a role that the press plays in vetting candidates and that role is presumably ongoing," he said, arguing that recent disclosures about Obama were better late than never.
The candidate himself denies that he has received an easy ride, noting that for much of last year the coverage was not so excitable when he was focused on nuts-and-bolts stump issues.
"We got good press (at first) because we raised more money than people had expected," Obama said late last month. "And then there was a big stretch of about six months when we couldn't do anything right.
"We were not complaining when other candidates were touted as inevitable and their campaigns were flawless and we were the gang that couldn't shoot straight. So I just think we have to keep it in perspective."
Obama has kept the press at arm's length, giving fewer on-the-record briefings than Clinton, the once "inevitable" nominee who has become more accessible as her campaign has faltered.
Still, Obama brings to mind the original "Teflon president," Ronald Reagan, to whom scandal failed to stick and whose talent for communication lives on in the Illinois senator.
The Clinton campaign has struggled to whip up media interest in Obama's financial links to a Chicago businessman, Antoin Rezko, who is due to go on trial for fraud next month.
The New York senator has gained traction more recently for her accusation that Obama has plagiarized other politicians' speeches, although that piece of spin did nothing to halt Obama's momentum in Wisconsin Tuesday.
Television networks cut away from Clinton mid-speech on the night of the Wisconsin primary as Obama stole her thunder at a victory rally in Texas, a small but telling sign of the shift in media attention from last year.
But Obama hasn't been immune to attack.
Fox News presenters last year relayed false claims by Insight, an online journal published by Sun Myung Moon's Unification Church, that he attended a radical Islamic school as a child in Indonesia.
Insight had said the Clinton campaign was preparing to assert that Obama had covered up this period of his life, but the New York Times said the report was "quickly discredited" and Fox backtracked.
However, Obama is now under broader fire as his chances of winning the Democratic nomination have surged with victories in 11 contests running.
In an article headlined "The Obama Delusion," Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson said the senator "seems to have hypnotized much of the media and the public with his eloquence and the symbolism of his life story."
"The result is a mass delusion that Obama is forthrightly engaging the nation's major problems when, so far, he isn't."
it seems American people agree that they need changes.
he does look like a red gard, doesn't he? : )
和我的感觉一样的，奥巴马上台，看来美国也要来一场中国式的文化大革命！
任何的反潮流和激进 都将给社会带来动荡和灾难。人类要学会从历史中吸取教训。
他看来象个红卫兵头头!!!
agree! 他说的都是讨好选民的。