越王剑 - 博客

(2018-11-28 09:56:14)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/seemingly-dovish-powell-says-interest-rates-are-just-below-level-where-they-wont-stimulate-economy-2018-11-28? FirstsignthatFEDfoldedon3-4hikesnextyear.Probablyoneortwo,theywillbedone. Thisisgooddevelopmentforstocks. 股市短期最困难的时刻可能已经过去了。 [阅读全文]

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五年弹指一挥间

(2018-11-22 09:53:52)

5年时光就这么飞快的流逝了。感觉在5年间发生了很多，有好像什么也没发生。 5年前建立的这个股票盘子获得了比较大的成功，90%是因为赶上了这历史上最长的牛市。10%在于选股还比较不错。但是最大的成功因素还是长线的持有和比较低的turnoverratio（如果想看换股情况，请查看博客记录）.另一个重要因素是对风险的控制（当个股出现过热情况时经常使用期权保护措施和部[阅读全文]

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从VIX上看市场仍然比较危险

(2018-11-20 09:49:48)

MACD刚刚要变正，图形也趋势更大的恐慌的来临。仍然需要谨慎。不宜大规模抄底。从最近彭斯的方言看，中美达成协议的希望正在变小。这一点从BA的下跌中可以看出。[阅读全文]

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中期选举结果即将揭晓

(2018-11-06 05:19:16)

目前看最大可能是民主党赢众院。股市应是下行趋势不变。但是应该不会暴跌。如民主党赢两院，那么暴跌条件就成熟。由于领头股季报均不佳，目前向上动能不足。即使涨也费劲。所以仍然需要持有不少现金。[阅读全文]

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Time to go shopping

(2018-10-26 10:13:31)

Continuewithpositivediverging,VIXreached28todayandPut/Callratioalsoreachedextreme. AAIIbearsisabove41%. Ithinkmarkethasreachedtradablebottomtoday. Smallcaphaslotsofvaluenowandsofardownfrom50MA.Itshouldrebound. Thisiswherewecanputcashtowork. [阅读全文]

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Positive Diverging

(2018-10-25 08:48:12)

Afterreallyabigselloffyesterday,marketbouncesofflowandinrallymodetoday.Butlotsofdamangeshavehappenedtoindividualstocks.However,therearesomepositivedivergingbuilding.Mybestguessisthatmarketisreachingneartermbottom.Nov/Dec(beforenextFedratehike),marketshallgetbetter.Youmightwanttoplaythelongsidehere.IamputtingsomecashintoETFsnowandplantoclose2015(started2013)individualstocksportfolioincomingweeks(ju...[阅读全文]

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Cut back more positions

(2018-10-18 17:39:18)

ExitBIIB,DuPont,BAC,NVDA.Cutbackfewmorepositions.[阅读全文]

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Exit RTN and MMM

(2018-10-12 09:12:15)

Trimmingmoreindustrialfornow.[阅读全文]

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Market negative diverging on weekly chart

(2018-10-11 08:50:28)

Wheneverthisisanegativedivergingonchart,usuallypricewillmoveagainstcurrenttrendsoon.Aswesawthatmarketissoldoffheavilyinlastfewdays.Therearesomegoodnewsandbadnews.Thegoodnewsisthatmarketiscurrentlyatoversoldconditionalthoughcompletewashouthasn'thappenedyet(maybeinafewdays).UsuallywhenTAindicatorsgetintothisterriotory,itisusuallyclosetoneartermbottom.Thebadnewsisthat,thisnegativediverginglikelyt...[阅读全文]

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2015 Portfolio 2018 Q3 summary

(2018-10-08 12:54:43)

Thisportfoliostartedinendof2013,inafewmonths,itwillreach5yrmark.Ihavesomesuccessincertainstocks,andIhavesomefailureinsomestocks.Butgivingthatthisisthelongestbullmarketinhistory,theportfoliodidquickwell.ItapprovesthatlongterminvestingisthebestoptionforaverageJoes. 2018isadifficultyear.Marketisupanddownalot.Thereareafewvalotilityspike.Currentlyinterestisgoingup,oilisgoingup.Tradewarisintensify.FE...[阅读全文]

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