博文
This market hasn’t given up the ghost.
(2009-02-18 12:09:48)
Thismarkethasn’tgivenuptheghost.Afterthebigselloffyesterday,themarketbouncedaroundtheflatlinetoday,failingtocapitalizeontheobama’smortgageplanandFedmeetingminutes.Thisactionportendsabiggerselloffjustaheadofus.WiththeDOWNovclosinglowpenetrated,thisseniorindexbrokealltheconceivabletechnicalsupportlevel,leavingonlytheNov21intradaylowintact.TheghostIamtalkingaboutisthebig-captech.Theyarestillactingu...[阅读全文]
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OIL: if you can\'t join them, beat \'em
(2009-02-17 07:49:35)
Therecentthemeofthemarkethasbeenrisk-averse:buyingsafe-havengoldandtreasuryandsellinghigh-betaassetstock.Thistrendisespeciallypronouncedwithtoday'suglystockmarketaction.
SowhereisOILstandinginallthemess?TurnedoutOILispositivelycorrelatedtostock.(seemypreviouspost:http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200901&postID=55752).Andbothfelloutfromthebedatthesametime:awayfromtherecentconsoli...[阅读全文]
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Gold: if you can\'t beat them, join \'em
(2009-02-17 07:40:06)
Goldisbreakingouttotheupsidefromthelastresistence/consolidationof930.Itisconsistentwiththerecentrisk-reversetrade:buygold,treasuryandshunequity,oil.
Thislegshouldcarrygoldbacktotheoldhighof$1000.Butgoldshouldeventuallyjoinequitytothedownside,too.[阅读全文]
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十年股海浮沉，一点投资心得 (ZT)
(2009-02-16 19:36:22)
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance_best&MsgID=6150[阅读全文]
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How to spot this market bottom?
(2009-02-16 18:41:47)
2009-02-15Realquick.HowmanydaysDOWclosebelow8000?Dowclosedunder8000for4daysinarow,thelongeststreaksincethelast2002bearmarketlow.At7850oflastFridayclose,itislowestlevelsincelastNov20low.Thisdoesn’tbodewellforthevenerableindex.ItcoulddrawsomecascadingsellingintheindexandeventuallybelowlastNov20marketlow.The$64,000questionishowtospottheupcomingmarketbottom?WhileDOWisonthevergeofbreakingitsbearmarket...[阅读全文]
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Hail Mary pass & market return
(2009-02-07 20:17:26)
Imagethegameclockdowntothelast5secondsinthesuperbowlandyourhometownteamaredownbysixandyourfavoritequaterbackwilltakeasnapattheyourown30yardline.Whatishegoingtodo?HailMarypass!Guesswhat?Itiscaughtintheendzoneandthisgoesdownthehistorybookasoneofthewildestfinishinthesuperbowl.
Sure,thisisexcitingstuff.Butinvestmentisnotaboutexcitementanditisaboutslowandsteadymakingmoney.Ifyougoforbrokeeverytrade,...[阅读全文]
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Has the multi-week/month bear market rally finally arrived?
(2009-02-06 11:04:52)
Itlookslikethisisthebearmarketrallyeveryonehasbeenwaitingfor.Ideally,thisshouldhappenaftertheretestofNovlow.Butitisnotmarket'sintentiontoaccomodatemostpeople,ratheritsintentionistofrustratemostpeople.
Markethumbleallthebears.Iamasbearishaseveronthisrally.Butthisisnotimetofightthetrend.Weneedtorespectwhatthemarketistellingus.
IamgoingoutonalimbtocallthisrallytoS&P950.Enjoythissuckerrall...[阅读全文]
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自我对照，你现在处于哪亇阶段 (zt)
(2009-02-05 07:33:02)
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=1351252
38-STEPSTOBECOMINGA
SUCCESSFULTRADER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
StepstoSuccessfulCommoditiesFuturesTrading
aspublishedinCommodityFuturesTradingClubNews
andinTradersOrganization'sRealSuccessDaytradingCourse
1.Weaccumulatetradinginformation-buyingboo...[阅读全文]
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\'chicken blood\' news flow
(2009-02-02 10:46:21)
Onthenewsflows,thereareplentyofpositivebiasednews:badbankplancouldgainsomemomentumagainandthesenatevoteoftheobama'sstimulus.Buttheproblemisallthesenewsarenotreallynew(sameold,sameold...).Thinkaboutit,sincethelehmandebacle,howmanyratecut,baildoutorstimulusnews,includingchina's,didwegetsofar?Andyetseehowthemarketreactoverthetimes.Priceisalwaystheleader.Ifnewswereanygood,wewouldn'thavemiredinthesedow...[阅读全文]
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Are you ready for more selling?
(2009-02-02 08:23:12)
2009-02-02Sincemylastpost[AAPLup10%AH,canthemarketrallyfromhere?],MarketdidrallytotheupsideandturnedrightbackdownatDow8000.Almosttwomoreweekslater,marketgobacktoroughlywhereitstarted.So,whatgives?OnethingmarketaccomplishedistosqueezeoutalltheshortsthatpiledonaroundDow8000lasttime,nowthatwearebackhereagain.Shortsturnskittishandtimeisripeformarketbuildsomemomentumtothedownside.Remember,marketalwayst...[阅读全文]
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