博文
(2009-11-11 12:18:46)
Atrader'spersonalityhasafinalsayonwhetheryou'llbesuccessfulornot.ThereisanoldChinesesayingthatittakes10yearstogrowatreeand100yearstochangeaperson.Itisthemostdifficultlastmileinyourtradingjouneytoalignyourpersonalitytoasuccessfultrader'sone.Youcanlearnallthetradingskillsfromotherperopleandseminars,butthelastmileyouareonyourown.
Asuccessfultrader'spersonalityshouldconsistof
1)Haveatradingpla...[阅读全文]
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Players:Don’tquitonGMjustyet!WhatIamsayingisdon’tquitonthestock,atleastnotjustyet.Asforthecompany,whocare?Idon’townanyGMcar.Idon’thaveafondand/orun-fondfeelingaboutit.Thepeoplehavemostatstakearethestakeholders,youknow,theUAW,bondholders,Washingtonleader’spoliticalreputation(nottheirownmoney),andabunchof,shallwecall,insane,equityholders.Therearetwomorethingsthatstilllefttobeplayedoutforthestoc...[阅读全文]
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(2009-05-26 14:25:20)
GM’sHugegyrationofprice
GM’spriceswingaswildlyasyoucangetforaso-calledblue-chipcompany(60%+fromlowtohigh).Curiously,bythetimeitclosetheday,itbackedtowhereitstarted.Thisisneitheranon-confirmationnorconfirmationactiontolasttradingday'soutsidereversalpattern.Weshouldjusttakethefacevalueofwhatmarkettellus:volatility,makeithugevolatility,willstillrulethenextfewtradingdaysuntilwegetthefinalverdict...[阅读全文]
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(2009-05-22 16:31:50)
Thetechnicaldefinitionofoutsidereversalisstockopenhigherandgohigherthanyesterday'shighandintraday'slowislowerthanyesterday'slowandclosedneartoday'slow.Whatthatmeansisthebullofthestockexhaustitselfandgivethestocklastpushbeforethebeartakecontrol.Outsidereversaldaydon'thappenoften.Butwhenitdoes,itusuallymeananemotionaltoporbottomisputin.Alsoifthevolumeishigh,thatmeansthesignalisstrong.GM'stoday'spric...[阅读全文]
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(2009-04-15 14:05:47)
Whataspectcularrisefollowedaspectaculrfalls.Justanotherchapterhavebeenwritteninthehistorybook.Marketandlifestillmoveon...
Ihavebeenbusytotrytokeepupwiththebull,initiallywithdisbliefinthevelocityofrise,butabandonmyshorttojointhelong,onlytosellouttooquickandlefttoomuchonthetable.Talkaboutatrickybull.
With5thbigupweekunderthebelt,IamagainbettingthemarketwilltakeabreatherhereintheOEweek.Interm...[阅读全文]
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[MyCommentsinRED]
NEWYORK(MarketWatch)--IrememberwhyIwantedtobeatrader.Ifiguredtheeasiestwaytomakemoneywastostandnearthecashregister."[Fight?]No,notyet.NotuntilmeandHarveygettherulesstraightenedout."—--PaulNewmanas"ButchCassidy."Ofcourse,asIdiscoveredthroughoutmycareer,there'sareasonconsistentproducersgetpaidthebigbucks.Flashybetsandbigswingssometimesconnectbutintheend,adisciplinedandconsiste...[阅读全文]
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(2009-03-10 06:51:26)
3/9/09,AfterCloseAnotherday,anothersellinginstockwithnobottominsight.Whatisnew?Well,ifyoulookcloser,thefinancialstopgoingdown(XLFupontheday).Andthebigtech,thelastholdoutinthiswholedownlegisleadingthechargetothedownside.Justlikethebear’srollingthunderroarthroughmarketsky.Allthesectorsofmarketgotrainedon.Ifallsmallguysareproclaiming,“Skingisfalling.”.Thebottomshouldnotbefaroff.Remaincautiouslyopt...[阅读全文]
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(2009-03-02 11:42:15)
Bottomisathand?Severalthingsthatmakethisfeellikeabottom:1)extremeoversoldconditionintheshortterm2)extremepessimismsamonginvestor.MARKHULBERTofcbsreportedlongtermbuy-and-holderfinallythrowinthetowels.(http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Status-market-timing-popularity-indicator/story.aspx?guid={9514E9B5-9949-4D0C-AFA5-AD8A7B40679B})3)Inthetechnicalfront:DOWmakeabearmarketlowunder7000,S&Pmakea...[阅读全文]
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Fromtherecentmarketbehavior,wearemuchclosertothebottomthaneverbeforesincethebearmarketstartedinOct2007.AlthoughDOWisbelowlastNovlow,butthesellingintensityandstrengthispalecomparedtothelastNovlow(seevixcharts).Wealsohavesomemajornon-confirmationinthemajorindexes,withSPXholdingabovelastNovintradaylowandCOMPwayabovetheNovlow.Thelongerthisnon-confirmationhold,thebiggerthechanceofamarketrally.Lookclose...[阅读全文]
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Mayday,Mayday.Today’sactioninfinancialstocksbringupagrimimage:awoundisopenonthebankinggiantsinthewildandagroupofhungrybears(notwolf!)areattacking,bitingoffanyfleshleftopen.Theyaredefendless.Thisdoessmelllikeacapitulation…watchoutforabriefreprieveinlasthourofOEday.Bullwon’tgiveupwithoutafight.[阅读全文]
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