牛经沧海投资感悟生活点滴
吾言吾所思，君闻君所愿。【声明】仅供交流之用，不作投资建议。
博文
(2008-09-20 06:58:49)
牛经沧海
9/20/2008
华尔街五大投行，个个百年老店，久经危机洗礼，却被一手自创的金融衍生产品泡沫击倒，真是造化弄人。
巧的是，本人在最先倒下的全美第五大投资银行贝尔斯登任职，而太太就在全美第四大投资银行雷曼兄弟。前者拥有4000亿美元的资产，雇用18000员工，后者则拥有6000亿美元的资产，雇用28000员工。投行的员工可不是商行的出纳员。
金融衍生产品[阅读全文]
(2008-09-17 12:03:28)
ItsatisfiesmostofbottomdetectioncriteriaincludingtheVIXandQQVmetrics(pleasecheckmyoldpostingsin熊火烧不尽春风吹又生fordetailsifyouarecurious).
Mostimportantly,mypropitiatoryrulenumber7wasmet:
7.Nofundleftwhenarealbottomshowsup.
[阅读全文]
(2008-08-27 11:21:56)
Bothforshorttermflipandmid-termswingtrade.
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(2008-08-01 11:06:27)
MSwrotedownandcutbackaggressivelylastyear.Thosepreventivemeasurespayoffnow.ThiscontraststoLEH,whichjuststartedbigwrite-downinitslastQtrlyreport.
MSwillsolidifyitsleaderposition(stillbehindGSthough)inthisroundoffinancialdebacles.
BestpositionedfinancialfirmsarestillWFC(bank),GS(Brokerage),JPM(financailsupermarket),BLK(assetmgmt),SCHW(discountretail).Watchtheleaderscloselytoidentifytrend.Once...[阅读全文]
BestpositionedfinancialfirmsarestillWFC(bank),GS(Brokerage),JPM(financailsupermarket),BLK(assetmgmt),SCHW(discountretail).Watchtheleaderscloselytoidentifytrend.Once...[阅读全文]
(2008-07-31 14:34:46)
PayattentiontothestrengthofGSastheleaderofbrokerages,WFCastheleaderofbanksandJPMastheleaderoffinancialsuperpower.Theystillhaveroomtogoup.XLFmeetswithsomeresistanceatits50daySMA.Oncebreakingup,itwillendthisroundofbounceat24(100daySMA)to26(lowerboundofitsupperrangeceiling).
BTW,Iposted熊火烧不尽春风吹又生onedaythemarketbottom(http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200807&postID=15...[阅读全文]
(2008-07-25 08:08:49)
MichaelShedlocksummarizedthatthereare10phasesinabearmarket.Letusreviewwhereitstartedandwherearewenow.
1.Ahugebuy-the-dipmentalitysetsinduringtheinitialdecline.Mostpartygoerscannotfathomthatpartyhasended.
2.Moderateconcernsetsinwhenbuythedipstopsworking.
3.Initialpanic.(FebruarytoMarch2007)
4.Numerousbottomcallsaremade,allwrong.
5.Searchfortheguilty.
6.Punishmentoftheinnocen...[阅读全文]
1.Ahugebuy-the-dipmentalitysetsinduringtheinitialdecline.Mostpartygoerscannotfathomthatpartyhasended.
2.Moderateconcernsetsinwhenbuythedipstopsworking.
3.Initialpanic.(FebruarytoMarch2007)
4.Numerousbottomcallsaremade,allwrong.
5.Searchfortheguilty.
6.Punishmentoftheinnocen...[阅读全文]
(2008-07-20 12:26:52)
ThePainsandGainsinSpeculations
牛经沧海
IboughtSQNMat3.25on10/22/2003(before1for3reversesplit).Itwentuptoover$4onthenexttwomonths.BeforeIwasabletocelebratethemagicofjunkstockpicking,itdroppedtotheabyss$1duringthesummerdoldrumsof2004.Afteranotheryearofsuffering,itappearedtohavenohopeofrecovery.Ifinallydumpeditattheendof2005forataxsaleandtorealizedatotallossalmost.
...[阅读全文]
(2008-07-15 12:02:20)
1。牛极生熊，熊极牛起。
2。VIX与QQV达低点两倍以上易生牛。
3。熊如暴君，葬熊必得有影响之公司陪葬。
4。市场中较后转熊的板块或最先转牛，颇似STACK。
5。逐利资本必弃老牛而趋新牛。
6。股市中人不可太执著，更不可轻言放弃。持之以恒才有机会。
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(2008-07-12 14:47:49)
牛经沧海
7/12/2008
纵观当今之势，房市，金融，股市皆熊，仅商品一牛耳。三熊一牛，熊军彼此呼应，其势咄咄逼人；牛军形影相吊，其时屈指可数。然世事皆有定数，盛极而衰，既无恒牛，亦无常熊。牛熊更迭，故而为市场。三熊之中，房熊为源，金融衍生产品最堪为忧，股熊只是前二熊的并发症。2000年科网泡沫破裂，加上911之创，美政府急不择计，养一个泡沫取代另[阅读全文]
7/12/2008
纵观当今之势，房市，金融，股市皆熊，仅商品一牛耳。三熊一牛，熊军彼此呼应，其势咄咄逼人；牛军形影相吊，其时屈指可数。然世事皆有定数，盛极而衰，既无恒牛，亦无常熊。牛熊更迭，故而为市场。三熊之中，房熊为源，金融衍生产品最堪为忧，股熊只是前二熊的并发症。2000年科网泡沫破裂，加上911之创，美政府急不择计，养一个泡沫取代另[阅读全文]
(2008-05-09 07:42:17)
Investmentinthestockmarketisalwaysmyfavorite.Sincegotdrowninthe2000techbubble,Iexpandedtoacoupleofalternativesinrecentyears:Investinrestaurants.Ihappentoknowacoupleofsmartandambitiousrestaurateurs.Oneofthemacceptedmyfundsasapassiveinvestor.Istartedwitha10%stakeinhisfirstrestaurantin2005.Ithasareturnof30%annualreturnsofar.Iaddedto20%ofstakeinhissecondrestaurant,whichwillcost3milliontocompletethis...[阅读全文]
