博文
What\'s given can be taken away
(2008-03-19 21:40:23)
Aremarketparticipantsmostlyrationalandlogic?probablyyes,butmostofthemaresonarrowlyfocusedonneartermeventthatsometimesevensomethingobviouscanbeeasilymissed.
IthastotakeafullnightforthewholemarkettorealizethattheDollarover-corrected,pricinginawholepointcutinsteadof3quarter,thus,thegreenbackwentupagainstothercurrencies,suddenlyalldollardenominatedassetssuddenlybecomecheaper,thusthecollapseoftheco...[阅读全文]
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Chinese Proverbs
(2008-03-18 19:38:49)
"Mayyouliveinaninterestingtime",thatisthequoteIheardalotlatelyfromnewsmediaandisattributedfromchina.Beingraisedandeducatedinchina,Icannotthinkofaphraseusedindailylifeclosetothesemanticsofthesaying,eventhoughIwasnotsurprisedatallknowingWesternersalsomakeupstaffasfromchina/Confusiantomakeitmoreauthoritative.Afterwatchingthemarketandparticipatedlatepartoftherallytoday,anotherchineseproverbcametomymin...[阅读全文]
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Here comes helicopter
(2008-03-17 19:44:25)
Thespectreoffearfinanllybegintohuantthemarket,andsomesmartmoneydefinitelytooktheadvantagetosnatchsomedepressedsharessoldbythepanicinvestors.Exceptenergy,allsectorsareclosedmuchhigherthanwhentheyopened,especiallyfinancials.Meanwhile,the$VIXisreachedthehighsofJanuary,So,somecontranianbuyingshouldbeinstore.
However,thisisspecialtimesneedspecialattention.Bynomeans,themarketisoutofwood,theoveralltr...[阅读全文]
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quite impressive
(2008-03-13 19:52:37)
Thisisquiteimpressive,nolessthantwoday'sagowhentheDJIAwasup400points.Whatstandingoutisthatalotofstocksrecoveredfromseeminglybrokendownfromtheirsupport,alongwithallmajorindexes.Lookslikethebullwillnotgiveupwithoutafight,andwhatafighttheywagedtoday.
Otherthanthelastminutes'hesitation,againindicatingaweakconviction,thismarketlookslikefounditslife..
Thismakestomorrow'sCPInumberevenmoreimportan...[阅读全文]
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Conviction to the market, priceless..
(2008-03-12 20:32:49)
Sometimes,smallmovesofthemarkettellbigstories.Eventhoughthemarketwasdownonlyfractiontoday,itspeaksvolumnabouttraders'confidence,orlackofit,towardthemarket.Youcanblamerisingoilprice,ortrytoexplainitawayasnaturalpullbackafteryesterday'shugemove,butthefactthatthetradersarereluntanttoholdthestockovernightsimplyindicatesthereisnoconvictionsonbuyers'side.
Therearealotoftalksaboutthebottomofthemarket...[阅读全文]
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when in danger, dialing FED
(2008-03-11 21:08:37)

IfthereisonethingstandingoutforthisFED,itisitswillingnesstoacommodatetheWallStreetanditspenchantforsurprise.RememberthefirstactionoftheFEDunderBernanke,itcutdiscountrateonanoptionexpirationday.Andtoday,theFEDisonitagain,injected200BillionintothetroubledmortgagebusinessjustaweekbeforeFEDmeeting.Butontheotherhand,eachofFED'sactionthusfarseemsonlyprovideatemporaryrelieveandinflictthepainforthe"short"...[阅读全文]
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Marred by Bear
(2008-03-10 20:02:50)
OK,thingsgotseriouswhenthesupportisbroken,andthisiswhatwegot,moredownwardmovewithnobottominsight.Withallthat,themarketisstillnotoversold,talkingaboutstubbornmarket.VIXisstillunder30,so,youcouldsaythesellingisorderly:)
Alltheleadersaretakenout:steel,agriculture..thatisthesignoflossoftheconfidence.andwhenthemarketlostconfidence,thebuyingwilldefinitelyrecede.
So,Isitthetimethatmarketwillrebou...[阅读全文]
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Broken Support
(2008-03-09 17:14:52)
Thechartisuglyunlessyouarein"short"position.Allmajorindexesarebelowtheirsupport.IfyouarepurelyrelyonTAsystem,itistimetoshortinsteadofbuy.Andifyoureadfinancialnewsfrommajorfinancialsites,therecessionisthemostfrequentlyusedwordduringtheweekend.Nothingmakepeoplefeelgood.
Fundamentally,itdoesnotsupportahigherpriceeither.Aftergoingdownsomuchfromitshigh,theP/EforSP500actuallyisgettinghigher..Thisisb...[阅读全文]
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sink or swim
(2008-03-06 20:28:15)
Itwassuchatoughtap,evenifyouwerelucktoberightforamoment,theprofitquicklyturnedintoloss.
Overall,itwasugly,thereisnootherwaytoputit.allmajorindexesareatthesupportlevel,anymoredownwardmovefromhereisconsideredbreachofthesupport,technically,thereisnothingmoreseriousthanthis.Theonlyconsolationisthevolumnwasrelativelylow,so,maybethebiggunssimplyholdtheirfiresbeforethejobreporttomorrow.
The$VIXju...[阅读全文]
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Price is right ?
(2008-03-05 18:29:40)
Therearemanywaystomeasurethevalueofthestocks,someuseP/E,someusecashflow,someuseROIetc..whenthereareabsolutelynothingtobemeasured(forexample,adotcomonpaper),peoplewilllettheirimaginationrunwildandcomeupwithsomethingtotallyoutofthisworld,likeprice/click:)..However,thereisanotherwaytodecidewhetherthestockischeaporexpansive,itisnotdecidedbythestockitself,butrather,bythedemandandsupply,thatis"technical...[阅读全文]
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