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Slipery market
(2008-05-07 20:00:03)
Acutefemalecolleaguewaslateatworkduringasnowstorm.“Man,theroadwassoslipperythatIwalkedforwardonestepandslippedbackwardtwosteps”Everyonefeltsympathyfortheyounglady,eventhebosscameovertoaskwhethersheisok“Then,howdoyougettotheoffice?”AsmartIndianPh.D.cannothelptopointoutthelogicflawembeddedinthestatement.“Oh,Iwassoangryandwalkedrightbackhome”snappedbackthelady.Tradingislikewalkinginasnowyday;yo...[阅读全文]
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idle talks, nothing serious today :)
(2008-05-05 19:13:23)
BlueMonday,thatseemslikethethemelately,almosteveryMondayhasbeenadowndayasfarasIcanremember(mymemoryisshortthoughJ).Thegoodnewsisthatthisisnotapanicselling,thevolumeislow,asmatteroffact,manyleadingstocksremainpositivetodayordownwithreducedvolume.Itseemstomethattoday’sactionismoreofprofittakingthananythingelse.Onelessonweshouldlearnisthatifeveryoneseesthetrade,forexample,higherdollar,loweroil,thent...[阅读全文]
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Where are we ?
(2008-05-04 21:18:50)
Therearetimestrendiseasytospot,othertimes,itislikethewarofattrition,thebattlefieldisfullofconfusion,youseeenemiesandfriendsdottedthroughoutthebattleground,itishardtotellwhereyoursideofthefrontlineendsandwherethatofenemy’sbegins.Suchisthetimeforthemarket,Ifoundmyselftosearchinvainfortheproperwordstodescribethestateofthemarkettonight.Themostdifficultpartisthatitishardtofindthecatalystsforbothsides,...[阅读全文]
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This bull get legs
(2008-05-01 20:24:17)
ThereboundcamefasterthanIexpected,bytheendoftheday,allmajorindexeshaveovercametheirresistances,technically,a“breakout”isoccurred,obviously,weneedsomefollowthroughtoconfirm,butnevertheless,thepagehasturned,andweareenteringanewphase.Themainthemeofthecurrentconditioncanbesummarizedasgeneralmarketisinanuptrendandcommoditiesarebusted.Assuggestedseveralblogsago,itistimetobeinconsumerdiscretion,transpo...[阅读全文]
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The day after
(2008-04-30 19:54:18)
Therearelotsofexplanationsaswhythemarketreversedtoday.ButIthinktherealreasonsarethefollowing:·Thepatternof“buyatrumorandsellatnews”.SpeculationaroundthatFEDwillcut25bpsandsignala“pause”,so,thetradingbeforetheFEDdecisionwasjustasetup,once,thespeculationbecomeafact,peopletaketheprofit.·AsFEDpointedout,therearestillproblemsintheeconomy,thus,peopledonotwanttopushthemarketoutoflatesttradingrangeN...[阅读全文]
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all eyes and ears on FED
(2008-04-29 20:21:13)
Thewaitingwillbeoverbytheafternoontomorrow,whetherthismarkethasenteredintoanewtradingterritoryorbacktothetradingrangewillberevealedaftertheFEDratedecision.ItiswidelyexpectedthattheFEDwillcutrateby25bps.Whatisimportantisthestatementcompaniedthedecision.IfFEDshowssomeflexibilitytoagainstslowdowninsteadofconcernsaboutinflation,thenwemayseearallyofthemarket.Anythingdeviatesfromthisscriptscouldputtheri...[阅读全文]
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Exploitation of fear
(2008-04-28 19:39:29)
Peoplefearwhentheyshouldhopeandhopewhentheyshouldfear.Thatsummarizesnicelyaboutthestatusofthemarket.Backseveralweeksago,whencreditcrisisatitshighest,peoplepiledsomuchmoneytotimethebottom,nowthat,thecrisisseemspassed,andearningwasnotasbadasfeared,yetpeoplebecomeguyshytobuyintothestrength.Itisunderstandablewhypeoplefearatthispoint,sincethemarketperchesatthehighofthetradingbandandofcoursethereisFEDde...[阅读全文]
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A balance act hard to top..
(2008-04-27 19:17:49)
Themarketisalwaystricky,ifthereisindeedacrystalballforthemarket,gazingthroughitmustbelikeseeingintoakaleidoscope,colorful,multi-facetsbutdefinitelychaotic.Itwillbeevenmoredifficulttomakesensetowhatwillhappennextweekevenifyouhavethehelpfromtheoracle.Itwillbeabalancedact;itisthethreatofinflationagainstthethreatofslowdownoftheeconomy,so,choseyourpoison.Onanothertime,thechoicemightbeeasier,Butnow?Wear...[阅读全文]
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Market and Sectors
(2008-04-24 19:35:49)
Strangemarket,thisis.Onlastweek’sBarron,itisnotedthatevenifyouarerightoneverymacroeconomicturnthisyear,yourreturnismeager5%.Thereasonisthat,IMHO,itisnotenoughtoberightaboutthemarket;onehastoberightaboutthesectorsaswell.Whenonesectorcatchesfire,peoplesimplybuyeverythinginthesectorindiscriminately.Inagriculturebusinesssectorforexample,anycompanywithpotashinitsnamewentup,eventhoughIbetmostpeople(mei...[阅读全文]
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Under the shadow of the giants
(2008-04-23 21:19:01)
Themarketisunderearningspell,andtodayitisoperatedundertheshadowofearningfromAAPL.Evenarecedingofoilpriceandarisingdollarcannotprovideenoughmomentumtopowerthemarkethigher;nobodywantedtobetfororagainstAAPL.Obviously,themacroeconomywasnotfriendlytoAAPL,butAAPLalwayshadthemagictopullitoverinthepast.Theaftermarketseemslikeinvestorsdidnotlikethenumber,but,inreality,theearningisgreat,andAAPLhasalwayslowb...[阅读全文]
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