苍海泛舟
方显英雄本色-- 股市投资探讨
博文
(2008-09-27 08:29:49)
不说别的，包尔森和笨叔这次的救市计划是难得做对的好事。对稳定风雨飘摇的美国金融体系和股市无疑有着积极的影响。
周四开盘前，CNBC在对共和党资深参议圆的采访中得到了“两党几乎敲定”了700B救市计划的印象。股市在开盘后也大涨（Dow)300+。人们都期望着最迟下周一可以通过，并由总统签字生效。可周五，又横生枝节，出现共和党阵营的“内讧”，共和党保守[阅读全文]
(2008-09-25 19:09:05)
盘后发生了很多情况，WaMu成为美国历史上最大的破产银行，WM的财产以跳楼价卖给了JPMogen。700B救市计划搁浅。RIMMERmissed,盘后跳水。Future飞流直下三千尺。CreditMarket仍然冻结着，BondSpread仍然保持着近300个基本点。达到这样的高度，在历史上只有两次，一次是10/19/1987黑色星期一大崩盘。另一次就是上周四在700B救市计划的消息出来之前。
今天收盘3MonthsTreasuryyield0.75%,(因为[阅读全文]
(2008-09-24 14:11:44)
实际上，市场已经告述我们国会议将会通过700BRescueBill.应该对此做好准备。现在的盘势对多头有利。这个时候，应该在每天的低点静悄悄的买入QQQQ,SPY,AAPL等每天上下变化较大的ETFs和股票。并在高点（通常是20DMA,50DMA,的阻力带）卖出套利。有经验的DayTrader一天可以做几个来回。如果当天没有结论，在收盘前市场一定会收低。这时候，再买回QQQQ,andSPYcalls.为第二天获利做准备[阅读全文]
(2008-09-23 15:02:14)
Marketdidnotgetwhatitwantandresponsedaselloffbyendofsession.Butoverall,marketisorderlyretrace,VIXgethigheragain,butstillinorder.S&Ponceagainbelow1200whichiscriticaldefencelinetokeep.ItispossiblethatS&Pre-test1150tomorrowifCongressstillcan'tconcludeon700Brescueplan.Ithinkbyendofthisweek,Congressmustprovidesomethingtocalmthemarketwhichgraduallylostpatient.Thisiscriticaltimeagain,itwillb...[阅读全文]
(2008-09-23 08:58:07)
VIXiswellcontained,Dollarstrenthed,Oilstartdrop,S&Pholdabove1200.Bondyeildcontained.Internalbreadthisgood.
AllofthisinplicatethatMarketispreparingandreadyforarally.
NowiswaitingforCongresstopass700Brescueplan.
Don'tshort.Insteadbuydipandtakearideformarketrally.
Ithinkthisweek,congresswillpassthebill.Itcouldpassasearlyastoday.[阅读全文]
(2008-09-22 18:19:34)
AftersecondthoughtaboutshowingUYGplay,Idecidedtoclosethisthread.
EvenIhaveverydetailplanforeverymarketmove,itisstillinvolveagooddealofrisks.Itisalsorequiredsomeskillandexperienceinoptiontradingandmarkettimingwhichisnotsuitabletonewhands.Inaddition,sellingnakedputsrequiredoptionlevelIIIqualification.Ifyoudon'tknowtheriskandusethistootherstocks,youmayfaceagreatrisksbysellingnakedput.
Ifaexam...[阅读全文]
EvenIhaveverydetailplanforeverymarketmove,itisstillinvolveagooddealofrisks.Itisalsorequiredsomeskillandexperienceinoptiontradingandmarkettimingwhichisnotsuitabletonewhands.Inaddition,sellingnakedputsrequiredoptionlevelIIIqualification.Ifyoudon'tknowtheriskandusethistootherstocks,youmayfaceagreatrisksbysellingnakedput.
Ifaexam...[阅读全文]
(2008-09-22 15:18:47)
今天的盘基本上还是在预期的范围内的但是振幅比预期的要大。三大指数不但填满了上周五留下的空，而且把周五的涨幅都回吐了。政府的救市计划没有能在周末被国会通过是今天Selloff的主因。加上美元大幅回调，石油合同到期日触发“空杀空”的局面，使原油价格在没有任何重大消息的情况下一度暴涨达$25.这些因素加重了今天的抛盘。
S&P又到了一个关键的门槛，[阅读全文]
(2008-09-22 08:20:18)
BecauseofGov.ShortBan,YoucannotplaySKFanymore,it'sintegrityhasbeenseverelydamagedanditisbecomeaunfairtradeforallSKFtrader.Youcanhavemanycomplainsaboutthat,butfortraders,weneedtomakemoney,wedon'thavetimetoargueandwaitforthingssortout.Weneedworkaround,likewater,andmoveon.
Whenonedoorclosed,anotherwindowopened.
SowecanplayUYGinstead,itis2XfinanciallongETF.Thebestofall,itdoesnotimpactedbyShort...[阅读全文]
Whenonedoorclosed,anotherwindowopened.
SowecanplayUYGinstead,itis2XfinanciallongETF.Thebestofall,itdoesnotimpactedbyShort...[阅读全文]
(2008-09-21 17:11:06)
相信过去的一周会载入世界金融史册。我们每一个人都见证了历史的发生和发展。像见证七年前历史悲剧911发生一样，从那天开始，美国再也不是原来的美国，人们对安全的感受也彻底的改变了。而布什政府此后一系列的错误政治和经济政策正在把美国一步步引向崩溃的边缘。当一个伟大的国家开始自负的要成为世界的唯一主宰时，它就开始走向自己的反面。我们上周见证[阅读全文]
(2008-09-21 10:46:12)
Manypeopleaskedmeaboutthisquestion,soIthinkitiseasyformetoansweroncehereinsteadanswermanytimesseperately.Therearealreadysomeprofessionalarticlesregardingthistopic,pleasereferthosearticles.
HereiswhatIthinkaboutthisquestion:
ShortBanhasnegtiveimpacttoSKF,SEFandallfinancialshortETFs.Itdrysupliquidityandincreasethecostoftrading.YoumaypaymoreforSKF,SEFETFsandcallsatsameintrinsicvalue.SKFalsoha...[阅读全文]
HereiswhatIthinkaboutthisquestion:
ShortBanhasnegtiveimpacttoSKF,SEFandallfinancialshortETFs.Itdrysupliquidityandincreasethecostoftrading.YoumaypaymoreforSKF,SEFETFsandcallsatsameintrinsicvalue.SKFalsoha...[阅读全文]
