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JPM plays \'Hide the sausage\'(rasputin)
(2008-01-16 06:59:48)

JPMplays"Hidethesausage"rasputin
NEW1/16/20084:25:16AM So,JPMjustreported4thquarterresults.InthereleasetheyclaimtheyareONLYwritingdown$1.3billion,asreflectedinthisstatement:
"InvestmentBankfourth-quarterresultsdeclinedsignificantly.Resultsincluded:
-Markdownsof$1.3billion(netofhedges)onsubprimepositions,includingsubprimeCDOs...[阅读全文]
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The final bond insanity & blow off(norman)
(2008-01-15 20:05:19)

Nextmoveinbondsnorman
NEW1/15/20087:36:50PM Wehaveseensomebigmovesinbondsrecently.
Inmyviewthebondmarketinsanityisbehindthatofstocks&oil&gold&realestate&allelse,butcatchingupfast.
Thepublicisabouttomoveintobondsinabigway.
Iamtalkinghighqualitybondsofcourse.
Recentlytheshortdatedhavebeenunderperforming...[阅读全文]
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housing vs internet(ZT)
(2008-01-13 19:42:53)


TheInvesTechHousingBubbleBellwetherIndexhitafreshnewlowtodayasfearsofarecessionwreakedhavoconthehousingmarket.With30-yearmortgageratesstillabove6percentandbuyersreluctant,theoutlookremainsbleak.[阅读全文]
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the nation\'s wealth do understand that fire(Smith)
(2008-01-13 15:51:47)
CharlesHughSmithatoftwominds:Withtop1%owning60%ofallbonds,stocksandbusinessassets,versusbottom50%owningon2.5%ofnation'snetworth:
"Thetop1%doownfixedassets,ofcourse,justliketherestofus,andtheyareofcoursediversifiedaroundtheglobe.ButtheirU.S.liquidassetswouldberenderedworthlessbyhyper-inflation.Whywouldtheyallowthatcycletotakehold?
Finally,considertheirpositioninadeflationaryenvironment.Thin...[阅读全文]
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Overwhelmed by Debt? Not Necessarily(Walden)
(2008-01-12 15:58:16)
Andtherecertainlyappeartobeamplereasonstobeconcernedaboutbothalackofsavingandabuild-upofdebt.Intheearly1990s,householdsweresavingbetween8and10percentoftheirdisposableincome,aratemostfinancialexpertssayistheminimumrequired.In2006,thissavingratewasdowntoonly1percent.
Atthesametime,average(median)debtheldperhouseholdincreasedalmost40percentfromtheearly1990stothemid-2000s,andthisisevenafteradjusti...[阅读全文]
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“terminal decline” for banks’ modern business models(FT)
(2008-01-12 15:22:22)

Giveupnow?Citisees“terminaldecline”forbanks’modernbusinessmodels FirstMoody’s;nowCiti.Iseveryonelosingthefaithintheirabilitytodowhatitisthey’repaidfor,andthevalueofwhattheyproduce?Here’sasnapfromaCitiresearchnotelookingatthestrainedconditionofallthingsfinancial.Ina70-pagetomeentitled“TestingTimes,”thebank’schiefIBwatcherinEurope,JeremySigee,makesaconvincingcaseforsector-widecapitulation....[阅读全文]
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The Reality of Trade Deficits(Mauldin)
(2008-01-12 00:35:03)

TheRealityofTradeDeficitsThetradedeficitjumpedthismonthbyalmost10%,to$63billion.Tohearthecandidatestalk,wecanlowerthedeficitbyforcingChinatoallowitscurrencytorise,increaseourexportsbecauseofalowerdollar,stopourdependenceonhigh-pricedforeignoil,etc.Whatevertheproblemsare,theyarenotofourmaking.Let'slookatthereality.IaskedmyfriendsatPlexustocreateafewchartsforme.First,let'sseeifalowerdollarwillhaveam...[阅读全文]
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Mortgage Crisis to Corporate Debt Crisis(Noland)
(2008-01-11 23:46:13)
MortgageCrisistoCorporateDebtCrisis:ThefinancialsystemfellunderintensestressWednesday.Theepicenterofthecrisiswasinthe“Creditdefaultswap,”orCDSmarket,and“contagion”fearswerebuildingquiteaheadofsteam.ThepricingforCountrywideFinancialdefaultprotection(5-yrCDS)surgedahuge469basispointstoarecord1,610bps(itwouldcost$16,100annuallytoinsure$100,000ofCountrywidedebtagainstdefault).Forperspective,Countr...[阅读全文]
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The difference between the stagflations of the past and now(smok
(2008-01-11 23:32:20)
ThedifferencebetweenthestagflationsofthepastandTHISstagflationisthatconsumerdebtinflationuptonowhadyettoreachitspeak.
PeakDebt
ItistheFed'sabhorrenceofwageinflationthatwillkillthiscurrentstagflation..DEAD.
Thehigherthepricesforfoodandfuelrise,themorebusinesseswillcloseandthemorejobswillbelost.
TheFederalReserveBankingSystembasedonbleedingtheworkingpopulaceforthegainofthosewhodonotw...[阅读全文]
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UNPRODUCTIVE ASSETS, WASTED PRODUCTIVITY(Willie)
(2008-01-11 18:44:03)

UNPRODUCTIVEASSETS,WASTEDPRODUCTIVITY
JimWillieCB                        January10,2008
home:GoldenJackasswebsite
subscribe:HatTrickLetter
JimWillieCBistheeditorofthe"HATTRICKLETTER"Usetheabovelinktosubscribetothepaidresearchreports,whichincludecoverageofseveralsm...[阅读全文]
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