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at the end of the next few quarters(Mauldin)
(2008-01-26 00:09:49)
HereishowIthinkthenextfewquartersaregoingtoplayout.Eachnew
downgradetriggersmorelossesatfinancialinstitutions.Youdon'twritedownabond
insuredbyMBIAasAAAuntilthereisactuallyawrite-down.Andthenyoudo,and
announceitattheendofthequarter.Alongwiththerestofthelossescausedbynew
downgrades.Wearegoingtoseemassivewrite-offseveryquarterbythesamefinancial
institutionsthathavealreadywrittenof...[阅读全文]
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Insight: Japan’s lessons could ease crisis(Koo)
(2008-01-25 05:13:12)
Insight:Japan’slessonscouldeasecrisisByRichardKooPublished:January23200816:00|Lastupdated:January23200816:00Theechoesareeerie.BenBernanke’sgradualchangeoftoneduringthepastyearandthisweek’smassivecutininterestratesseemstoparallelthatofJapaneseofficialsbackin1992.Atthattime,aninitialperiodofdenialwasreplacedbytheshockingrealisationthatthedamagecausedbytheburstingofthebubblecouldtakeyearstorepair....[阅读全文]
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T-Bonds ran into VERY strong resistance at the 3.3%(kooala)
(2008-01-24 08:19:08)
Bondshadtheendoftheworldpricedin....ithasnowbeendelayed.
Moneythatwashidinginbondsisnowfleeingintoequitiesbeforeitmissesthemove.
BondsranintoVERYstrongresistanceatthe3.3%levelyesterday.
IFthereistobeanysortofeconomicrecovery,therewillbeademandformoney(rightnowthereisnone).Thepipelineforhomerefi'sisbuilding,sothatisonepotentialsourceofdemand.
Bondsjustgottooexpensiverelativetoanyr...[阅读全文]
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Reading Rothbard(mannfm11)
(2008-01-24 07:47:43)

 ReadingRothbardmannfm11
NEW1/23/200810:40:40PM Thisisfrompage11ofAmerica'sGreatDepression:
Nowwhathappenswhenbanksprintnewmoney(whetheras
banknotesorbankdeposits)andlendittobusiness?6Thenewmoneypoursforthontheloanmarketandlowerstheloanrateofinterest.Itlooksasifthesupplyofsavedfundsforinvestmenthasincreased,fortheeffect...[阅读全文]
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The Market Braces for the Boomers(wsj)
(2008-01-22 21:34:32)

TheMarketBracesfortheBoomersSponsoredby byAlanMurray
Sunday,January6,2008providedbyWillthebabyboomers'retirementcausethestockmarkettogobust?Thatquestion,studiedanddebatedformorethanadecade,isnolongerhypothetical.KathleenCasey-Kirschling,theformerNewJerseyteacherwhowasbornonesecondaftermidnightonJanuary1,1946,becameeligibleforSocialSecuritybenefitsthisNewYear'sday,makingherthefirstsplashofa...[阅读全文]
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Is it 1998 again?(mannfm11)
(2008-01-22 19:52:53)

Isit1998again?mannfm11
NEW1/22/20087:36:05PM No,1998wascurablebythefedbecausetheUShadcollateralleft,themarketwasragingtogoeverhigher(bycomparison,thisonehasbeeninslowmotion)anditwasasituationthatwasexternaltotheUS,somesmallAsiancountries,RussiaandLTCM.Thisoneissystematic.1998didn'thavebankstaking11digitwriteoffswithmostlikelymoretoc...[阅读全文]
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Recapitalize banks by bond again?(mannfm11)
(2008-01-22 19:13:55)

Recapitalizebanksmannfm11
NEW1/22/200812:14:47PM SomeonesaidtheFedcutratestorecapitalizethebanks.Theyrecapitalizedthebanksbackin1990bygivingthebanksthattookoverbondsinplaceofthebadloans,butthebondswereyieldingprettyfairrates.Theythencutratesgivingthebondsapremium.Today,iftheydidthesamething,itwouldn'tworkbecauseratesarerockbottom.Al...[阅读全文]
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Take profits on long duration bond positions (ZT)
(2008-01-21 21:13:01)

BCAResearch:Takeprofitsonlongdurationbondpositions
"Valuationandotheryardsticksarguethatinvestorsshouldtrimbonddurationtobenchmark.TheUSandglobalslowdownhasfurthertoplayoutandcreditmarketstrainsarelikelytoremainelevatedforsometime.Nonetheless,thegovernmentbondmarketrallyisgettingstretched,andwesuggesttakingprofitsonabove-benchmarkdurationpositions."First,ourvaluationmodelsshowthatUSandG710-yea...[阅读全文]
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confidence is vastly greater than $400bn(ZT)
(2008-01-21 21:06:56)

"The$400bnoflossesforecastisinsignificantcomparedtoitemsinthetable,notleastDB'scalculationof$149.1trnfortotalworldfinancialmarkets.However,theongoingandmoreseriousproblemthathasyettobecheckedconcernsconfidence.Thesetbackinstockmarketvaluationssincethesub-primerelatedproblemsbrokeisvastlygreaterthan$400bn.[阅读全文]
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At this point... Cash$ is King(smokey)
(2008-01-21 20:44:07)

Atthispoint...CashisKing.smokey
NEW1/21/20088:29:48PM Whatwearewitnessingisacollapseoftheforeignassetbubbleswhichwerefedbythedollarcarrytradeof'02-'04.
Dollarborrowerswhotradedthosedollarsforforeigncurrenciesinordertopumptheforeignstockmarketbubblesarenowsellingthosestocks,andtradingtheforeigncurrenciesfordollarsinordertocall-of...[阅读全文]
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