![](http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/losersaveragelosers.jpg><br><br>Paul Tudor Jones is the founder of Tudor Investment Corporation, which is the management company for his various private investment partnerships, also referred to as hedge funds. As of March 2010, he was estimated to have a net worth of USD 3.2 billion by Forbes Magazine and ranked by them at #297.<br><br>Jones\)
PaulTudorJones
PaulTudorJonesisthefounderofTudorInvestmentCorporation,whichisthemanagementcompanyforhisvariousprivateinvestmentpartnerships,alsoreferredtoashedgefunds.AsofMarch2010,hewasestimatedtohaveanetworthofUSD3.2billionbyForbesMagazineandrankedbythemat#297.
Jones\'firmcurrentlymanages$17.7billion(asofJune1,2007).Theirinvestmentcapabilitiesarebroadanddiverse,includingglobalmacrotradin...[
阅读全文]
themainreasonIcomearoundhereoccasionallyis瞧瞧这谭子里的大师们在吹嘘啥-大泡泡当中的房子、GovernmentMotors,如今又是个小小的能源垃圾股,每当泡泡被pump到不能再大、谭子里人声鼎沸时,就是退出风险拿cash的最佳时机,在这点上得谢谢大师们的无私奉献
俺本人90年代曾经去过美国的能源重地Texas,在油、气田上投机是Texans百年来的传统项目,在Houston街头巷尾的烤肉酒吧里说不定就能[
阅读全文]
![](http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/1yrreturn.png><br><br>政府疯狂印钱的后果就是啥都在涨,就是与房子有关的在跌(看回报最惨的那个是啥?)<br><br>好,假使房租加房价一年涨了10%,可实际上不还是亏死了,因为能买到的实物商品少太多了,这么简单的事实都看不出来还整天忽悠个啥?<br><br>还没被忽悠进去的人最好远离此地,呆久了对钱包有害<br><br><br>版主,你是对俺的帖子有意见是不?如山大师原始的帖子还在,俺之后回复他的帖子却不见了,是因为他是大师我不是,还是只有吹捧房子的帖才能上这个实质性的房坛?<br><br>)
就是从管里只看到豹子身上的一个斑点,就硬说整个豹子是黑的
好,假使某同学确实以几分之一的价钱在中西部的‘生锈地带’或南部的沙子地带幸运地买了超值的破产房,与在加州或纽约的你我又有什么关系?
正如政治贿赂金通过多于议员人数几倍的游说人流入某些DC的政客和政府官员手里,就认为在其它地方钱也来得那么容易,逻辑有毛病吗?
股市上隔一阵子就[
阅读全文]
![](http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/zimbabwestockmarket.gif><br><br>两千块变成四百万够高了吧,可是当用来计价的东西同时以10的几十次方贬值的时候,四百万连一颗糖豆都买不到,钱最终是用来换取别的商品的,不是看当数字看着玩的<br><br><img src=http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/Zimbabwe_Exchange_Rate.gif><br><br>正如火车上的人得根据固定的站台计算速度,而不是看另一列移动的火车,不然还以为自己也在以每小时300公里的速度前进那<br><br>房价用本身数量不太变的东西衡量,回报是这样的:<br><br><img src=http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/housingingold.gif><br><br><br>392同学问了如山个好问题,“为什么史上最伟大的 investor 巴菲特从来不投资房地产?”对此,如山做了解释,我再补充几点<br><br>首先,巴菲特知道股票的长期真实回报比房子好很多(蓝线是没计算现金分红,橙色线计算分红):<br><br>股市通胀后回报,1950至今<br><img src=http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/SP500_real_return.png><br><br>房子通胀后回报<br><img src=http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/housingflat.png><br><br>其次,巴菲特能管得过来的房子数量很有限,假如巴菲特当初搞房产,那他肯定就不是今天的巴菲特了<br><br>还有,不要以为老巴买了股票永远不卖,他是买对了的股票永远不卖,买错了的赶紧卖掉,不信去仔细读读他公司的交易报表;假如是个倒房子的,那是你想卖的时候没人买,不想卖的时候太多人抢着买<br><br><br>最后想说的是,若问酷暑中吃啥最好?卖水的说喝水,卖西瓜的说吃西瓜,还有做火锅店的说吃火锅,理由是能把汗给逼出来<br><br>如大师是做房地产的,所以他只说租金回报、房贷减税、...等等好处,却不说到银行贷款的难处、还贷款时的辛酸、折旧维修时的辛苦、与赖皮房客打交道时的精神折磨... 与其那样,学做个 plumber 间接地做房地产怎么样?每个月的现金收入恐怕比收租还要好吧?<br><br>所以说最终每个人都得为自己的决定负责,谁也想不要说服谁,如山大师说的一点我举双手赞成,那就是做一行爱一行,既然是那么客观的态度,那就不要再坚持房子永远是最好的投资,因为它在历史上任何时候都不是真实回报最好的投资,房子首先是用来居住的,尤其是在房子过剩的今天,想把它作为投资工具的每个人都需要慎重考虑清楚<br><br><br><br>)
来说说如山dashi洋洋洒洒谈房子回报的那篇宏文,如山说回报就是“你做这个投资放入了多少现金,最终拿回来了多少”,那来看看这个现金回报高不高:
两千块变成四百万够高了吧,可是当用来计价的东西同时以10的几十次方贬值的时候,四百万连一颗糖豆都买不到,钱最终是用来换取别的商品的,不是看当数字看着玩的
正如火车上的人得根据固定的站台计算速度,而[
阅读全文]
![](http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/10yryield.png><br><br>真实房价<br><img src=http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/housingflat.png><br><br><br>Americans Shun Cheapest Homes in 40 Years as Owning Loses Appeal<br>bloomberg<br>By Kathleen M. Howley - Apr 18, 2011<br><br>The most affordable real estate in a generation is failing to lure buyers as Americans sour on the idea of home ownership. Photographer: Matthew Staver/Bloomberg <br><br>Victoria Pauli signed a one-year lease last week to stay in her rental home in Fair Oaks, California. She had considered buying in the area, where property prices have slumped 57 percent since a 2005 peak. <br><br>In the end, she decided it wasn’t worth it. <br><br>“I know people who have watched their home values get cut in half, and I know people who are losing their homes,” said Pauli, 31, who works as a property manager for a real estate company. “It’s part of the American dream to want to own your own home, and I used to feel that way, but now I tell myself: Be careful what you wish for.” <br><br>The most affordable real estate in a generation is failing to lure buyers as Americans like Pauli sour on the idea of home ownership. At the end of 2010, the fourth year of the housing collapse, the share of people who said a home was a safe investment dropped to 64 percent from 70 percent in the first quarter. The December figure was the lowest in a survey that goes back to 2003, when it was 83 percent. <br><br>“The magnitude of the housing crash caused permanent changes in the way some people view home ownership,” said Michael Lea, a finance professor at San Diego State University. “Even as the economy improves, there are some who will never buy a home because their confidence in real estate is gone.” <br>Worse Than Depression <br><br>Historically, homes have been a safer investment than equities. During 2008, the worst year of the housing crisis, the median U.S. home price declined 15 percent, compared with a more than 38 percent plunge in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. <br><br>Americans stay in their homes for a median of eight years, according to the National Association of Realtors in Chicago. Someone who bought a home in 2002 and sold in 2010 saw a 4.8 percent increase in value, based on the annualized median price measured by the group. The average annual gain in the past 20 years was 4.2 percent. <br><br>Falling prices have made real estate the best buy in at least four decades. Housing affordability reached a record in December, according to National Association of Realtors data that go back to 1970. The group bases its gauge on property prices, mortgage rates and the median U.S. income. <br><br>The median U.S. home price tumbled 32 percent from a 2006 peak to a nine-year low in February, data from the Realtors show. The retreat surpassed the 27 percent drop seen in the first five years of the Great Depression, according to Stan Humphries, chief economist of Zillow Inc., a Seattle-based real estate information company. <br>Not Risk-Free <br><br>“If we’ve learned anything from this mess, it’s that housing is not a risk-free investment,” said Michelle Meyer, a senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research in New York. “Everyone knows someone underwater in their mortgage or struggling to sell a home.” <br><br>About 11 million U.S. homes were worth less than their mortgages at the end of 2010, according to CoreLogic Inc., a Santa Ana, California-based real estate information company. An additional 2.4 million borrowers had less than five percent equity, meaning they’ll be underwater with even slight price declines, according to the March 8 report. The two categories add up to 28 percent of residences with mortgages. <br><br>The share of Americans who said they plan to purchase a home in the next six months tumbled 23 percent in March, according to the Conference Board research firm in New York. The National Association of Realtors probably will say tomorrow that existing-home sales were at a 5 million annual rate in March, up 2.5 percent after a 9.6 percent plunge in February, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. <br>Improving Employment <br><br>The drop in confidence may be temporary. Home sales probably will rise 4.1 percent to 5.1 million in 2011, with the biggest increases in the second half of the year, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in an April 14 report. In 2012, sales may climb 5.9 percent to 5.4 million, the highest pace since 2007, the Washington-based trade group estimated. <br><br>A rebound in home sales depends on the availability of jobs, the mortgage association said. The unemployment rate probably will decline every quarter of this year and next, falling to 7.9 percent by 2012’s end, the trade group said. It was 8.8 percent last month, the lowest in two years. <br><br>“We expect that purchase activity will pick up slowly as the improvement in the job market eventually leads to greater willingness to buy,” the mortgage bankers group said. <br>Low Mortgage Rates <br><br>Borrowing costs are at historic lows. The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.69 percent last year, the lowest in annual data going back to 1972, according to mortgage financier Freddie Mac, based in McLean, Virginia. The rate in March was 4.84 percent, the company said. <br><br>By 2012’s fourth quarter, the average fixed rate may rise to 6 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. <br><br>“If you can jump through the hoops to get a mortgage, and there will be hoops, then this is an amazing time to purchase real estate,” said Robert Stein, a senior economist at First Trust Portfolios LP in Wheaton, Illinois, and the former head of the Treasury Department’s Office of Economic Policy. “There are going to be a lot of people kicking themselves a few years from now because they didn’t take advantage of the low prices and the low mortgage rates.” <br><br>Cheap financing hasn’t done enough to boost home sales in part because lenders are being more selective with applicants, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Fed policy makers have described the housing market as “depressed” in statements following their last eight meetings. <br>Tighter Lending <br><br>“Although mortgage rates are low and house prices have reached more affordable levels, many potential homebuyers are still finding mortgages difficult to obtain and remain concerned about possible further declines in home values,” Bernanke said in Congressional testimony last month. <br><br>The share of banks reporting tighter mortgage standards in the first quarter rose to 16 percent, the highest since 1991, according to the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey. <br><br>Federal regulators are proposing rules that may make lending even more stringent, including a requirement that banks and bond issuers keep a stake in home loans they securitize if the mortgage borrowers have imperfect credit and down payments of less than 20 percent. Borrowers who don’t meet the criteria would pay higher rates to compensate lenders for risk. <br><br>As mortgage requirements rise, rates could follow as Congress and the Obama administration consider phasing out government-controlled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The companies hold federal charters mandating they increase the availability of mortgages through securitization. In Fannie Mae’s case, that order goes back to the Great Depression, when it was created as part of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal. <br>Unsettled Issues <br><br>“There are a lot of unsettled policy issues on the table right now that, if they’re not handled right, could further set back the housing market,” said Richard DeKaser, an economist at Parthenon Group in Boston. “Fannie and Freddie have historically lowered interest rates, and eliminating them will increase the cost of home ownership.” <br><br>The U.S. home ownership rate dropped to 66.5 percent in the fourth quarter, the lowest in more than a decade, according to the Census Department. The rate probably will retreat another percentage point by 2013, according to Meyer, of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and Lea, the finance professor. That would put it back to a 1997 level. <br><br>“People will still aspire to own their own homes,” Lea said. “They’ll just be a lot more practical about it.” <br><br>Pauli, the California renter, said she has no such aspirations, at least for now. She pays $1,500 a month for her three-bedroom, single-family home with a two-car garage, granite kitchen countertops and stainless-steel appliances. Her neighbors who bought before the housing crash typically have mortgage payments of about $2,800 a month, Pauli said. <br><br>“I don’t see myself purchasing, even with all the great prices I see,” Pauli said. “Going to bed every night worrying about your home value doesn’t sound like a good time to me.”<br><br>http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-19/americans-shun-most-affordable-homes-in-generation-as-owning-loses-appeal.html)
啥叫线性思维?就是把过去的经历画一条直线无限延伸到未来,可现实不是那么玩儿的,儿童时的宝贝会变成少年时的垃圾
过去三十年对美国社会最有影响的就是由联储会的一低再低的利率政策吹大的金融泡沫、债务泡沫,美国的房价只不过是其中的症状之一。如果俺赶上了那个好时机,那是俺的狗屎运,俺可不敢说俺有多聪明、自以为找到了财富的源泉,更没脸去教别人[
阅读全文]
![](http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/oil.gif><br><br>金<br><img src=http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/gold.gif><br><br>美纸<br><img src=http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/usd.gif><br><br><br>到香港的店铺里去问问是想收人民币还是美纸?如今就连跨国大公司 Unilever, McDonald’s, Caterpillar ... 都在发行‘点心’债券、持有人民币<br><br>http://www.cnbc.com/id/42300803/Unilever_in_Dim_Sum_Bond_Move<br><br>现在中国的对外贸易越来越多的直接用人民币结算,人民币成为流通货币肯定比大多数人想象的快,制造生活必需品的注定比印刷钞票骗来骗去的更靠得住这是中学生都知道的常识<br><br>http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13092520<br><br><br>从俩出租房主儿的角度出发谈论什么国际货币就像是井底之蛙嚷嚷太阳没有月亮大,省点唾沫口水去给房客修修马桶也算是件正事儿)
自己睁开眼睛看一看不就得了?
油
金
美纸
到香港的店铺里去问问是想收人民币还是美纸?如今就连跨国大公司Unilever,McDonald’s,Caterpillar...都在发行‘点心’债券、持有人民币
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42300803/Unilever_in_Dim_Sum_Bond_Move
现在中国的对外贸易越来越多的直接用人民币结算,人民币成为流通货币肯定比大多数人想象的快,制造生活必需品的注定比印刷钞票骗[
阅读全文]
![](http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20APRIL/1SEVENRULES.jpg>)
这几年前就好像尽人皆知了
FortuneMagazine
August14,2000
10StocksToLastTheDecadeAfewmajortrendswilllikelyshapethenexttenyears.Here\'sabuy-and-forgetportfoliotocapitalizeonthem.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2000/08/14/285599/index.htm
FortuneMagazine\'sTenStockstoLasttheDecade
[
阅读全文]
是可以理解的,毕竟看着自己房子的实际购买力每个月贬值的滋味不太好受。
可事实是市场上有好几百万负资产的房主急着脱手解套,还有此后15-20年内越来越多的baby-boomers想要卖掉房子到个便宜又暖和的地方退休,而买方根本没必要着急,房价不连着好几个月还在下降吗?这个是供需关系的主流。
每天想靠口水唾沫重新吹大瘪下去的房产泡泡已经是不可能的了,就连NA[
阅读全文]
正如三年里资产翻倍的人才有信誉谈贵金属,其他再多的唾沫口水都不值得你浪费时间。
Don\'twasteyourtime.JustignorethemandgomakesomeREALmoney!
Inflation,HyperinflationandRealEstate(or,TheLessonsofTheGreatHernánP.)
GonzaloLira(whohasexperiencedhyperinflationinSouthAmerica.)
Saturday,February12,2011
“Hyperinflationaccompaniedbyahousingcollapseissimplyimpossible—bydefinition.”—None...[
阅读全文]
![](http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/buygold2000/2011%20MARCH/RETAX.gif> <br><br>According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation measures, if property taxes had risen along with inflation, the total property tax revenues nationally would have risen from $210 billion in 1996--more or less about the start of housing\)
Theultimatetaxhostageisthepropertyowner.Thebusinessownercanpullupstakesandleave,thewageearnercantransferorgetanotherjobelsewhere,andtheconsumercanrestricthis/herconsumptiontolowertheburdenofsalestaxes,butthepropertyowneristheperfecttaxdonkeybecausethetransactioncostsofsellingaresoprohibitive.
CouldDecliningHouseValuesSparktheNextTaxpayerRebellion?(March30,2011)
CharlesHughSmith
Youmigh...[
阅读全文]