刚才下午专门做的视频。家长有心的话,每天省下一些看微信的时间,什么心灵鸡汤也赶不上真正的经典。花15分钟,可以听、或者读《论语。学而第一》三遍,坚持三周,一定滚瓜烂熟。
如果家长自己这么一点EFFORT都不肯付出的话,今后就不要抱怨孩子中文学不好了。
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关于三扇门的题目,jujubug的做法就不错,我再补充一下
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/znjy/2591218.html
一开始,假设任意选了一扇门,然后,主持人选了一扇里面是羊的门,
那么,就面临选择,switchornot?
看起来,剩下的两扇门的概率都是1/2,其实不然。
一开始选的那扇门,里面有汽车的概率确实是1/3,然而,当主持人选了一扇里面是
羊的那扇门之后,其实已经证明第三[
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再用100个金币的例子来说,我们把问题变换一下,现在两个盒子的外形完全一样,但是其中一个是100个金币,另一个是99个金币。
现在的随机过程是把盒子随机摇一摇,这样,每个盒子里面的钱币的排列顺序就随机了。
然后,随机取一个盒子,这时,取到其中一个盒子的概率是一样的,都是1/2。
下一个步骤是,打开盒子,如果前面99个是金币,那么第100个是金币[
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)
你们大概都在西部吧,昨天你们讨论得热火朝天的时候,我已经呼呼大睡了。
说实话,如果不仔细想,我也会认为是1/2,仔细一想,觉得这个问题还是很有趣的。
我做了个数值模拟,生成3000组随机数,第一个数代表第一个数代表盒子,第二个数代表这个盒子里先出现的是哪一个币。
结果如下:
本题的结果跟我们的直觉不一致,主要原因是,这里所讨论的情形只[
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国务卿
JohnForbesKerry
KerrywasborninAurora,ColoradoandattendedboardingschoolinMassachusettsandNewHampshire.HegraduatedfromYaleUniversityclassof1966withapoliticalsciencemajor,andwasamemberoftheSkullandBonessecretsociety.UndertheguidanceofthespeakingcoachandhistoryprofessorRollinOsterweis,Kerrywonmanydebatesagainstothercollegestudentsfromacrossthenation.
AfterreceivinghisJ.D.fr...[
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http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/science/948189.html
看到前面帖子说到给孩子订杂志的事情。我也订了,所以在说几句。现在的NationalGeographicforkids除了广告没有多少内容了,一个儿童杂志里里外外充满了广告,在我看来这些广告给五六岁的孩子很多不好的消费引导。我是NationalGeographic的忠实读者,但这个“NationalGeographicforkid”让人失望,今年不会再续订。如果要看science的书,图书馆有[
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