1.Bondequivalentratingsamongtopratingagencies
EquivalentCreditRatingsCreditRiskMoody's*Standard&Poor's**FitchIBCA**Duff&Phelps**INVESTMENTGRADEHighestqualityAaaAAAAAAAAAHighquality(verystrong)AaAAAAAAUppermediumgrade(strong)AAAAMediumgradeBaaBBBBBBBBBNOTINVESTMENTGRADELowermediumgrade(somewhatspeculative)BaBBBBBBLowgrade(speculative)BBBBPoorquality(maydefault)CaaCCCCCCCCCMostspeculativ...[
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Withworldstockmarketslostalmost$30trillionin2008,andinvestmentsacrossotherassetclassesexceptUStreasuriesallplummeted,everythinglookscheapnowexcepttreasuries.Butoneinvestmentstandingoutiscorporatedebt,investmentgrade.Althoughitsyieldhascomedowninthelastthreemonths,itisstillnottoolatetogetin.
Butthedramaticspreadwideningincorporatecreditrightnowseemsreallyabnormal.Thecurrentcorporatedebtspreadsh...[
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Acamediamaysayneitherfundamentalnortechnicalanalysiscanbeatthemarket,yetIamstillafundamentalist.
S&P500P/Ediddipto7before.Butwithmarketriskpremiumconstantlydeclininginthepastfiftyyearsorso,S&P500hasbeentradingat15timesofearningsonaverage.SoasS&P500companiesareexpectedtoproduceacollective$94.81ofearningspershare(EPS)in2009,andtheindexclosedat903today,implyingan09fwdP/Eof10.Thisis35%...[
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