土耳其、红旗-9、西方法治、美国试验反导

土耳其、红旗-9、西方法治、美国试验反导

说实在的，还是老话，我本来不想写这个土耳其买红旗-9的，本来嘛，这么简单的事情，又有什么好说的呢？

可是我已经写了一个帖子了，叫《土耳其买红旗-9和不战而屈人之兵》，有兴趣的网友点击进去浪费时间吧。

而且，我在我的《土耳其买红旗-9和不战而屈人之兵》里一开始就说了：

“我先把几句简单的话说了，一句是技术和秘密不是我们老百姓考虑的问题，有专家呢；另一句是价钱也不是问题，不是因为老中现在有钱，任何企业开张的头几笔生意价钱也都不是问题，特别是军火买卖还没电视广告也不雇大腕明星代言的开销呢。”

唉，谁让我看不上别人的评论呢，我没给自己把住门儿，说了青衫老祖的《中国决定出口红旗9释放什么信号？》这些都是明摆着滴，肤浅了

结果呢，被人家抓住了，说我“那有空请谈点更深刻的”，我自作自受，没办法，我与人为善吧，不以为你这是冷言冷语讽刺挖苦，就牺牲一些锻炼身体的时间

我还是接着我的《土耳其买红旗-9和不战而屈人之兵》说，简单的说就是军火买卖不是一般的买卖，东西好坏只是个借口，军火买卖的实质是交保护费，你买美国的武器，哪怕美国只是给你一些空壳子，你也是安全的，因为你有了美国的东西就基本上保证没人会甚至敢打你了，所以，你家里摆着的那些“爱国者3”差不多就是个护身符。

从综合实力来说，今天的美国虽然今非昔比也依然是老大，比喻一下就是个教父，有教父签字的护身符就是没人敢揭，就这么简单。

所以，土耳其打算买红旗-9其实是不打算给老大交保护费了，至少也是保护费交少了，不只是土耳其跟北约和美国矛盾公开的问题那么简单。

因为不给老大交保护费就没有老大的保护了，虽然不是黑白分明这么简单，但是，你家里贴的有教父签字的护身符少一张，你的问题就会多一些，如果说本来就有矛盾的话，而且现在公开了，那就是原来的矛盾的激烈程度会激化，而且还会产生新的矛盾。

老中有句话叫“不当家不知柴米贵”，跟老大闹别扭，老大就可能不会帮你摆平一些问题了，不仅会产生新的矛盾，老大本人就可能给你麻烦，比如说穿个小鞋什么的。

因此，你不给这个教父交保护费了，你就得有一个新的教父去交保护费，否则你就是丧家之犬了，想想被“逐出山门”的处境，而且“北约”是军事安全联盟，一不小心就是反目成仇，军事安全联盟可不是过家家好聚好散那么简单滴。

这就是我在我的《土耳其买红旗-9和不战而屈人之兵》最后说的：

可是，毕竟军火买卖不是一般的买卖，不是谁的好就买谁的那么简单，因为军火买卖有交保护费的性质，特别是对小国来说。

那么，究竟是红旗-9的表现给了土耳其安全感呢？

仅仅一套或几套红旗-9显然是远远不够滴。

还是红旗-9后面的中国给了土耳其安全感呢？

大家拭目以待吧，嘿嘿！

好了，我的意思就是说中国可能是世界这个森林法则里的可以保护跟教父翻了脸的孩子的家，也可能是地球这个蓝色星球上的防海盗的一个避风港。

这就是中国必须以英美为目标的原因，印度以中国为目标跟美国友好永远没有出头之日。

超英赶美，大跃进万岁！

抽象的就说这么些，现在说具体的，也就是技术，红旗-9是防空武器。

好比你是个足球守门员，如果那些一流超级球星都在你的队里，你就不必防他们了，对吧？

国家守门也是一个道理，因此，基本上可以肯定的说，如果土耳其买了美国的爱国者3或欧洲的神马玩意儿，甚至包括俄国的神马玩意儿，那土耳其就不必担心F-16了，因为有F-16的国家，只要美国一句话就差不多可以保证土耳其的安全，当然了，前提是土耳其给美国交保护费。

所以，现在，土耳其打算买红旗-9，土耳其第一个要考虑的问题就是红旗-9是否可以面对F-16，因为这个世界上的F-16还是挺多滴啊！

因为红旗-9是防空武器，这就好比足球队决定雇佣那个守门员，那是要看将来可能面临的对手滴，红旗-9如果对付不了F-16的话，当然还包括跟F-16类 似的东西，大家想一想，因为土耳其买红旗-9必然同时得罪美国和北约，如果红旗-9对付不了F-16的话，那么，土耳其买红旗-9还有什么意义呢？

军火买卖，钱当然重要，实在还是安全第一，如果买某种武器得罪人产生新问题的话，那么这些新问题就应该是可以解决的，或至少也是不必担心影响安全的，花100块，安全了就值，花99块，不安全等于零99块打水漂，花1块，不安全也是白花。

小鬼子应该也不傻吧？

谢谢土耳其兄弟！！！

让丫挺的再说一遍打中国巡航钓鱼岛的无人机？

就鬼子知道武器好能欺负人啊？

啥叫不战而屈人之兵？

这就叫不战而屈人之兵。

现在说几句西方法治，白人的孩子们搞了几个对中国的限制，号称不许卖中国武器，还是没说不许买中国武器，看来他们还真以为老中喊的“超英赶美”口号是闹着玩儿的哪。

兵不厌诈啊！

有趣的是中国出口红酒的公司也是有老美法制限制的公司，可是只是限制卖东西给这个公司，不限制买，嘿嘿。

当然了，我再说一遍，从综合实力来说，今天的美国虽然今非昔比也依然是老大！！！

但是，在导弹防空和反导这方面还真说不定哪。

老大有老大的好处，因为老大有天下最锋利的矛，而且老大的天下最锋利的矛扎的都是天下很不坚固的盾。

我前几天回网友的《说心理效果已达成更好一点，又不能直接交火，第三方检验武器就相当于比武》里已经说过了：

“土鸡要麻烦了是明摆着滴，论不论都是一样

土鳖不仅不会有麻烦，而且麻烦只会减少，因为土鳖的武器水平显然超出老美的判断了

假设老美了解红酒的水平，假设老美的水平高于红酒的水平，老美就应该拿出跟红酒水平接近的东西让土鸡试验，对吧？

老美也应该很容易做到这一点，因为假设老美了解红酒的水平和老美的水平高于红酒的水平，对吧？

由于土鸡试验的结果显然不如老美的意，因此，上面的假设至少有一条不成立，对吧？

那么，咱替土鳖谦虚一点，承认老美的水平高于红酒的水平，甚至承认老美的水平高于土鳖的水平，也就是说老美不了解红酒的水平。

老美不知彼啊，对吧？

其实呢，不知彼是跟不知己联系在一起的，特别是武器技术方面，因为不知彼就不知道自己的武器能不能搞定对手，因此就会影响信心，拿不准自己是否有足够的能力搞定对手，对吧？

所以，土鳖不仅不会有麻烦，而且麻烦只会减少，至少在短时期内是这样滴，对吧？

有人嫌我说车轱辘话罗嗦，可是为了把话说说清楚的目的，多说一点也不浪费，嘿嘿”

对此，我在我的《这事不是非黑即白的，根本永远都是知己知彼》里有详细的解释。

所以，当我看到网友转贴的《美国再次完成反导试验 成功拦载1枚中程导弹》里面提到这次试验“接近实战”，我就说了“败给红酒，接近实战就是意.淫时看3D片儿，找面子壮壮胆而已，老美反导试验成功一概不可信”。

老美有一次反导，煞有介事的用潜艇发射，打一个间谍卫星，间谍卫星都有自毁系统，有木有？

而且间谍卫星的自毁系统是非常非常非常可靠滴，启动自毁系统就成功了，嘿嘿，老美的矛很牛，是天下第一，反正我就是不信老美的盾，谁宣传我也不信，这么宣传我也不信，反正爱国者打萨达姆的导弹不算，以色列的添穷打黎巴嫩的火箭也不算。

也许老美自己手里的“爱国者3”是真的，反正鬼子手里的“爱国者3”是真的扯淡，鬼子号称要拦北朝鲜的导弹说了多少次了，真他妈的不要脸，包括老美，中国 地球上如果拦截导弹最没风险最没后果的恐怕就是北朝鲜了，再说北朝鲜的导弹也不是什么先进技术，“爱国者3”是骡子是马拉出来遛遛。

导弹打飞机本来就是老中的首创，用的是苏联的导弹，苏联都不认为他们的导弹能打U-2，老中不仅首创导弹打灰机，而且打的还是老美的灰机哪！

一句话，老中防空就是打老美的灰机长大的，吃的就是打老美的灰机这碗饭。

记得反导还是毛主席跟他的亲家孔从洲将军提的，毛主席对他说“有矛就有盾”，大家想想看，那是多少年前的事情了。

最后，请大家看一篇路透社的报道文章，因为里面有两段很有趣，我最后评论一下这两段，其实我已经评论过了，这就是我不想写这个帖子的原因，不仅基本上都是常识，而且基本上我都说过了。

我把这篇路透社的报道文章全文拷在这里，大家可看可不看，我只是给有兴趣的网友方便，也给我自己留个纪念。

这篇路透社的报道文章全文：

链接：http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/03/us-turkey-china-defence-idUSBRE99205L20131003

Turkey 'highly likely' to sign Chinese missile deal

(Reuters) - Turkey is likely to sign a $3.4 billion missile defense deal with a Chinese firm under U.S. sanctions, a senior official said on Thursday, a proposal that is already straining relations with Washington.

Turkey sees a growing threat of spillover from the war in neighboring Syria, as well as wider turbulence in the Middle East, and has been scrambling to bolster its air defenses.

Murad Bayar, Undersecretary of Defence Industries at the Defence Ministry, told reporters in Ankara that Turkey could finalize the deal with China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp (CPMIEC) within six months.

Turkey's Defence Ministry said last week it had chosen CPMIEC's FD-2000 missile defense system over more expensive rival systems from Russian, U.S. and European firms. Despite Bayar's comments, Turkish leaders have stressed the deal is not final.

The United States has expressed "serious concerns" over North Atlantic Treaty Organisation member Turkey cooperating with CPMIEC, under sanctions for violations of the Iran, North Korea and Syria Nonproliferation Act.

But Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Turkey, which shares a 900-km (560-mile) border with Syria and has NATO's second largest deployable military force, urgently needed to step up its air defenses.

"With the latest crisis in Syria and the crises in the Middle East, we have realized ... that however strong our armed forces are in terms of conventional weapons, they are not at the desired level to counter missile and related threats," he said in an interview on local television on Wednesday.

Turkey has seen Syria's conflict frequently spill across its frontier and has responded in kind when mortars and shells fired from Syria have hit its soil.

CHEMICAL WEAPONS

The government is also concerned about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's chemical weapons arsenal, particularly after a sarin nerve gas attack on a Damascus suburb in August, and parliament voted on Thursday to extend a mandate authorizing sending troops into Syria if needed.

NATO sources have said Turkish collaboration with China on the system could raise questions of compatibility of weaponry and of security. For China, it would be a breakthrough in its bid to become a supplier of advanced weapons.

Bayar said Turkey was not sharing any information on NATO defense systems with China and Turkey was not bound to comply with sanctions placed on CPMIEC as they were not drawn up by the United Nations.

"This is a short list and China is in first place. We are going to invite the Chinese, the offer is on the table and we are going to turn this offer into a contract," Bayar said.

"It is highly likely, a great probability, we will sign the contract with the firm we have chosen in first place."

He said if the deal went ahead most of the production would be carried out in Turkey.

CPMIEC's bid of $3.44 billion had come in significantly lower than rival systems from Russian, U.S. and European firms and below Turkey's estimate of $4 billion, Bayar said.

He said the Franco/Italian Eurosam SAMP/T system was second and Raytheon Co, a U.S. company that builds the Patriot missile, was third. A Russian bid had been eliminated. All losing bids had come in above $4 billion, Bayar said.

Davutoglu said the selection was not politically motivated, and that the Chinese offer had met Turkey's primary demands of price and the ability to place much of the production in Turkey, although he reiterated that the decision was not final.

NOT FINAL

"It is as if people always think, 'this government has an agenda and is making its choice based on this'. No, this was a professional choice. A choice determined by the criteria put forward. But this is not a final choice," Davutoglu said.

"If only Eurosam, or the American and European system makers offered better conditions and we could choose them," he said.

Some defense analysts said they were surprised by Turkey's decision, having expected Raytheon or Eurosam to win the contract, and U.S. government and industry officials were reportedly not informed of the selection beforehand.

"The deal with the Chinese may be designed to put pressure on Raytheon to negotiate a more favorable deal for Turkey, in particular a more liberal technology and know-how transfer and co-production and perhaps on price," said Fadi Hakura, a Turkey expert at London's Chatham House think tank.

Industry experts have said they do not expect Raytheon to offer significant price concessions to secure the deal, given its big backlog of orders from other countries for the Patriot system and other missile defense equipment.

"Turkey's primary aim is to build a local defense manufacturing capacity," Hakura said, noting Turkey had been trying to build a domestic defense industry since the 1980s.

"Still, what the deal does is further poison the atmosphere of worsening relations between Washington and Ankara."

Turkey has long been one of the closest U.S. allies in the Middle Eastern region, bordering during the Cold War on the Soviet Union. The U.S. military exercised great influence over a Turkish military that strongly influenced domestic politics.

Under Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, elected in 2002, the role of the Turkish military in politics has been curbed. Political and military relations between Ankara and Washington, while still close, play a less central role, and this could be reflected in procurement policy.

NATO has said it is up to each country to decide what military capabilities they acquire but that compatibility with other members' systems is important. Davutoglu said members did not need to consider NATO's needs on everything as each country had its own national considerations.

Bayar said a delegation of Turkish industry and air force officials had witnessed test launches from all the firms but that the Chinese had allowed Turkey to pick its own scenario and offered it a tailored demonstration.

"We said we want this kind of a launch, and our delegation watched the launches as if they were the operators. These were real launches," Bayar said.

(Additional reporting by and Ayla Jean Yackley in Istanbul; Editing by Nick Tattersall, Anna Willard and Giles Elgood)

我说的里面有两段很有趣是最后的两段：

“Bayar said a delegation of Turkish industry and air force officials had witnessed test launches from all the firms but that the Chinese had allowed Turkey to pick its own scenario and offered it a tailored demonstration.”

我对这一段已经说过了，在《这里的“tailored”应该就是“相应”的意思》里，我说：

“感觉把“scenario”翻译成“测试方案”也不是很准确，“scenario”就是“情况”或“条件”，毕竟这里说的是防空武器，因此，这里的“scenario”应该指的是空袭的方式。

按照这个，除了老中，其它的只演示他们自己的计划，这就跟卖假药的带着自己的治好了病人现身说法一样了，演示也是白演示，当然成功。

所以，说老中是百发百中和他们的有脱靶都是贬低老中抬举他们了，因为无论是卖什么东西，推销员只给演示他想演示的，顾客建议换个方法演示都不行，这种推销演示根本就是做个样子，根本不是演示，而是强卖，只有老中是在老老实实做生意。”

大家看出来没有，按照这个，除了老中，其它的只演示他们自己的计划，这就跟表演特异功能，比如说表演耳朵认字，只能按照他们的方法表演，买方都不能提一种买方关心的方法，所以，演示也是白演示，当然就是忽悠。

所以，大家可想而知，老中买老美和苏联还有俄国的武器应该也受到过同样的待遇。

这里我也同情一下印度人，谁让阿三不超英赶美搞大跃进非要把中国当目标呢，那就等中国是老大的那一天吧。

最后一段：

“"We said we want this kind of a launch, and our delegation watched the launches as if they were the operators. These were real launches," Bayar said.”

大家看见最后一句没有？

“These were real launches”！！！

很可能就是土鸡飞了几架F-16过来，看看红酒是不是可以玩F-16跟打鸟一样。

而且，看来红酒还很容易操作，而且很可能还让土鸡的人员上手了呢。

唉，这大概就是武器发展的趋势吧，用冷兵器杀人得练几个月几年都不一定有用，热兵器就是二拇指头扣一下的事儿了。

我锻炼去了！

到此为止！