股市崩盘，世界末日到了吗？

股市崩盘，世界末日到了吗？ 

 

汪  翔

（《危机与败局》作者）

 

今天，2010年5月6日，将是美国，甚至是世界，金融历史上值得永远记住的日子。今天股市崩盘，再一次演绎了1987年股市崩盘的伟大壮举。下午2:30到3:00之间，整个股市在没有任何迹象的情况下，突然大幅下跌。道琼斯指数一度下跌倒9,869.62，和当日最高点10,879.76相差1000点有余。标准普最低跌倒1,065.79，和当日最高点1,167.58相差200多点。纳斯达克指数则最低下跌到2,185.75，和当日最高点2,407.79相差200余点，收盘时下跌3.44%。

从个股情况看，谷歌最低跌倒460，百度最低价位为625，收盘价为668。

通常而言被动起伏不应该很大的股票，像PG（开盘价61.91，最低39.37，收盘价在60.75）。IBM和可口可乐（KO）倒是没有表演相同的疯狂。那些有幸守株待兔事先下了固定价位订单的投资者，可能有机会获得跳楼价。而那些期望在疯狂开始之后进入的投资者，要么是你所在的券商服务器太忙，要么是你被排在太后面，还没有轮到你的时候，股价就已经开始大幅反弹。在我注意到谷歌460美元的报价之后，我下的470美元的订单也没有获得任何的结果。很快看到的就是500美元的股价。苹果公司也是一样。

世界到底发生了什么？人们为什么如此惊慌？世界末日到了吗？从交易本身看，是因为几个指数同时触动了自动交易系统的开关。电脑系统开始自动出货。在多数电脑系统同时自动出货的时候，就是拥挤，就是恐慌，就是整个系统的混乱。

 

就投资本身看，有三股力量在左右股价的走向：基本面，供求关系，人类的心态。

基本面决定了股价的长期价值；供求关系决定了正常情况下公司短期的股位；投资者的心态，则起到了放大股价波动幅度的作用。在牛市时，普遍的乐观让估值偏高，熊市时则相反，普遍的悲观让估值偏低，有时候是严重偏低。

除此之外，现在又出现了这个第四者：电脑系统的激活。

对于这个系统的破坏性和不公平性，很快就应该有美国政府的关心了。这里的不公平在于，普通的投资者基本上没有参与的机会。你只能够很被动的在那里被人宰割而无任何自卫或者是反抗的力量。

从世界大局来看，最近欧洲政局不稳，希腊人在造反，造反的理由是需要“满足造反者的条件”，无非就是在经济方面不降低他们这些国民的待遇。按照面前的情况看，只有两种办法能够解决希腊的问题：其一是欧洲国家或者和美国联合出手，在忽略货币的时间价值的情况下，也就是在以不计利息的情况下，大量借款给希腊这位世界的宠儿，让他们继续享受目前的生活水准；其二，就是希腊人自己开始反省和自救，开始改革，开始节俭度日，靠自己的劳动来还清过去几十年奢侈过日子所欠的巨额债务。

希腊人的造反就在于，他们不想做这第二种选择。至于自己欠他国的巨大债务，造反者的回答也很干脆：不知道，不在乎。

相比欧洲共同体而言，希腊的地位就像是美国的一个州。在一个州要破产的时候，美国纳税人有义务来救它吗？更为糟糕的是，和美国州一级不允许搞赤字财政不同，希腊作为一个国家，还可以一直大举借债度日，直到今天这种再也混不下去的时刻为止。

如果欧洲共同体救助这个奢侈的花花公子，那么，下面会不会又更多的国家也想过不劳而获的日子呢？如果他们那样做了，那么，你欧盟是不是还得再救呢？如果救了，那么，对于那些勤勤恳恳过日子的老实欧盟盟民，是不是就是不公平的呢？

看来，欧盟的大麻烦在后面有的是。人性的贪婪就是造孽的根源。

 

影响更大的恐怕还是美元对欧元的持续升值，外加中国最近的政策异动。中国在加大力度抑制经济过热，打压房地产市场的过热。在世界经济已经复苏的大前提下，似乎也是机会难得。但是，人算不如天算。紧靠美元的人民币在美元对欧元持续贬值的时代，借机也跟着贬值。中国企业得以有机会大量出口欧洲。现在，欧元对美元大幅贬值，挂靠美元的人民币实际上也在跟着大幅升值。害怕人民币升值打击国内已经脆弱的出口业的中国学者，曾经有人计算过，如果人民币升值一个百分点，中国企业的利润会下滑多少个十位百分点的“学者”，不知道这时候是不是已经计算过，人民币接近20%的对欧元升值，实际上到底意味着什么？

如果欧元对美元继续贬值，带来的可能就是美国经济复苏的困难了。在欧洲经济已经出现困境的情况下，再拖累美国经济，同时绑架中国经济，结果可想而知。这才是为什么，世界股市突然大幅跳水的原因吧。中国经济的健康，还真的让不少的人在牵挂着呢。这种感觉，可比二十年前自己来美国时，没有人在乎中国人在怎么样过日子要强不少。这一次，人们和当时雷曼破产对市场的冲击相比。如果这种比较是正确的，那么，后续是不是就是新一轮的经济危机呢？我自己觉得，可能性比较小。但是，又不能不防。世界之事，有太多的偶然性，事后再来回顾，那其中的必然性已经救不了我们了。

作为投资者，应该怎么办呢？

这种时候，小心建仓和进行投资对象的适度调整，可能是一件值得做的事情。期望看准底部，打赌大赚，估计是一件风险很大的事情。赌博这种事，在以身家性命为赌注的情况下，十次错了一次，可能就是前功尽弃，一无所有。美国公司有很多在目前的价位不算高。长期而言还是会有不错的投资回报结果，但是，如果你的资金是三五年需要使用的，恐怕也还是得保守一点为好。

 

更多介绍和分析，参阅我的新浪博客：

http://www.blog.sina.com.cn/wangxiangusa

 

2010年5月6日星期四股指变化图

 

 

 

 

附录：Look out below!

The market sees a major plunge, aided in part by computer programs designed to protect investors.

 Jim J. Jubak on Thursday, May 6, 2010 4:18 PM

 

Wow! Or, maybe better, Yeeouch!

 

In the last hour, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been down 1,000 points as it fell and kept on falling. Or just 350 points down as it rallied off the bottom.

 

It closed near 10,500, off about 350, or a bit more than 3%.

 

My best guess on what's happening is that the selling of the last two days and the first part of today finally took prices on the major indexes low enough to trigger massive program trading.

 

In other words, as happened in the 1987 crash, computer programs designed to protect investors from massive losses by selling when prices got too low went into action and in selling created exactly the losses they were designed to prevent.

 

I'm using program trading here in the loosest sense for computerized trading programs designed to kick in at preset market conditions. I don't know -- and we won't know until someone takes apart the numbers after the close today -- whether the selling was triggered by the price of the actual indexes or by prices in the futures or options market.

 

As you'd expect on a day like today, gold has rallied -- back above $1,200 an ounce -- and safe-haven buying has taken prices of US Treasuries up and the yield on the ten-year note down as low as 3.33%, the lowest since December 2009.

 

Since, in my opinion, technical levels explain the huge plunge that took the Dow down 1,000 points or so (it's not clear what real stock prices were during the heaviest trading, since exchanges fell well behind on executing orders), let's look at some of the technical levels that might explain the selling.

 

Wednesday's decline left the Dow at 10,868. That was just above the Jan. 19 high at 10,725. Technical analysts that I read overnight were saying that the market was getting to a crucial test of the January high, but as long as the index closed above that level, investors were looking at a relatively minor correction in a trend that still pointed upwards.

 

But the gradual decline on Thursday took the index closer and closer to that key test at 10,725. At 1:38 p.m. ET the Dow broke below the Jan. 19 high, and the selling began to accelerate. By 2:30 the index was down to 10,596.And then all hell broke loose.

 

Selling fed on selling, and by 2:46 p.m. -- just a little over an hour after the index broke below the Jan. 19 high of 10,725 -- the Dow Industrials were down to 9,873.

 

Wednesday night, technical analysts had been pointing to the Feb. 8 low at 9,908 as the next test below the January high. Well, the index did get slightly below the February low -- by 35 points, to 9,873 -- but that marked the end of the free fall and the beginning of a rally that took the index back to a loss of around 350 points by 4 p.m.

 

Technical markers taketh away and then they giveth. At least for a few hours today.

 

Maybe technical levels of stock indexes did turn a bad day for stocks into a heart-in-your-mouth plunge, but stocks prices aren’t the only thing that might have triggered today’s 700-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 2:30 to 2:46 p.m. ET.

There’s a good chance that the plunging euro played a part. The euro was down 1.5% against the dollar by 3:00 p.m. (roughly). That’s a drop of a full 2 cents and a bit more. That’s a big move since this market usually marks its gains and losses in the hundredths of a cent.

The euro’s plunge against the yen was even bigger, a huge 5.3% drop.

A 5% move in the currency market is almost a sure sign that somebody big has started to unwind, probably in hurry, a big, a big bet on the direction of currencies—and that other big players have followed suit.

One possibility that comes to mind is that someone was betting on the direction of the euro and using stocks or yen to hedge the risk. And when the euro went down to $1.2612 today that someone decided to unwind that hedge.

And it was the unwinding of that hedge that set the panic in motion.

A few minutes ago CNBC reported a trading floor rumor that the drop was a result of someone entering a trade in billions instead of millions. Could be.

But while the error may have started the ball rolling, it wouldn’t have turned into an avalanche without lots and lots of money blindly following price moves rather than paying attention to anything fundamental in the market.

If you think of stocks as interchangeable lottery tickets—and much of Wall Street does—this is the kind of trading day that results.