谷歌是不是已经夕阳西下了？

谷歌是不是已经夕阳西下了？

 

这段时间，和直上云霄的百度股价相比，是谷歌股价的喋喋不休。

谷歌到底怎么哪？难道中国之战的败北，就成为谷歌的滑铁卢不成？不是说，在美国和欧洲这些主战场一直战无不胜的谷歌，怎么又突然爆出了主阵地被“小字辈”雅虎夺走和鲸吞的消息了？

这年头，看来谷歌同志是坏消息连连。如果当初你相信华尔街大鳄的建议，在620美元的时候买谷歌，同时在那个价位卖空当时股价为420美元（相当于现在分股之后的42美元）的百度，那么，今天在你看到百度75美元有余（相当于分股前的750多美元）和505美元的百度，就只有流泪的份了。

再者，即使在今天，标准普还是在强力推荐（五星）谷歌，勉强推荐（三星）百度。这种推荐和股市股价走向的不一致性，对于投资者的你，又应该怎么样理解呢？标准普是不是一个草包？

我觉得不是。标准普是在按照价值投资理念进行推荐，基于的主要还是基础分析方法。而基础分析看重的是长期的前景，并且是基于当前的市场预期来进行的。而当前的市场预期又是基于已经获得的信息进行的。当这些前提条件发生变化的时候，你也得自己及时调整自己的投资布局。

这样一来，就有可能出现一个问题：市场预期的偏高和偏低。看来，市场对于百度的估计有点偏低，对于谷歌的有点偏高。

一直看好，或者说自己一直以为自己能够做好，的手机这一块，似乎也不是很理想，想撼动苹果公司的结果，看来也是铩羽而归。谷歌低估了中国政府的力量，在中国的抗衡看来是螳臂当车，自不量力。对于苹果，以为是下一个雅虎。当初，这位来自俄国的家伙看到“来自”中国的雅虎好欺负之后，误解了中国人的不“一样性”。在欺负雅虎得逞，欺负微软也战绩累累之后，才发现自己做了一个“天下无对手”的误判。

在商业市场，看来还是谦虚一点为好，否则，几年之后的谷歌，很可能就是下一个王安公司，那样可就惨了。

 

更多介绍和分析，参阅我的新浪博客：http://www.blog.sina.com.cn/wangxiangusa

 

附录：Yahoo Gains Search Share But Data Clouded By Changes

12:58 PM ET 5/11/10 | Dow Jones

By Scott Morrison

SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--Yahoo Inc.'s (YHOO) search market share rose for the second straight month, but analysts were quick to caution the Internet company's gains were clouded by new features recently introduced on its Web pages.

Yahoo, which has struggled to halt a long decline in U.S. search share, saw its share jump to 17.7% in April from 16.9% the previous month, according research group comScore. Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Bing inched up to 11.8% from 11.7%, while Google Inc.'s (GOOG) U.S. search share slipped to 64.4% from 65.1% in March.

Barclays Capital analyst Doug Anmuth cautioned against reading too much into the results because they were based on "very cloudy data" stemming from changes introduced at Yahoo.

The addition of Yahoo News slideshows, which are counted as search queries, contributed about 158 million incremental searches in April over March. Changes to Yahoo Finance, which enabled comScore to track additional search activity, boosted queries by 50 million over the previous month.

"We believe these newer queries are generally of lower overall quality than traditional queries in search boxes or within toolbars and likely have different user intent," said Anmuth in a note.

Yahoo executives last month predicted the company's search share would "trend up" during the second quarter, ending a sharp slide that began early last year. But analysts noted that after backing out Yahoo's changes, the company's search share was largely unchanged from the previous month.

"We think most investors will look through the reported number and conclude that YHOO's is probably just maintaining share of what really counts: monetizable searches," wrote Broadpoint Amtech Analyst Ben Schachter in a note.

Yahoo is working to implement a 10-year pact under which Microsoft's Bing will power searches on Yahoo's Web properties. The revenue-sharing partnership is aimed at challenging Google's dominance of the online-search market.

Yahoo's search share first showed signs of stabilizing in March when it rose to 16.9% from 16.8% in February, the first increase since Microsoft launched its revamped Bing search engine last year. The two companies' combined share in the search market has remained relatively stable since Bing's launch, while Google's share has remained at or near 65%.

Shares in Yahoo were up 0.6% at $16.43 in midday trading.

-By Scott Morrison; Dow Jones Newswires; 415-765-6118; [e-mail]

附录：Sprint opts out of Google's Nexus One

5:48 PM ET 5/10/10 | Marketwatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sprint Nextel Corp. has decided not to sell Google Inc.'s flagship Nexus One mobile phone, becoming the second U.S. carrier to opt out of the highly touted device in recent weeks.

Sprint (S) had announced in March that it planned to make the Nexus One available for use on its network, touting it as "a powerful device that belongs on a powerful network."

However, on Monday Sprint spokeswoman Michelle Leff Mermelstein said that, "We have made the decision to not take Nexus One into our lineup."

Google's (GOOG) model for its Android mobile operating system is based on having a vast range of devices running on the software.

However, the release of the Nexus One in January was a highly publicized event, as the sleek device was widely seen as a potential rival to Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) popular iPhone, which is available exclusively in the U.S. on the network of AT&T Inc. (T)

Sprint's Leff Mermelstein said that instead of the Nexus One, the network has now opted to include the Android-based HTC Evo 4G, from Nexus One-maker HTC Corp. (HTCC.Y)

The spokeswoman called the Evo 4G "a multimedia powerhouse."

Google had originally been expected to make the Nexus One available on a number of different networks, including T-Mobile, Verizon Wireless (VZ) and Sprint.

However, Google disclosed last month that the Nexus One would not become available on Verizon, instead promoting the use of the Android-based Incredible for use on the U.S.'s most popular network. < Nexus the and Verizon about story related See LOCATION="INTERNAL" URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nexus-one-wont-be-out-on-verizon-google-says-2010-04-26">

The Nexus One Web site currently only promotes the use of phone on T-Mobile's network.

A Google spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.