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TIPS: 如何度过房产泡沫破碎的灾难

(2006-10-31 10:49:54) 下一个
he question regarding soft or hard landings with respect to ournations housing "bubble" is about to get answered, with a touch downthat will evolve into a very hard landing. This hard landing may put atrisk the entire economy. The two largest culprits arehomebuilders/mortgage firms that forced real estate appraisers to comeup with inflated valuations and the second culprit are teaser rate,adjustable rate mortgage products that are now starting to adjustbeyond many homeowners ability to make the payment. The victims are orwill be our nation's homeowners, our nation's pension funds andultimately the U.S. Taxpayer in a Katrina type bail out.


(PRWEB) September 6, 2006 -- The question regarding a national realestate bubble, and or a hard or soft landing according to the Presidentof The National Mortgage Complaint Center/Homeowners Consumer Center"is about to get answered." Mr. Thomas Martin the President of thisgroup has indicated that the "bubble is going to be more like a nucleardetonation with consequences getting progressively worse, with no quickfix." He calls it "the Hurricane Katrina of real estate, becauseeveryone knew it was coming and no one prepared for what it would, orcould do."

Lagging home sales and home price reductions are but oneindicator, ever increasing foreclosures are the second.The reality isthat with real estate valuations coming back to earth many homeownershave no equity left in their homes or actually owe more than their homeis worth.
"Lagging home sales and home price reductions are but one indicator,ever increasing foreclosures are the second.The reality is that withreal estate valuations coming back to earth many homeowners have noequity left in their homes or actually owe more than their home isworth." So how did this happen? Martin says the answer can be summed upin one word, "Greed."

For over two years the National Mortgage Complaint Center has beenexpressing concern/panic over regional or national homebuilders forcinglocal real estate appraisers to come up with inflated or over-valuedreal estate valuations. The net result is, as builders inflated theprice of their new homes, existing homeowners inflated theirs. Thispractice goes back to about 1998. It was a game of musical chairs.According to Martin,"at some point the music would stop and someonewould get left without a chair. In this instance it will be thehomeowners who recently purchased a home and or the pension funds whothought they were buying a real estate portfolio worth 100%. In realitynew mortgage backed securities might only be worth 90% or 85%.Ultimately it will be the taxpayer; as this real estate bubble burstwill call for another massive federal bail-out just like the Savings& Loan Bail Out of the late 1980s & early 1990s."

The other culprit according to Martin is a "greedy mortgage industrycombined with a Fannie Mae, Senate & House Banking Committee allasleep at the switch with respect to ridiculous mortgage products suchas adjustable rate mortgages (ARM's) with start rates as low as 1%. Theproblem is, the borrower did not understand that the rates wouldincrease, or these mortgage products allowed borrowers to qualify for amortgage they could never other wise afford. At some point the borrowerrealizes they cannot make the payments or they owe more on the homethan it is actually worth, and they walk away from the house or theyface foreclosure." According to Martin, "the combination ofblackmailing real estate appraisers into inflated valuations combinedwith insane mortgage products creates the perfect storm for a realestate disaster that could be our nations most costly real estate meltdown in history."

The National Mortgage Complaint Center & its partner The HomeownersConsumer Center suggest homeowners do the following to weather the 2006real estate bubble burst.

1. Don't sell right now if you don't have to. If you do have to sell,do it now, even if you have to reduce your price. The national or someregional markets may ultimately correct to 10%-20% less than currentmarket valuations, especially in formerly hot markets like California,Arizona, Nevada, Washington DC Metro, New York, Florida and theCarolina's. It may take 5 to 7 years for these markets to recover to2005 price levels.

2. If you are in a mortgage that has features that call for paymentincreases or adjustments within the next two years, see if your currentlender will allow you to convert to a fixed rate product. If not callthe National Mortgage Complaint CenterHttp://NationalMortgageComplaintCenter.Com to see what your optionsmight be. The Complaint Centers toll free number is 866-714-6466.

3. Consumers should not fall for some advertising gimmick from amortgage firm/bank or homebuilder offering a 1% start rate on amortgage or 100% financing. Why would anyone want 100% financing in anationwide real estate market that could see values decline 10% to 15%+in the next two years? Put another way "why purchase something that atleast in the short run may not retain its value"?

4. If you are a potential real estate buyer the Homeowners ConsumerCenter ( Http://HomeownersConsumerCenter.Com ) & the NationalMortgage Complaint Center strongly suggest you wait to see how far realestate values go down in your area before you purchase a home orinvestment property.

5. While real estate market prices may decline, the rental marketshould stay intact. Homeowners unable to sell their existing propertyshould consider renting their property until the real estate marketbegins to recover. This may be the best option for many homeowners toactually hold onto their property.

For Mortgage Lenders, Mortgage Bankers & Homebuilders the National Mortgage Complaint Center Suggests; Clean Up Your Act.

The mortgage process should be simple and transparent with consumerfriendly approaches to fees; par interest rates, yield spreads andpre-payment penalties, etc. Martin envisions a future, with flat fee-A-type mortgages, and flat fee title insurance. In other words the samething that happened to the stock market with respect to flat fee stocktrades is about to happen to the mortgage and title industry. "Its nolonger a question of if, at this point, it's just a question of whofigures it out first and takes over the mortgage/title industries".

The echo generation is now in high school or college (the largestgeneration of possible homeowners in our nations history). Within fourto six years they will become potential home buyers or renters. By thistime, we believe the market will have corrected and appreciation willbegin again. By then it is the hope of the Homeowners Consumer Centerthat there will be much more conservative approaches to real estatevaluations and deceptive mortgage products/fees will have been outlawed.
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