晨讀：Scott Bessent calls Moody’s a ‘lagging indicator’

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/18/scott-bessent-calls-moodys-a-lagging-indicator-after-us-credit-downgrade.html

I think that Moodys is a lagging indicator, Bessent said Sunday. I think thats what everyone thinks of credit agencies.－－並沒有反映川總領導下蒸蒸日上的大好形勢

Just like Sean Duffy said with our air traffic control system, we didnt get here in the past 100 days, Bessent continued, referring to the transportation secretary. Its the Biden administration and the spending that we have seen over the past four years.－－並沒有否認財政的巨大與評級下調的合理性，Bessent還是保持了財經專家的基本質素與信譽，這在關稅貿易戰中也體現出來。當然歸究於拜登政府是從政的標准動作，也不是沒有道理。

If we go back to your initial question on the Moodys downgrade, who cares? Qatar doesnt. Saudi doesnt. UAE doesnt, he said. Theyre all pushing money in.－－downplay評級下調的嚴重性，你看在川總的領導下大錢湧進，沒事，not a big deal。

問題是三大評級公司全部調降美國政府評級，借債成本上升，是一個長期經濟增長抑制變量，並不會在一兩年內調升回來。無論政府、公司的債券利率都會上升，使經濟減速。

下面是ChatGPT的一個快速評估：

If U.S. Treasury yields rise by 100 basis points (1%), heres the estimated economic impact:

• Additional annual interest cost: $340 billion
• New total annual interest payments: $1.24 trillion
• Interest payments as a % of GDP: 4.43%