Tentative Prediction on TSLA

1. TSLA will reach a peak of around $600 x 115% = $690 before its addition to S&P500;

2. The Peak for TSLA stock price will be reached roughly on 12/15/2020 - 12/16/2020;

3. About 3 months later, right around 02/16/2021, TSLA stock should go above $1000;

After reaching the ATH around 02/16/2021, there will be a big price adjustment of TSLA stock, this will likely coincide with the EV bubbles popping or some other bad news on TSLA. The new TSLA stock price bottom will be around $700.

Note: The above prediction is based on pure speculation. Please take it with a grain of salt. YMYD

 

[dennis_sy]

A Case Study - Facebook Addition to S&P500

It was announced on 12/11/2013, the addition happened on 12/20/2013.

FB's historical stock data: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/FB/facebook/stock-price-history

Observation:

1. From 12/11/2013, to 12/20/2013, FB stock price went from $48 to $56, about 17% increase;

2. About 2 days before the addition, FB stock peaked at ~$56;

3. There was ~5% drop in FB stock price from 12/18/2013 to 12/20/2013;

4. The biggest jump ($55 to $58) happened on 12/23/2013, the next Monday after FB's addition;

5. Before 2013 ends, right after Christmas, there was a big selloff, FB stock price tanked from $58 to $53;

6. From 12/11/2013, exactly 3 months later, FB's stock price reached an all-time-high of $71;

7. FB's stock price dropped again from $71 to $54, beginning at 03/12/2014, ending at 04/07/2014;

TSLA's case would be more dramatical, given its size, and the liquidity available on the market in 2020. One thing to keep in mind, after TSLA's addition to S&P500, whatever price target TSLA will reach on 12/21/2020, that price will be the new bottom. YMYD