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Analysis of economic development: implications for the world power balance

CCTV lacks of economic advisers

(2019-09-22 16:56:37) 下一个

CCTV lacks of economic advisers or

来源:  于 2019-09-22 14:03:47 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 113 次 (2037 bytes)
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if yes, they are misleading.

Based on a simple eatimation, the China GDP annually increased at 10% during the period of 1949 to 1979 using a fixed value of RMB in 1952. The China 1979 GDP must have at least been 3.2 trillion RMB, or ~4000 RMB per captipa. You may argue that this figure was much higher than the officially number, but my arguement is that the official number was much undercounted! 

In 1979, China GDP per capita should be about US $1200 if compared with the US dollar! At that time, the official exchange rate was ~ 3 China Yuan or RMB equaled to 1 US dollar (note: the value of RMB was also undercounted at time! Reasonally, it was 1.5, leading to that China 1979 GDP per capita was $2400). The China leader Deng Xiaoping wanted that China GDP per capita would reach $1000 in 2000, which clearly suggested that he had underestimated the real China economic scale at the time. Obviously, Mr Deng was also misled by the so-called economists. The actual China economic scale in 1979 could be ten times bigger than the official estimate! 

On average, China GDP annual growth rate has been 8.5% since 1980 till 2019, regardless inflation and RMB depreciation, slower than the average rate of 10% during 1949 to 1979. Thus, my prediction is that China 2019 GDP will be 34 trillion RBM at the fixed value of 1952, or 97 trillion RMB when a combination  (~4%) of inflation and RBM depreciation is considered. If corrected, the GDP growth rate of China in 2019 is predicted to be 6.5%.

If using exchange rate of 7 RMB equals to 1 US$, then the China 2019 GDP would be ~$14 trillion, or GDP per capita $10000. Again, this must be wrong, because the value of RMB is much undercounted! So, what would be the actual rate? The answer may shock most of you, 2 RMB = 1 US$; then, China 2019 GDP would be $48.5 trillion, i.e. China GDP per capita in 2019 shall be $34600! (Note: As a comparison, the US GDP per capita in 2019 will be ~$61500).


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