Here is the overlapped US CPI vs. interest rate 1960-2022

FED's interest rate curve is way behind the CPI now, which is almost unprecedent. That is the exact reason  why we should be more cautious about the recession crisis this time. When did the similar things happened last time in history? It is 1910s . What happens in 1910s? A worldwide pandemic and World War I.  Let us hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. YMYD.