值得关注的当铺股(pawn shop)：CSH, EZPW, FCFS

(7/3/2006) Last Friday (6/30/2006), EZPW raised its guidance by quite a lot. 理由？高金价。当铺现在出售的都是至少2-4个月前进的金银首饰（当铺的抵押时间是2-4月），所以金价的上升会大大地促进这些当铺公司的利润。所以，我相信，其它两个当铺股CSH, FCFS也会很快调高它们的利润。I think it is a good trade to buy these stocks (CSH, FCFS) now and sell them when they announce their earnings. EZPW今天涨了12%。

(7/10/2006)正如我所预期的那样，今天CSH调高了它的利润，下一个该轮到FCFS调高它的利润了。我准备今天卖掉CSH。在上周下跌的市场中，CSH也跟着下跌，它的表现比我预期的差。

(7/11/2006)

Now the only question is whether FCFS will raise its guidance. To get an hint, I am trying to analyze last quarter's performances among these companies.

Last quarter gross margin vs last year:

CSh	67.6%	66.9%	0.7%
EZPW	64.1%	62.1%	2.1%
FCFS	67.0%	65.4%	1.6%

(Comment: EZPW has the greatest improvement in terms of gross margin and CSH has the least improvement. However, EZPW's gross margin still the worst among three companies)

Last quarter net revenue increasement (2nd column), revenue increasement (3rd Column)and number of stores increasement (last column)

	Net Revenue Increase	Revenue Increase	# of Stores Increase
CSH	13.2%	12.2%	2.3%
EZPW	29.1%	25.1%	15.3%
FCFS	21.3%	18.5%	17.2%

(Comment: EZPW has the greatest improvement last quarter, followed by FCFS)

The same store growth rate for FCFS is 13% for this quarter. This statistics is not available for CSH or EZPW. But obviously CSH's same store growth rate will be less than 13% because its overall revenue growth is only 12.2%. It is most likely that EZPW's same store growth rate will be better than FCFS because EZPW has achieved a higher revenue growth rate with less store additions.

Last quarter net profit margin (net income/revenue) vs last year

	Net Profit Margin (Q1 2006)	Net Profit Margin (Q1 2005)	Margin Improvement
CSH	9.5%	8.2%	1.3%
EZPW	9.8%	6.3%	3.5%
FCFS	13.7%	12.9%	0.9%

(Comment: EZPW has the greatest improvement and FCFS has the least improvement, but FCFS is still the best in terms of profit margin)

Last quarter net profit margin2 (net income/net revenue) vs last year

	Net Income/Net Revenue (Q1 2006)	Net Income/Net Revenue (Q1 2005)	Improvement
CSH	14.0%	12.3%	1.7%
EZPW	15.3%	10.1%	5.2%
FCFS	20.4%	19.7%	0.7%

(Comment: EZPW has the greatest improvement, but FCFS is still the best in terms of profit margin)

Net Revenue Components Table:

	Merchandise Sales Gross Profit	Pawn Service Charges	Payday Loan
CSH	29%	34%	37%
EZPW	48%	41%	11%
FCFS	31%	31%	38%

(Comment: Both merchandise sales and pawn service charges will be affected by gold market price. Gold scrapping comprised approximately 20% of merchandise sales. Therefore, EZPW has the greatest exposure to the gold spot price and CSH, FCFS have approximately the same exposure)

Conclusion: Both EZPW and CSH have raised their guidances this quarter. Overall, EZPW has the largest improvement for the past half year and FCFS's  improvement is about between EZPW and CSH. Therefore I believe that FCFS will raise its guidance as well.

大千和股飞原帖：
http://goofiz.com/forums/thread/1151365.aspx
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=479487
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=476102