儿童不宜谈炒股
A professional stock trader
The CBOE equity-only put/call ratio is 0.8 today (05/17/2006). There has been a study for this ratio from 10/01/1985 to 12/31/1998. There have only been 12 times that the daily equity-only put/call ratio has hit 0.75 or higher during this period. Excluding multiple signals from this indicator that occurred within one month of each other leaves you with only six major signals. The following shows results for the S&P and Nasdaq one year after these signals. These results are very impressive and have provided long-term investors excellent entry points. Very impressive returns, most notably in the Nasdaq!
12/03/87 20.3% (S&P) 23.2%(Nasdaq)
10/10/90 26.3%(S&P) 54.9%(Nasdaq)
01/08/91 33.2%(S&P) 65.1%(Nasdaq)
10/05/94 28.3%(S&P) 37.7%(Nasdaq)
07/15/96 45.1%(S&P) 40.6%(Nasdaq)
12/19/97 25.5%(S&P) 36.8%(Nasdaq)
In the past, this indicator was valuable for short term traders as well. Once it was triggered, the S&P has been within 2% of its ultimate low and the Nasdaq within 4% of its ultimate low (on a close basis) most of the time. However, this indicator is more reliable for long term investors than for short term traders.
