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杰弗里·D·萨克斯访谈帕斯卡尔·洛塔兹
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_oRDTJRvtE&ab_channel=NeutralityStudies
洛塔兹教授于2025年6月10日的总结
为战争而战
乌克兰战争爆发三年后，西方陷入了自私自利的妄想和否认的怪圈。
最初的战略误判已演变成一场史无前例的地缘政治灾难——灾难的不仅是俄罗斯，而是整个西方世界。首当其冲的便是欧盟，如今，欧盟看起来比俄罗斯在战争中的任何时候都更加不稳定，内部也更加裂痕累累。这不仅是因为误判，更是因为拒绝承认失败，欧盟的恶棍们即使在经历了17项（！！）制裁方案后，仍然没有吸取任何教训。在最近的一次中立研究讲座中，经济学家兼资深政策顾问杰弗里·萨克斯将揭穿那些让这场战争持续下去的叙事，并揭露西方外交政策思维中的深层裂痕。
一场本不该发生的战争
我们必须像念咒语一样反复强调：这场战争本可以避免。数十年来，外交官、学者，甚至他们自己的情报官员都曾警告美国及其北约盟友，称这种扩张将引发与俄罗斯的对抗，但美国及其北约盟友却不顾这些警告，继续向东推进。这些警告被置之不理。《明斯克协议》曾是通往和平的一条可能途径，却从未得到认真履行。相反，西方国家并非将乌克兰视为一个主权行为体，而是将其视为遏制莫斯科的更广泛行动中的一枚棋子。
其结果是乌克兰持续遭受灾难，西方陷入战略僵局。公众被灌输了一种幻想——俄罗斯经济将崩溃，普京将下台，乌克兰将在北约的支持下取得胜利。然而，这一切都没有发生。俄罗斯的经济只是简单地适应了（他们怎么敢不死心塌地？！），政治领导层依然完好无损，而乌克兰正面临毁灭。然而，这种叙事仍在继续，被智库、媒体和那些对战争投入太多却不愿承认自己犯错的职业官僚所推动。
欧洲的战略破产
欧洲领导人非但没有重新调整策略，反而加倍下注，牺牲自身的经济和外交利益，以维持大西洋彼岸指使的战争态势。欧盟完全没有独立思考的能力。在乌克兰整整一代人被消灭的同时，欧盟只是不断地运送武器，鹦鹉学舌般地重复着关于团结和价值观的口号。欧洲人非但没有承认这场战争必须在谈判桌上解决，反而仍在推动更多同样失败的军事和经济升级，即便他们的跨大西洋庇护者显然已经离开了。
与此同时，欧洲在国内的誓言与日俱增。德国工业竞争力正在下降。能源成本飙升。美国从液化天然气出口和武器销售中获利，而其欧洲盟友却不得不为此买单。所有这一切都源于一种更深层次的担忧：承认乌克兰危机的失败将暴露欧盟外交政策的空洞，并粉碎西方凝聚力的幻象。
媒体推动者
这一切中最阴险的因素之一就是媒体。西方媒体非但没有挑战权力，反而充当了国家叙事的放大器——无视令人不快的事实，压制异议，并将外交行为描绘成背叛。其结果是公众被系统性地误导。和平虽然可能实现，却成了一个讳莫如深的词。
这种信息控制反映了自由民主国家更广泛的转变，如今，发动战争的借口是令人内疚的、道德上值得怀疑的讨伐。乌克兰战争已然沦为炫耀美德的舞台，细微的差别被摈弃，任何呼吁谈判的人都被贴上了克里姆林宫傀儡的标签。萨克斯的这番话一针见血：“战争持续的时间越长，代价就越大，不仅是乌克兰，还有欧洲的自主权以及西方作为全球参与者的信誉。”
活在昔日荣耀中
如果说这场战争暴露了什么，那就是西方在适应多极世界方面根深蒂固的无能。西方领导层固守着自己无可争议的主导地位，依然深陷于后冷战时代的妄想之中，承认失败意味着在快速变化的全球秩序中直面自身地位的下降。他们不愿面对现实，而是选择回避——牺牲地区和平来维护自身的内心平静。因此，战争旷日持久，并非为了胜利，也并非为了价值观，而是为了避免一个衰落的帝国醒来后蒙受耻辱。
Jeffrey D. Sachs interview with Pascal Lottaz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?
Professor Lottaz's summary on June 10, 2025
War for War's Sake
Three years into the Ukraine War, the West is stuck in a loop of self-serving delusion and denial.
What began as a strategic miscalculation has turned into a geopolitical disaster of epic proportions—not for Russia but for the Collective West. First among them is the European Union, which, by now, looks more unstable and riddled with internal fractures than Russia did at any point in the war. Fueled not just by misjudgment, but by a refusal to admit failure, the EU kakistocrats haven’t learned a thing, even after 17 (!!) sanction packages. In a recent Neutrality Studies talk, economist and veteran policy advisor Jeffrey Sachs is here to dismantle the narratives that keep this war alive and lay bare the deep fractures in Western foreign policy thinking.
A War that should have never happened
We must repeat this like a mantra: This war was avoidable. The US and its NATO allies pushed eastward despite decades of warnings—from diplomats, scholars, and even their own intelligence officials—that such expansion would trigger confrontation with Russia. Those warnings were ignored. The Minsk Agreements, once a possible path to peace, were never honoured in good faith. Instead, the West treated Ukraine not as a sovereign actor, but as a pawn in a broader campaign to contain Moscow.
What resulted is this ongoing catastrophe for Ukraine and a strategic deadlock for the West. The public was sold a fantasy—that Russia’s economy would collapse, Putin would fall, and Ukraine would triumph with NATO’s backing. None of that happened. Russia’s economy simply adapted (how dare they not drop-dead?!), the political leadership remains intact, and Ukraine is facing devastation. Yet the narrative continues, pushed by think tanks, media outlets, and career bureaucrats too invested in the war to admit they got it wrong.
Europe's Strategic Bankruptcy
Rather than recalibrate, European leaders have doubled down, sacrificing their own economic and diplomatic interests to maintain a war posture that was dictated from across the Atlantic. The EU has utterly failed to think for itself. The block just keeps sending weapons and parroting slogans about unity and values, while an entire generation in Ukraine is being wiped out. And instead of admitting that this war must be solved at the negotiating table, it’s the Europeans who are still pushing for ever more of the same failed military and economic escalation, even while their Trans-Atlantic Patron has clearly already moved on.
In the meantime, Europe’s domestic vows are mounting by the day. German industry is bleeding competitiveness. Energy costs are surging. And while the U.S. reaps profits from LNG exports and arms sales, its European allies are left holding the bill. And all of that because of a deeper fear: that admitting failure in Ukraine would expose the hollowness of EU foreign policy and shatter the illusion of Western coherence.
Media Enablers
One of the most insidious elements in all of this is the media. Far from challenging power, Western outlets have served as amplifiers of states’ narratives—ignoring inconvenient facts, silencing dissenting voices, and framing diplomacy as betrayal. The result is a public that’s been systematically misinformed. Peace, while possible, has become a hush-hush word.
This information control reflects a broader shift in liberal democracies, where war-making is now justified with guilt-tripping and questionable moral crusades. The Ukraine war has become a theatre of virtue-signalling, where nuances are banished, and anyone calling for negotiation is labeled a puppet of the Kremlin. Sachs got it absolutely right when he says that “The longer this continues, the more the costs will rise, not just for Ukraine, but for Europe’s autonomy and the credibility of the West as a global actor.”
Living in Past Glory
If this war has exposed anything, it’s the West’s deep inability to adapt to a multipolar world. Clinging to the illusion of unchallenged dominance, Western leadership remains trapped in a post-Cold War delusion, where admitting failure would mean confronting their diminished place in a rapidly shifting global order. Rather than face that reality, they’ve chosen avoidance—sacrificing regional peace to preserve their own peace of mind. And so the war drags on, not for victory, not for values, but to spare a fading empire the humiliation of waking up.
https://open.substack.com/pub/
