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新加坡新任总理黄循财从上任第一天起就面临挑战
https://www.cfr.org/blog/singapores-new-prime-minister-lawrence-wong-faces-challenges-day-one
作者：Joshua Kurlantzick，2024年4月25日
执政二十年后，新加坡总理李显龙将把接力棒移交给执政党选定的继任者，而继任者将面临复杂的地缘政治环境以及党在国内领导地位日益严峻的挑战。 2022年10月25日，新加坡副总理兼财政部长黄循财在第十五届新加坡国际能源周上发表新加坡能源演讲。2022年10月25日，新加坡副总理兼财政部长黄循财在第十五届新加坡国际能源周上发表新加坡能源演讲。Isabel Kua/路透社
在位约二十年后，新加坡总理李显龙宣布将卸任，为财政部长兼副总理黄循财将于5月15日就任下一任总理，并带领长期执政的人民行动党（PAP）参加下届大选铺平了道路。
黄循财上任时具备诸多优势。人民行动党已用两年时间将他培养成其所谓的“第四代”政党领导人的核心人物，从而也将带领新加坡走向未来。尽管反对党在议会中的势力日益壮大，但人民行动党几乎肯定会在下届选举中获胜。与其他一些争夺李显龙继任的候选人相比，黄之锋是一位更具政治天赋的政治家。例如，正如李显龙在宣布这一变化和黄之锋晋升的Facebook帖子中所述，他在新冠疫情期间展现了领导才能。与一些人民行动党成员不同，黄之锋担任过多个职位和工作，这使他能够更深入地了解新加坡社会的更多领域，以及这个城市国家目前面临的诸多国内和地区问题。
李显龙就任时并非风平浪静——当时反恐战争正如火如荼地进行，新加坡既是东南亚武装分子的恐怖主义目标，也是美国在全球战争中的重要盟友——而黄之锋就任时，这个城市国家正面临着更广泛的挑战。在国内，人民行动党虽然仍然是主导力量，但现在面临着一个更有组织的政治反对派，这些反对派不再能轻易地被边缘化为一个不代表新加坡社会的小群体。反对党可能会在下届选举中增加议席数量，从而在议会中拥有更多空间来监督和批评人民行动党。
近年来，执政党面临着不同寻常的内部斗争，这损害了其一贯清廉的形象，其中包括对（现已成为前任）高级部长易华仁（S. Iswaran）首次提起腐败指控。他已被指控35项与贿赂和腐败相关的罪名（且罪名还在增加），检方指控他收受了一位马来西亚大亨兼开发商以及另一名承包商的一系列礼物。他的起诉紧随人民行动党内部其他问题之后，反对党肯定会在下届大选前夕强调这些问题。其中包括去年发生的一起小型丑闻，两名人民行动党议员因婚外情辞职。此外，据半岛电视台报道，大约在同一时间，“两名政府高级部长因租赁国有殖民时期的洋房而受到公开审查。调查并未发现任何不当行为的证据，但这引发一些人质疑，鉴于合同是通过招标程序授予的，部长们如何能够租赁这些房产。”
与此同时，新加坡一直试图在与中国的经济关系和与美国保持密切安全伙伴关系的愿望之间寻找平衡，如今，与李光耀担任总理初期相比，这种平衡更加难以实现。中国在该地区的经济主导地位远超以往。随着习近平对私营企业的打压，大量中国大陆企业家、商界领袖和其他富裕人士纷纷迁往新加坡。新加坡人口以华人为主，环境对私营企业更加开放，而且新加坡一直以来都免征资本利得税，并提供大量迎合超级精英的私人银行服务。虽然这笔巨额财富的涌入在某种程度上提振了新加坡的经济，但政府似乎不确定该如何应对这笔财富的涌入及其对房地产和租金价格、整体通胀以及新加坡本土创业精神的潜在影响。政府也对这些中国财富的来源感到担忧：去年，政府逮捕并指控数名中国公民涉嫌洗钱及相关罪行。新加坡政府也正在逐渐接受一个事实：
新加坡历史上微薄的社会福利体系需要现代化和扩展，黄之锋很可能在李光耀之后继续沿用这一做法。
与李光耀2004年上任时相比，中国如今在地区海域的侵略性远超以往，军事野心也远超以往。除了菲律宾（尽管中国经济实力雄厚，但在小费迪南德·马科斯的领导下，菲律宾似乎在安全问题上明显站在美国一边）之外，所有其他东南亚国家（除了寮国老挝、柬埔寨和饱受战争蹂躏的缅甸）仍在试图在地区大国之间进行斡旋。
但即使对于像新加坡这样拥有财富、强大外交影响力和高素质外交官队伍的国家来说，在两大国之间斡旋也变得越来越困难。中国在东南亚各国的国内政治中扮演着越来越重要的角色，或者至少是试图扮演越来越重要的角色，新加坡也不例外。新加坡高级官员普遍担心中国会影响新加坡的国内政治，议会也通过了一项严格的外国干涉法。然而，总体而言，新加坡民众对中国影响力的担忧远不及官员，尤其是情报和国防领域的官员。以色列与哈马斯在加沙地带的战争在新加坡数量庞大的穆斯林少数群体中引起强烈反响，损害了美国在这个城市国家的形象。此外，华盛顿在历届政府中都未能在东亚日益增长的贸易一体化进程中发挥任何重要作用，也影响了人们对美国的看法。
包括黄之锋在内的人民行动党成员不得不注意到，新加坡精英阶层与民众之间的分歧日益加深，精英阶层似乎最担心该地区被中国主导的前景，而民众似乎对此并不在意。
黄之锋必须在短短几周内应对所有这些挑战，同时还要帮助人民行动党为竞争激烈的大选做好准备，并向主要由李氏家族成员领导的民众保证，他已做好了应对所有挑战的准备。
Singapore's New Prime Minister Lawrence Wong Faces Challenges From Day One
https://www.cfr.org/blog/singapores-new-prime-minister-lawrence-wong-faces-challenges-day-one
Joshua Kurlantzick, Author April 25, 2024
After two decades in office, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will pass the baton to the ruling party’s chosen successor, who faces a complex geopolitical environment and growing challenges to the party’s leadership at home. 
Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Lawrence Wong delivers the Singapore Energy Lecture during the fifteenth Singapore International Energy Week on October 25, 2022. Isabel Kua/Reuters
Wong comes into the office with numerous strengths. The PAP has prepped him for two years as the centerpiece of what it calls the “4G” or fourth generation of party leaders, and thus of Singapore. Despite a growing opposition presence in parliament, the PAP will almost surely triumph in the next election. Wong is a more natural politician than some of the other candidates who were in the running to replace Lee Hsien Loong. For example, he showed his leadership skills during COVID-19, as Lee noted in a Facebook post announcing the shift and Wong’s elevation. Wong also has held a diversity of positions and jobs, unlike some PAP members, giving him potentially greater insight into more sectors of Singaporean society and also the many domestic and regional issues the city-state now faces.
While Lee did not exactly take office at a calm time—the war on terror was in full form, and Singapore was both a terrorism target for Southeast Asia-based militants and also enlisted as a partner in the global battle by the United States—Wong takes office with the city-state confronting a broader range of challenges. At home, the PAP, though still the dominant force, now faces a more organized political opposition that can no longer be easily marginalized as a small group unrepresentative of Singaporean society. The opposition may boost its seat count in the next election, giving it more leeway in parliament to monitor and criticize the PAP.
The ruling party has faced unusual internal struggles in recent years that have impacted its famously clean image, including the first indictment on corruption charges of a (now former) senior minister, S. Iswaran. He has been indicted on thirty-five charges (and counting) related to bribery and corruption, with the prosecution charging that he took a range of gifts from a Malaysian tycoon and developer, as well as from another contractor. His indictment comes on the heels of other problems in the PAP, which the opposition will surely highlight in the run-up to the next general election. These include a mini-scandal from last year in which two PAP members of parliament resigned because they were having an affair, and, as Al Jazeera notes, around the same time, “two senior government ministers were publicly scrutinized for their rental of state-owned colonial-era bungalows. An investigation found no evidence of wrongdoing, but prompted some to question how the ministers could rent the properties, given that contracts are awarded through a bidding process.”
Meanwhile, Singapore, always trying to hedge between its economic relationship with China and its desire to maintain a close security partnership with the United States, is finding this balance even more challenging to strike than it was in the early days of Lee’s time as prime minister. China is far more dominant economically in the region than it was in the past. As Xi Jinping has cracked down on private enterprise, significant numbers of mainland Chinese entrepreneurs, business leaders, and other wealthy citizens have decamped for Singapore, where the population is majority Chinese, the environment is far more open to private enterprise, and the city-state has a history of no taxation on capital gains and a wealth of private banking services catering to the super-elite. While this massive infusion of wealth has bolstered the city-state’s economy in some ways, the government seems unsure how to handle the influx and its possible impact on property and rental prices, overall inflation, and domestic Singaporean entrepreneurship. The government also has concerns about how some of this Chinese wealth was earned: last year, it arrested and charged several Chinese nationals with money laundering and related crimes. The Singaporean government is also coming to terms with the fact that its historically minimal social welfare net needs to be modernized and expanded, an approach Wong will likely continue in Lee’s wake.
China is now far more aggressive in regional waters and far more ambitious militarily than when Lee assumed office in 2004. Other than the Philippines, which under Ferdinand Marcos Jr. seems to be clearly siding with the United States on security issues despite China’s economic might, all the other Southeast Asian states (save tiny Laos, Cambodia, and war-torn Myanmar) are still trying to hedge between the region’s great powers.
But it is getting tougher, even for a country with the wealth, significant diplomatic influence, and skilled diplomatic corps that Singapore possesses, to hedge between the two powers. China is playing a larger role, or at least attempting to play a larger role, in the domestic politics of every state in Southeast Asia, and Singapore is no exception. Growing worries about Chinese influence within Singapore’s domestic politics are common among senior Singaporean officials, and parliament has passed a tough foreign interference law. Yet the population overall seems far less concerned about this kind of Chinese influence than officials, especially those in the intelligence and defense realms. The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, which resonates among Singapore’s sizable Muslim minority, hurts the United States’ image in the city-state. Further, Washington’s inability through multiple administrations to play any significant role in East Asia’s growing trade integration has also impacted perceptions of the United States.
The PAP, including Wong, cannot help but notice that there is a growing divide between Singaporean elites, who seem most concerned about the prospect of a region dominated by China, and the populace, which seems relatively unbothered by this scenario.
Wong will have to navigate all these challenges in just a few weeks while also preparing the PAP for a contested general election and reassuring the public, which has mostly been led by members of the Lee family, that he is ready on all these fronts.
