Jeffrey Sachs 关税是谎言，赤字是你们自己的错

Jeffrey Sachs 关税是谎言，赤字是你们自己的错

“关税是谎言，赤字是你们自己的错”，杰弗里·萨克斯在联合国抨击特朗普的贸易战

Times Now 2025年5月2日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnFMnUdnbk4

美国经济学家杰弗里·萨克斯在联合国安理会“阿里亚方案”会议上对华盛顿的外交政策进行了严厉批评，指责特朗普政府“经济霸凌”，违反国际法，破坏多边主义。萨克斯引用了他自己的研究，该研究显示美国在193个联合国成员国中对多边合作的支持程度垫底，他谴责单边关税、强制性制裁和美元武器化严重损害了全球稳定。“这些措施不仅是非法的，”萨克斯警告说，“它们还会提高死亡率，威胁全球和平。”他呼吁回归《联合国宪章》原则，并警告称，美国当前的行动已使世界“距离核午夜仅剩89秒”。

非常感谢您在这个极其重要的时刻召开这次区域公式会议，讨论一个至关重要的议题。嗯，这个至关重要的议题是，我们如何才能保护、维护和扩展真正的多边主义，也就是，根据原则、道德、国际法和联合国宪章的标准进行治理。我们当然生活在一个多极化的世界，权力广泛分散在世界各地。但正如大使先生您所说的，由于国际体系的滥用，我们并没有完全进入一个多边世界。去年我发表了一项研究，名为“各国支持联合国多边主义指数”。这项研究的目的是衡量各国与联合国多边主义的距离。我很遗憾地说，即使在去年美国采取新一轮单边关税措施之前，在193个联合国成员国中，美国在世界排名中也排在倒数第193位，成为最不符合联合国多边主义的国家。这是因为美国采取了许多联合国体系之外的措施。违反了基于联合国的体系，背弃了对联合国的承诺，美国在大多数时候，或者更准确地说，在联合国大会上，投票反对世界上大多数国家。你们召开这次会议，部分原因是美国单边制裁引发的紧急危机。这些制裁被称为互惠制裁、互惠关税，但与关税互惠无关。让我简单解释一下，特朗普总统声称美国贸易逆差是由其他国家欺负美国造成的。如果美国与一百多个国家存在贸易逆差，那么这在某种程度上是其他国家的错。我教授国际宏观经济学44年了，我可以毫不含糊地说，贸易逆差并不意味着其他国家在利用美国。
它只是衡量美国支出超过收入的指标。换句话说，它的总消费和投资大于国民生产总值。这是一个统计恒等式。经常账户余额是美国与世界其他国家商品和服务净贸易的综合指标。
这个赤字等于美国支出超过美国收入的差额。那么，为什么美国的支出超过收入呢？原因在于美国的储蓄率非常低。与中国不同，中国人民、企业和政府都很节俭。在美国，私营部门和公共部门的储蓄率都很低。但最值得注意的是，美国联邦政府的赤字高达每年2万亿美元的巨额赤字，占其国内生产总值的6%到7%。这会导致每年1万亿美元的经常账户赤字。因此，美国政府的经济主张完全不能为这些关税措施提供依据。关税旨在消除贸易逆差，而这并非中国合作伙伴的错，而是由美国巨额预算赤字和低私人储蓄造成的。因此，美国将自己的经济政策归咎于其他国家。这一点非常重要。这些单边关税毫无道理。
它们之间毫无关联。对世界其他国家不公平的做法，以某种方式欺骗了美国。现在，美国政府的主张从未经过国会审查，也从未公开辩论过。它是作为一项紧急法令颁布的，呃，呃，在我看来，这不仅违反了多边主义，也违反了美国宪法。美国宪法第一条第八款明确赋予美国国会征收关税的权力，而不是美国总统。美国已经举行了多场法庭听证会，质疑美国政府单方面征收关税的合法性。我发现没有美国政府在经济上没有任何正当理由为所采取的行动辩解，全球金融市场也开始陷入恐慌，迫使政府在大多数情况下扭转其行动。不幸的是，包括美国和中国在内的世界经济正在持续受到损害。现在我想强调的是，这种单边主义有多种形式，关税只是其中之一。大使先生，如果您允许我，我想简要列举一下。美国是除关税之外，使用强制性经济措施最多的国家，包括对不同公司、对海外个人、对海外银行部门实施制裁。因此，美国是迄今为止使用单边强制性措施最多的国家。联合国大会一再宣布，此类单边强制性措施违反《联合国宪章》，非法。这些措施对世界各地的人口造成了巨大伤害，剥夺了人们获得基本医疗保健的机会，以及食物和清洁水等最基本需求。它们提高了死亡率。换句话说，这些措施不仅是非法的，而且对健康和福祉极其有害，尤其是对极度贫困的人群。此外，美国没收其他国家的资产，就像它对俄罗斯联邦、委内瑞拉、伊朗、朝鲜、阿富汗和其他国家所做的那样。它只是冻结了与其外交政策存在分歧的其他国家的美元资产。这是对美元在国际结算中特权的滥用，因为美国将其用作武器，而不是支付结算系统，在美国的推动下，这种情况已经变得非常严重。欧洲也采取了这些单方面的强制性措施，包括没收俄罗斯3000亿美元的外汇储备，在我看来，这公然违反??国际法，违背世界利益。不幸的是，美国参与了许多秘密的政权更迭行动。这意味着它不仅参与经济欺凌，而且实际上还试图或实际推翻政府。这些现在已经被非常严肃的研究记录下来，一项出色的研究统计了1947年至1989年期间的64次秘密政权更迭行动。这是一个令人震惊的事实。任何国家都不应该推翻政府。不幸的是，美国也在世界各地进行军备竞赛。没有任何一个国家像美国这样，在80个国家拥有750个海外军事基地。我认为这本身就对美国安全极为不利，也对世界和平构成威胁。但它也导致了世界各地的军备竞赛。我很遗憾地说，美国也在阻碍联合国系统的工作。谈到贸易，建立基于规则的贸易体系的关键是世界贸易组织，美国应该为帮助其成立而感到自豪。然而，自2019年以来，美国一直阻挠世贸组织上诉机构的运作，导致世贸组织无法进行争端解决，因为上诉机构没有足够的法官，因为美国故意阻挠世贸组织职位的填补，以便这个基于规则的关键机构能够履行职责。最后，我想补充一点，美国单方面背离了具有全球意义的基本条约，包括《反弹道导弹条约》。 2002年，或许是美俄关系史上最大的动荡。因为《反弹道导弹条约》（ABM条约）是美俄关系稳定的废纸篓。2019年，美国单方面退出了《中导条约》。在特朗普总统的领导下，美国再次退出了《巴黎气候协定》，而该协定是联合国气候变化框架公约下一项对世界安全至关重要的全球性协议。这一切都非常可怕。换句话说，多边主义的破裂。美国这样一个强大、具有影响力的国家，却是联合国所有成员国中最不多边的国家，这给世界带来了重大风险和挑战。我只想简要提一下，然后作为结束。首先是破裂的经济关系。经济贸易。国际贸易不是单赢的，而是一个双赢的。当美国和中国进行贸易时，双方都会受益。当贸易关系因单边关税而破裂时，双方都会受损。这非常令人难过。当然，当世贸组织（WTO）破裂时，损失最大的是最贫穷的国家。基于规则的体系面临这样的危机。第二个代价当然是军备竞赛。全世界现在每年在军备上花费数万亿美元，但愿这些武器不会被使用。我们当然不能使用这些武器，但用于这些武器的资源浪费令人震惊。包括欧洲在内的许多国家正在削减其军备研发开支。用军事援助预算来建立军事预算。这对于一个和平的世界来说是不可接受的，也绝不会以任何方式保障我们的安全。第三个代价当然是公开冲突。这些单边措施导致战争，而我们之所以爆发几场战争，正是因为各国不遵守国际体系。例如，去年国际法院裁定，以色列违反国际法，将领土延伸至1967年6月4日的边界之外。由于这一违反行为，联合国大会将于6月就两国解决方案的实施举行高级别会议。以色列不幸也是世界上多边主义排名最低的国家之一。因此，我们因此引发了公开冲突。我们还面临着严峻的现实，我们曾多次濒临核对抗。原子科学家公报告诉世界，我们距离午夜还有大约89秒。核对抗即将到来。另一个风险来自单边主义和霸凌。当然，当我们面临冲突、霸凌和单边主义时，我们就无法获得我们迫切需要的解决方案，而这些解决方案对于解决气候变化、发展绿色经济、建设可持续世界的未来以及实现可持续发展目标至关重要，正如大使先生所提到的。因此，偏离一个至关重要的议程是所有这一切的显著代价之一。我们都在遭受单边主义的困扰。我们都在遭受霸凌。这是一个双输的局面。80年前，我们的先辈们创造了联合国，建立了一个国际法体系，一个受到国际尊重的体系。我们有责任推动它。我感谢你们今天召开的非常重要的会议，因为我们必须扭转单边主义，积极推动多边主义，并在每一个关键时刻遵守《联合国宪章》，因为这是我们安全、生存和发展的关键。为了我们的可持续发展，非常感谢。

‘Tariffs Are a Lie. The Deficit Is Your Own Fault’, Jeffrey Sachs Rips Into Trump’s Trade War at UN

 

Times Now 2025年5月2日  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnFMnUdnbk4

 

U.S. economist Jeffrey Sachs delivered a scathing critique of Washington’s foreign policy at a UN Security Council Arria-formula meeting, accusing the Trump administration of "economic bullying," violating international law, and undermining multilateralism. Citing his own study ranking the U.S. last among 193 UN member states in support for multilateral cooperation, Sachs condemned unilateral tariffs, coercive sanctions, and the weaponization of the dollar as deeply damaging to global stability. “These measures are not only illegal,” Sachs warned, “they raise mortality rates and threaten global peace.” He urged a return to UN Charter principles, warning that current U.S. actions have brought the world “89 seconds from nuclear midnight.”

 

thank you so much for convening this area formula meeting at an extremely

important time and on a crucial topic Uh the crucial topic is uh how we can

protect preserve and extend true multilateralism that is uh governance

according to principle according to ethics according to international law and according to the standards of the UN charter We are of course in a multi-olar world where

power is widely dispersed across the world But we are not fully in a

multilateral world because of the abuses of the international system as you have

spelled out uh ambassador Last year I published a study uh it's called the index of countries support for UNbased multilateralism The purpose of the study was to measure how close or how far countries are from

alignment with UNbased multilateralism

I am sorry to say that even last year

before this new round of unilateral

tariff measures of the United States of

the 193 UN member states the United

States ranked last 193rd in the world making it the country

least aligned with UN multilateralism

This is because the United States takes

many measures that are outside of the

UNbased system that are in violation of

the UN-based system that walk away from

UN commitments and the United States

votes against most of the world most of

the time or much of the time let me say

to be more precise in the UN General

Assembly You have convened this meeting uh in

part because of the immediate uh crisis

that has occurred because of US unilateral sanctions These were called

reciprocal sanction reciprocal tariffs

but they had nothing to do with reciprocity of tariffs And let me

explain briefly President Trump made the claim

that the US trade deficit is caused by

other countries abusing the United States That

if the US is running a trade deficit as

it does with more than a hundred countries that this is somehow the fault

of those other countries Well I have been teaching international macroeconomics for 44

years and I can say unequivocally that a trade deficit is

not a signal that other countries are

somehow taking advantage of the United

States It is only a measure that the

United States is spending more than it

earns In other words that its total

consumption and investment is greater

than the gross national product That is

a statistical identity The current

account balance which is the comprehensive measure of the net trade

of the United States and goods and

services with the rest of the world That

deficit equals the excess of US spending

over US income Now why does the US spend

more than it uh earns the reason is that

the saving rate in the United States is

very low Unlike China where people and

businesses and government are thrifty in

the United States the saving rates are

low of both the private sector and the

public sector But most notably the US federal government is

running an enormous deficit between 6

and 7% of our gross domestic product $2

trillion of deficit per year And that

spills over into a current account

deficit of $1 trillion per year So the tariff measures are utterly

unjustified by the economic claims of

the US government The tariffs are directed

towards a trade deficit that is not the

fault of China's partners but is the

result of America's large budget

deficits and low private saving And so

the United States is blaming other

countries for its own economic policies And this is extremely

important There is no excuse for these

unilateral tariffs Not remotely are they related to unfair

practices of the rest of the world

somehow cheating the United States Now

the claim of the US government was never

examined by Congress It was never

debated in the public It was made as a

matter of a an emergency decree uh that uh also

in my view not only violates

multilateralism but also the US

constitution where article 1 section 8

of the US constitution absolutely gives the power

of tariffs to the US congress not to the

president of the United States There are

already several court hearings in the

United States challenging the legality

of the US government's unilateral

imposition of tariffs I find no

justification whatsoever economically

for the actions that were taken nor did

the financial markets worldwide which

began to enter into a panic and that

forced the administration in most cases

to reverse what it had done Unfortunately uh there is continuing damage to the

world economy including visav China Now I want to emphasize that this

unilateralism takes many forms The

tariffs is just one And if you'll permit

me uh ambassador I would like to just

list briefly The United States is the

biggest user of coercive economic

measures other than tariffs putting on

sanctions on different companies on

individuals abroad on banking sectors

abroad And so the US is by far the

biggest user of unilateral coercive

measures And the UN General Assembly

repeatedly declares such unilateral

coercive measures to be illegal against

the UN charter And they do enormous harm

to populations all over the world

depriving populations of access to basic

health care to the most basic needs of

food and clean water They raise

mortality rates In other words they are

not only illegal but they are extremely

damaging to the health and well-being

especially of very poor people

The US in addition confiscates the assets of other

countries as it has done with the

Russian Federation with Venezuela with

Iran with North Korea with Afghanistan

and with other countries It simply

freezes the dollar holdings of other

countries with which it has foreign

policy differences And this is an abuse

of the prerogative of the role of the

dollar in international settlements

because it is used by the United States

as a weapon rather than as a payments

settlement system and this has become

very serious under the US uh impetus Uh

Europe too has engaged in these

unilateral coercive measures including

the confiscation of $300 billion dollar

of Russian foreign exchange reserves

which is in my opinion blatantly against

international law and against world

interest The United States unfortunately

engages in many covert regime change

operations Meaning that it engages not

only in economic bullying but in

actually the attempt or the actual

overthrow of governments These have been

now documented in very serious studies

counting by one excellent study 64

covert regime change operations during

the period 1947 to 1989 This is a

staggering fact No country should be

overturning the government of another

country under the UN charter Unfortunately the US is also engaged in

arms buildups all over the world No

other country comes close to having the

US situation of 750 overseas military bases in 80

countries This by itself in my opinion

is highly detrimental to American

security and a threat to the global

peace But it leads to arms buildups all

over the world I'm sad to say that the

United States also is impeding the work

of the UN system When it comes to trade

the key to a rule-based trade system is

the World Trade Organization which the

United States should take pride in

helping to bring into existence And yet

the United States since 2019 has blocked the appellet panel of

the WTO so that dispute settlements

cannot take place now at WTO because the

appelllet body does not have the

requisite judges because the United

States is deliberately blocking the

filling of positions of WTO so that that

crucial rulesbased institution can do

its job And finally I would add that the

United States has unilaterally departed

from fundamental treaties of global

significance including from the

anti-bballistic missile treaty in 2002

which was perhaps the single biggest

destabilization visa v Russia because

the ABM treaty the anti-bballistic

missile treaty was a bull work of

USRussia stability The US unilaterally

abandoned the intermediate nuclear force

treaty in 2019 and the United States is

walking out once again under President

Trump of the Paris climate agreement

which is a crucial global agreement

under the UN framework convention on

climate change for world security This is all quite dire In other

words the break of the multilateralism the fact that the United

States such a powerful country and such

an influential country in the world is

the least multilateral of all of the UN

member states poses major risks and

challenges to the world And I just want

to mention them in brief and then to

close First are the broken economic

relations Economic trade international trade is not a

winlose proposition It is a winwin

proposition When the United States and

China trade both sides benefit When the trade relations are

ruptured by unilateral tariffs both

sides lose This is extremely sad Of

course it's the poorest countries that

lose the most when the WTO rules-based

system faces such a crisis The second

cost of course is the arms race The

world is spending trillions of dollars

per year on armaments right now and god

forbid they should be used We must

not of course use these armaments but

the waste of resources directed at these

armaments is staggering Many countries including in

Europe are cutting their development aid

budget to build their military budget

This is unacceptable for a peaceful

world and it will not satisfy our security in any way

The third cost of course is open

conflict These unilateral measures lead

to war and we have several wars raging

precisely because countries are not

obeying the international system It was

decided by the international court of

justice last year for example that

Israel is violating international law by

extending beyond its borders of the 4th

of June

1967 and the UN General Assembly will

hold a high level session on the

implementation of the two-state solution

in June because of this violation Israel

sad to say is also one of the lowest

ranked countries in the world in

multilateralism So we get open conflict

as a result of this We also have the

dire reality that we have come far too

close to nuclear confrontation on

several occasions And the bulletin of

atomic scientists tells the world that

we are about 89 seconds from midnight on

nuclear confrontation This is another

risk that comes from the unilateralism

and the bullying Of course when we have

conflict when we have bullying when we

have unilateralism we don't gain

solutions that we desperately need for

climate change for the green economy for

the future of a sustainable world for

the sustainable development goals as you

mentioned ambassador And so the

diversion from an absolutely crucial

agenda is one of the telling costs of all of this We are all suffering from unilateralism We all suffer from bullying This is a lose-lose proposition We created 80 years ago Our our forefathers did a wondrous job to create the United Nations to make a system of international law a system of international respect And we have the responsibility to promote it And I thank you for today's very important session because it is extremely important that we reverse from unilateralism and promote actively multilateralism and the UN charter at every turn as the key for our safety for our survival and for our sustainable development Thank you very much。