风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
中国为何不会在特朗普的关税政策上让步
Why China WON'T Back Down On Trump's Tariff Shakedown
2025年4月8日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpvf-2lXj2g
Mallen Baker
创作关于政治、科学，尤其是两者碰撞的“危险理性”内容。我致力于对重要议题提供独立、基于事实、不带意识形态的解读。
我不会带任何先入之见地进行研究和分析，并坦诚地分享我的发现。你很快就会发现，一些你自以为确信无疑的事情，其实并没有任何坚实的基础——当然，也有一些事情确实有根基！关注这个频道，你将获得挑战和乐趣，偶尔也会感到愤怒！
Mallen 花了二十年时间与英国乃至全球的一些领先企业合作，共同制定企业社会责任方案。在此之前，他曾涉足某种政治领域，最初担任绿党联合主席兼首席发言人，后来担任自由民主党联邦政策委员会委员和绿党自由民主党主席。此后二十年，Mallen 一直是一位无党派的摇摆选民。
Mallen Baker
Creating 'dangerously reasonable' content on politics, science, and particularly the bit where they bump into each other.
I aim to give an independent, fact-focused, non-ideological take on the issues that matter.
I look at the research and analysis without preconception, and talk frankly about what I find. You quickly find that some of the things you thought you knew for sure turn out not to have any solid basis - alongside the things that do, of course! Follow the channel to be challenged and entertained, probably occasionally infuriated!
Mallen spent two decades developing approaches to corporate social responsibility with some of the leading corporations in the UK and across the world. Before that, he dabbled in sort-of politics, initially as a Co-Chair and Principal Speaker with the Greens, and then latterly on the Federal Policy Committee of the Lib Dems and Chair of the Green Lib Dems. Mallen has been an unaffiliated floating voter for two decades since then.
特朗普总统向世界宣布加征关税时，中国位列榜首，并被征收了当天最高额的关税之一。此举本应促使北京坐到谈判桌前乞求减免关税，但习近平却宣布了贸易战，并宣称中国将赢得这场战争，以及特朗普想要与中国进行的任何其他战争。为什么事态会升级得如此之快？因为特朗普的权力游戏是为了维护美国的霸权，而中国决心将其从霸主地位上赶下台。所以，特朗普此举是认真的。让我们来讨论一下。
特朗普总统在玫瑰园的表演震惊了世界，他谈到了对美国征收高额关税的虚假数据，这意味着对其他国家随意征收关税是合理的。中国位居榜首，中国将被征收34%的关税，或者更确切地说，任何进口中国制造商品的国家都将被征收34%的关税。因此，中国以同样的34%的报复性关税予以回应。这并不是特朗普总统所希望的回应。他说，除非中国改变反制措施，否则他将额外征收50%的关税，这将与第一笔关税加上先前存在的关税加在一起，意味着总关税将达到约120%。每当特朗普玩这种游戏时，对方通常会迅速屈服，承认美国经济与几乎所有其他国家之间残酷的实力不平衡，但中国并不处于这种境地，并认为对抗全球霸主符合自身的核心利益。一位中国外交部发言人表示，这是美国的威胁。进一步提高关税是一个错误，再加上另一个错误，再次暴露了美方的胁迫本质。中国永远不会接受这一点。中国政府说的很多话都是虚张声势和傲慢，但在这一点上他们没有错。美国试图通过这些关税所做的事情，本质上确实是胁迫性的。那些最称赞特朗普政府制定计划的人，指出了其主要经济顾问的文字和演讲，并指出美国现在需要解决其结构性赤字问题。通常情况下，这可以通过减少开支、略微提高税收来实现，这样你的支出就不会超过实际收入。然而，这并不是特朗普真正想要的。毕竟，他刚刚宣布大幅增加国防开支，将达到1万亿美元。然后，他非常热衷于减税。这两者都可能是正确的政策。明白你可以辩论这一点，但很明显，它们并不符合降低整体预算的要求。赤字还在增加，而且显然，如果你看过我关于埃隆·马斯克的“狗狗币”行动的视频，你就会明白，这对美国的任务也没什么帮助。所以故事是这样的，他们正在寻求一项“大交易”，再次改变世界经济秩序，使其服务于美国的需求。所以，就像这样：一是利用关税制造混乱和恐惧，二是让每个人都爬到椭圆形办公室乞求协议，三是让那些持有大量美元的人将他们的持股转换为百年期政府债券，这些债券基本上要在所有人死后很久才能支付，这给了美国免费的资金，换句话说，作为回报，你获得了进入美国市场的特权，同时也获得了美国安全保护的好处，因为外面的世界很危险，你知道，如果这真的是计划，它就会与现实发生相当残酷的冲突，而且非常首先，因为现在没人相信美国不会在事后修改协议，也不会真正为除了自己以外的任何人提供安全保障，至少不会在事后提出额外的赔偿要求。如果美国缺乏信誉，签署这项协议，或者被人用比喻性的枪指着脑袋，你也可能会拒绝。其次，中国是美元最大的持有者之一，而且显然不会将其持有的美元兑换成愚蠢的债券，或者特朗普币，但我再说一遍，中国有取代美元成为全球储备货币的野心。美国之所以能够承受如此巨大的赤字，其中一个主要原因是，世界上有这么多人想要持有美元，因为美元被认为是一个不稳定世界中的稳定避难所。特朗普过去三个月的行动，可以说比你能想到的任何其他行动都更能动摇这一假设，但中国也可以认为，它已经……必要时，美国可以
选择放弃部分甚至全部核武库。这将推高美国政府本已高得不可持续的借贷成本，并动摇美元在全球的地位。现在，这必须是经过深思熟虑的最后手段，因为它肯定会损害中国以及凯投宏观首席亚洲经济学家马克·威廉姆斯对《每日电讯报》的报道。“中国拥有约3万亿美元的资产，相当于英国的GDP总量。”他说，中国不可能迅速抛售3万亿美元的资产。一旦尝试，美元价值就会暴跌，他们所抛售资产的经济价值将大幅缩水。这将重创美国经济，迫使美联储介入并在短期内开始印钞，这将在中期产生各种负面成本。但威廉姆斯将其比作向坐在你对面的人扔手榴弹。你肯定会击中他们，但你自己也可能被炸伤。中国更有可能暂时满足于采取更传统的应对措施，例如对美国农产品征收高额关税，禁止美国家禽进口，甚至禁止好莱坞电影。问题是，中国很可能确信美国在搞砸自身经济方面做得很好，非常感谢，而且中国对特朗普不经通知就胡乱行事的倾向感到警惕，因此中国会热衷于等待特朗普下台，让他沉迷于最大程度的自我毁灭，同时在……方面胜过他。世界舞台
因为你知道，比如说，美国已经表明，它甚至不了解自己拥有的软实力以及
它赋予它的优势。中国说得很好。中国一直在向那些因美国国际开发署突然撤销而陷入困境的国家伸出援手。
并向他们指出，如果美国成为更可靠的合作伙伴，中国将会更加可靠。因此，美国正在用惩罚性贸易关税攻击其盟友。中国说得很好。许多国家一直在降低与中国贸易的风险，但现在许多国家倾向于重新考虑这一决定，因为事实证明，与美国贸易的风险实际上更大。所以你可以理解为什么他们可能不着急，但作为下一个全球霸主，他们不会允许特朗普在世界面前欺负他们。与此同时，在世界面前，中国人不会在特朗普面前丢脸，这对他们来说意义重大，甚至比对他来说更大。至少他有能力宣布失败为胜利，所有他忠实的支持者都会全盘接受这一说法。事实是特朗普自赢得大选以来，向北京发出了各种混杂的信号。毕竟，他邀请习近平出席他的就职典礼，但遭到了习近平的礼貌拒绝。他曾谈到与中国达成一项涵盖贸易、投资和裁军等广泛领域的协议，甚至在国会和乔·拜登通过一项措施关闭TikTok并使其脱离中国控制之后，他仍在努力让TikTok在美国继续存在。他报告说，他非常接近就TikTok达成协议，但后来发生了一些事情，这意味着中国突然退出了谈判。结果呢？他坚持认为，对中国征收34%的关税。与某些国家不同，中国认为，你不能一边假装是朋友，一边又被攻击。特朗普现在延长了TikTok的最后期限，希望中国尽快在关税问题上让步，然后一切又会回到谈判桌上。谁知道呢？因为他承认中国是一个更强大的竞争对手，他很可能会悄悄地提供一些他不愿提供的回报。其他人，比如特朗普，迄今为止，他对台湾问题的立场一直有些模棱两可。美国负责公共外交的临时副国务卿达伦·贝蒂去年在推特上发文称：“现实情况是，台湾最终将不可避免地被中国吞并，这或许意味着台湾的变装皇后游行会减少，但除此之外，这并不是世界末日。这真是个让‘让美国再次伟大’（MAGA）基地做好准备的方法，让他们支持某件事。告诉他们，如果中国军队入侵台湾，主要问题是，台湾杀死了他们中的许多人，并征服了其余的人民，那么，这一切将会导致变装皇后的数量减少，让台湾看起来杂乱无章。目前，中国军队正在以世界历史上前所未有的速度建设，而西方国家，包括美国和俄罗斯，一直在乌克兰战争中消耗武器库存。中国一直在旁观，从战场上汲取教训，并准备自己的军队。它也一直在学习俄罗斯的策略，包括虚假信息宣传和……正在按照剧本行事，以分裂台湾民众。在一份提交给台湾立法院的报告中，其安全局表示，今年迄今已检测到超过50万条争议性信息。中国正在使用人工智能工具来促进这些信息的生成和传播。你们或许已经注意到，过去几天，美国利用了这些能力来嘲讽特朗普想要重新工业化的愿望。尽管中国一直在加强在钓鱼岛周边的军事演习，并在附近举行了为期两天的军事演习和实弹演习，并且一直在研发新的军事工具，例如可用于快速入侵台湾的便携式舰船，但这一切仍在继续。我们认为台湾现在对美国在遭到攻击时会强力援助的可能性有多大信心？我的意思是，不能指望特朗普，特朗普太难以预测了。因此，我们也不能完全依赖特朗普。出于同样的原因，台湾或许会从以下事实中获得一些安慰：在特朗普制定的名单上，台湾大多数时候都以独立国家的身份出现。但大多数时候，台湾并没有被承认为一个独立的国家，以免惹恼中国。或许是因为特朗普提议对它们征收关税，所以它出现在名单上，这在一定程度上缓和了局势。与此同时，如果美中贸易战持续下去，双方都不让步，很多东西在美国都会变得更贵，比如苹果设备，而苹果设备严重依赖中国的组装和制造。特朗普团队惯用的粗鲁语言和一系列侮辱性言论，例如JD Vance告诉福克斯新闻，美国一直在向中国农民借钱购买这些东西，而这些中国农民却回应说，中国制造的中国制造，称他无知无礼，这并非第一次被指出。关键在于，特朗普相信，在他的领导下，美国未来一定会持续存在，美国将继续主宰世界，并利用其实力迫使所有人接受不平等的贸易，这将使美国长期保持这种状态。相信习近平肯定是其中之一，他正在摧毁美国的力量，因为他展现出恃强凌弱、自私自利、不可靠，对盟友构成威胁，并且在面对更强大的敌人时无能为力。中国视自己为潜在的世界强国，并且已经做好了与美国发生冲突的准备，无论冲突达到何种程度。这意味着，要么特朗普最终会退缩，或者至少会停止升级，以回应对其倡议的抵制，要么整个事情会越来越升级。特朗普团队和他们的“让美国再次伟大”支持者显然认为地缘政治是一场零和游戏，所以如果最终他们一无所获，那也只能怪他们自己。与此同时，我们只能坐下来，带着一种恐惧和着迷的感觉，看着这一切的展开。
Why China WON'T Back Down On Trump's Tariff Shakedown
2025年4月8日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpvf-2lXj2g
When President Trump announced his tariffs to the world, China was right at the top of the list, and it was hit with one of the largest tariffs of the day. This was supposed to get Beijing to the negotiating table to beg for tariff relief, but instead Xi Jinping declared a trade war, and said that China would win this, and any other sort of war Trump wanted to fight with them. Why did it escalate so quickly? Because Trump's power play is about trying to hold on to American hegemony and China is determined to oust it from the top slot. So this one is in deadly earnest. Let's discuss.
when President Trump stunned the world
with his Rose Garden performance talking
about how the fake figures making up how
high tariffs were imposed on the US
meant that it was proportionate to slap
random tariffs on others china was at
the top of the list china was to be hit
with 34% tariffs or rather anyone
importing Chinese-made goods would be
hit with 34% tariffs so China responded
with a retaliatory tariff of the same
34% this was not the response President
Trump had been hoping for and he said
that unless China reversed its counter
move he would slap on an additional
50% levy which would combine with the
first tariff plus pre-existing tariffs
to mean that there would be a combined
charge of around about 120%
whenever Trump has played this game
generally the other side has caved quite
often quickly in recognition of the
brutal power imbalance between the US
economy and just about everyone else but
China is not in that position and sees
itself as having a core self-interest in
asserting itself against the global
bully a Chinese ministry spokesman said
this the US threat to further escalate
tariffs is a mistake compounded by
another mistake and once again exposes
the coercive nature of the US side china
will never accept this there are many
things the Chinese state says that is
bluster and hubris but in this they are
not wrong what the US is attempting to
do with these tariffs is indeed coercive
to its core those who give the Trump
administration most credit for having a
plan point to the writing and speeches
of his key economic advisers and point
to the need for the US to tackle its
structural deficit now conventionally
that would be done by you know spending
less money maybe raising taxes a little
so that you're no longer spending more
than you're actually bringing in that
however isn't really what Trump has in
mind he has after all just announced a
major increase in defense spending to go
up to a trillion dollars and then
there's the tax cuts he's really keen to
carry out either of those may be the
right policies understand you can debate
that but clear as day they don't line up
to bringing down the overall budget to
stop adding to the deficit and obviously
if you've seen my videos about the
contribution being made by Elon Musk's
Doge operation you'll understand that
that hasn't made much of a scratch on
the mission either so the story goes they are looking for a
grand bargain to once again shift the
world economic order to service
America's needs so it goes like this one
create chaos and fear with an onslaught
of tariffs job done you'd have to say
two get everyone crawling to the Oval
Office begging for a deal three get
those that hold significant quantities
of dollars to transfer their holdings
into hundredyear bonds government bonds
that basically pay out only long after
everyone's all died give the United
States free money in other words in
return you get privileged access to the
US market and also in return you get the
benefit of America's security protection
cuz it's a dangerous world out there you
know if that is really the plan it kind of
runs up against reality rather brutally
and very quickly first because nobody
now trusts the United States not to
change the agreement later nor indeed to
actually provide security to anyone but
itself at least not without making
additional demands for reparations after
the event zero credibility you'd have to
be stupid to sign up for that deal or
literally have a metaphorical gun to the
head and even then you might say no and
second because China is one of the
biggest holders of the US dollar and is
obviously not going to convert its
holdings into stupid bonds or indeed
Trumpcoin but I repeat myself indeed
China has the ambition of replacing the
dollar as the global reserve currency
one of the main reasons why the US can
even get away with the ridiculous size
of its current deficit is that so many
people in the world want to hold dollars
because it's supposedly a stable refuge
in an unstable world well Trump's
actions over the last 3 months have
arguably done more to shake that
assumption than anything else you could
have thought of but China could also
consider that it has a nuclear option to
hand should it need it in that it could
choose to dump some or even all of its
US treasuries this would push up US
government borrowing costs already
unsustainably high and destabilize the
dollar's position in the world now it
would have to be a calculated move of
last resort because it would definitely
hurt China as well as Mark Williams the
chief Asia economist at Capital
Economics told the Telegraph "China owns
around $3 trillion in assets which is
the same as the entire GDP for the
United Kingdom." He said this there is
no way to offload three trillion of
assets in a hurry as soon as it tried
the value of the dollar would plunge and
they would lose much of the economic
value of what they were divesting it
would tank the US economy it would force
the Fed to step in and start printing
money in the short term which would have
all sorts of negative costs in the
medium term but Williams likened it to
lobbing a hand grenade at someone
sitting just across from you in a room
sure you're going to hit them but you
can get burned pretty well yourself as
well more likely China will content
itself for now in doing the more
traditional response actions slapping
major tariffs on for example American
agriculture banning US poultry imports
maybe banning Hollywood movies the thing
is China is likely convinced that the US
is doing a perfectly fine job thank you
very much of screwing up its own economy
and it is wary of Trump's propensity to
do random stuff without notice so it'll
be keen to wait him out let him indulge
in maximum self-destruction while
outsmarting him on the world stage
because you know the US has shown for
instance that it doesn't even understand
all the soft power it had and the
advantage that it gave it well great
says China china's been moving into
those left high and dry by the sudden
abolition of USAID and pointing out to
them how much more reliable a partner
China would be so the US is attacking
its allies with punitive trade tariffs
well great says China many of those
countries had been derisking their
exposure to trade with China but many of
them will now be inclined to revisit
that decision because it turns out in
practice that being exposed to America
is actually even more risky so you can
see why they might not be in a hurry but
they won't as the putitive next supreme
global power allow Trump to bully them
in the meantime in front of the world
the Chinese will not lose face to Trump
that is a big deal for them even bigger
than it is for him at least he has the
ability to declare a defeat to be a
victory and all his devoted supporters
will swallow the claim hook line and
sinker and the fact has been that Trump
has sent mixed signals to Beijing since
he won his election after all he invited
Xiinping to attend his inauguration an
invitation which was politely declined
he has talked about striking a wide
ranging deal with China covering trade
investment and disarmament and he's even
been working to keep Tik Tok alive in
the US after Congress and Joe Biden
passed a measure to shut it down and let
it divested from Chinese control indeed
he reported he was very close to a deal
on Tik Tok but then something happened
that meant the Chinese pulled abruptly
away from the discussions what happened well he stuck
34% tariffs on China that's what
happened unlike some countries China
does not believe you can pretend to be
friends on one side while being attacked
on the other trump has now extended the
Tik Tok deadline hoping that the Chinese
will cave soon on tariffs and then it
will all come back onto the table again
and who knows since he recognizes China
as a more powerful rival he might well
be prepared to offer things quietly in
return that he wouldn't offer for anyone
else so for example Trump has been
somewhat ambiguous to date about his
position on Taiwan the interim under secretary of
state for public diplomacy Darren Beatty
posted on Twitter last year "The reality
is that Taiwan will eventually
inevitably be absorbed into China this
might mean fewer drag queen parades in
Taiwan but otherwise not the end of the
world ah way to prepare the MAGA base to
support something tell them that the
main issue if Chinese military invades
Taiwan kills many of them and subjugates
the rest of its people is that this will
all be about fewer drag queens running
around making the place look untidy
right now the Chinese military is being
built up at a rate unprecedented in
world history while the West including
the US sometimes and Russia have been
depleting their stocks of weapons in the
war in Ukraine China has been watching
on untouched learning the lessons from
the battlefield and preparing its own
forces it has been learning the lessons
of Russia's approach also to
disinformation campaigns and is
following the playbook in order to
divide the Taiwanese population in a
report to Taiwan's parliament its
security bureau said that it had
detected more than half a million pieces
of controversial messages so far this
year china is using AI tools to boost the
generation and dissemination of those
messages indeed you may have noticed
that some of that capacity has been
utilized in the last couple of days to
mock Trump's desire to reindustrialize
the United States all this has been going on even
as China has been stepping up its
military drills around the islands it
recently held two days of war games and
live fire drills nearby and it has been
developing new tools for its military
such as portable bridge ships that could
be used in a rapid invasion of Taiwan
how confident do we think Taiwan is
feeling right now about the likelihood
of America robustly coming to their aid
should they be attacked i mean can't
count it out trump is too unpredictable
for that can't exactly rely on it either
for exactly the same reason taiwan might
have taken some comfort from the fact
that it appeared as a country in its own
right on a list produced by Trump most
of the time it's not acknowledged as a
separate country so as not to upset
China mind you that may have been
tempered by the fact that it appeared on
the list because Trump was proposing to
slap tariffs on them something of a less
positive side in the meantime if the US
China trade war continues and neither
side backs down a lot of stuff is going
to get more expensive in the US apple
equipment for instance which is heavily
reliant on China for assembly and
manufacturing the situation is not
helped by the Trump team deploying its
usual crass language and range of
insults such as JD Vance telling Fox
News that America had been borrowing
money from Chinese peasants to buy the
things those Chinese peasants
manufacture china responded calling him
ignorant and impolite not exactly the
first time that's ever been pointed out
the takeaway is this trump believes the
United States is guaranteed an ongoing
future under him where it continues to
dominate the world and uses its power to
force everyone to accept unequal deals
that will keep it that way many believe
and Xiinping is surely one of them that
rather he is destroying America's power
by showing itself to be bullying and
selfish and unreliable and menace to its allies and impotent in the face of much more effective enemies china sees itself as the world power in waiting and it is prepared to all appearances for a conflict with the United States at whatever level that should be taken to which means that either Trump will eventually back down or at least stop escalating in response to push back against his initiatives or this whole thing is going to escalate more and more it is the Trump team and their MAGA supporters who apparently believe that geopolitics is a zero someum game so they only have themselves to blame if they are left with zero at the end of all of this in the meantime we get to sit back and watch it all unfolding with a sense of horrified fascination lucky old users
