马凯硕 印度制造业永远比不上中国

马凯硕：印度制造业永远比不上中国

Kishore Mahbubani: INDIA Will Never Beat China on Manufacturing
 2025年4月15日 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bvh7oncyYeM

为什么中国能够精准地向前迈进，而印度却在混乱中跌跌撞撞却依然生存下来？英语是印度的力量，还是殖民统治遗留下来的思想枷锁？当中国的中央集权与印度的民主混乱发生碰撞时，又会发生什么？这不仅仅是地缘政治分析，更是对两个崛起巨人的心理和哲学解构。每一分钟都充满了残酷的真相、被掩盖的历史和令人瞠目结舌的洞见。

印度 vs. 中国：混沌 vs. 控制模式 中国的成功得益于政府，你记录了这一点。印度的成功并非源于政府，所以有人对我感到厌烦，他说，拜托，基肖。如果情况恶化，会发生什么？我说会很混乱。他回答说，在印度，我们每天都处于混乱之中。1962年中印之间发生了边界战争。大多数印度人都知道这一点。所以，印度对中国有一定的迷恋，但中国对印度没有这种迷恋。这是一种不对称的关系。亚洲的未来将取决于一个大问题。中国和印度能否和睦相处？因为我们是这两个最大的社会。你即将观看的是科索尔·马布巴尼教授和复旦大学蒋炜炜教授之间的精彩对话。为什么印度仍然在英国人的头脑中思考？相信我，这场对话将彻底改变你对中印竞争和关系的看法。它充满了你不想错??过的深刻见解。现在我有一个有趣的问题要问你，你提到没错，印度裔美国人在美国取得了巨大的成功。但如果我们看看印度这个国家，我去过那里三次，我觉得如何真正让印度人民的潜力转化为现代化和成功的国家建设？从我中国人的角度来看，这是一个非常艰巨的挑战。呃，某种程度的社会改革，甚至革命，可能需要为中国的社会改革与印度的停滞找借口。我的中国偏见是，比如妇女解放、土地改革，当然是在宪法层面。印度已经废除了种姓制度，但种姓制度仍然渗透在社会中。那么，如何克服这种社会条件，才能真正调动印度人民的潜力，建设一个成功的国家？你说得对，中国在很多方面都领先于印度。呃，中国的大马士革人口（GMP）规模是印度大马士革人口的五六倍，规模要大得多。印度已经进行了土地改革，进行了大量的社会改革，印度必须赶上中国。但是让我解释一下为什么我认为印度会成功，因为我必须顺便告诉你，印度的社会与中国截然不同。我举个例子，他们说中国印度理工学院（IIT）和《印度海外天才——为什么不在国内？》的成功是因为它的政府，你也记录了这一点。印度的成功，尽管它的政府非常不同，但它仍然成功。印度很混乱，而且每天都很混乱。我给你讲个故事，在金融危机最严重的时候，我在印度给印度理工学院大会发表演讲，那是一次非常重要的大会，顺便说一下，印度理工学院是培养美国CEO最多的机构。印度理工学院，美国所有顶尖的CEO都来自印度科技界，所以我在金融危机最严重的时候参加了大会，和一群印度商人一起吃午饭，他说：“你们不担心大金融危机国家崩溃吗？但他们看起来并不担心。”所以我说，拜托，莫迪反西方的文化大革命难道不是你们担心的吗？所以有个人对我感到厌烦，他说，拜托，基肖，如果情况恶化，会发生什么？我说会很混乱，他回答说，在印度，我们每天都处于混乱之中，所以环境非常不同，但我可以告诉你，资本，你知道我是卡尔·L·马克思的学生，我在加拿大学习了一年。卡尔·马克思实际上出色地记录了资本主义如何真正创造了令人难以置信的社会变革，在欧洲，封建制度被资本主义摧毁了，对吧？正是工业革命将资本赋予了资本家，封建阶级失去了权力。同样的事情也发生在印度。你可以看到《纽约时报》头版有一篇非常精彩的报道，我在我的一本书中引用了它，讲述了你提到的印度最底层的贱民，他们就像手机和土地改革：谁赢了？从某种意义上说，他们没有希望，突然通过参与资本主义和市场，发展他们自己，阶级差异开始消失，所以从这个意义上说，我认为 KL Marx 提供了部分

Kishore Mahbubani: INDIA Will Never Beat China on Manufacturing!

 2025年4月15日 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bvh7oncyYeM

Why does China leap forward with precision while India stumbles through chaos and still somehow survives? Is English India’s strength or a leftover mental chain from colonial rule? And what happens when China’s centralized power collides with India’s democratic disarray? This is not just geopolitical analysis—it’s a psychological and philosophical deconstruction of two rising giants. Every minute is packed with hard truths, suppressed history, and jaw-dropping insight.

India vs China: The Chaos vs Control Model
china succeeds because of its government
and you documented this india succeeds
despite its government so one guy got
fed up with me he said come on Kishaw
what's going to happen if these things
get worse i said there'll be chaos he
replied in India we have chaos every day
that there was a border war fought between China and India in 1962 most Indians are aware of this so there is a certain obsession in India
about China but you don't have the obsession in China over India it's a
asymmetrical uh relationship the future of Asia will
depend on one big question can China and India get along
because we are the these are the two biggest societies you're about to watch
an incredible conversation between Professor Kosor Mabubani and Professor
Jeang Wei Weii from Foudan University Why India Still Thinks in British Minds
trust me this dialogue will completely change the way you think about the rivalry and relationship between China and India and it's packed with insights
you won't want to miss aging so now I got one interesting question for you and
you mentioned correctly the ethnic Indian-Americans were extremely successful in the United States yet if we look at the country of India itself I was there three times and I feel that how to really allow this potential of the Indian
people to be channeled into modernization and successful nation
building it's really daunting challenge from my Chinese point of view uh certain
stage of social reforms or even revolutions may be called for excuse for
China’s Social Reforms vs Indian Stagnation my Chinese bias such as women's liberation land reform of course at constitution level India has abolished the cast system yet still uh permating the society so how to overcome this kind of uh uh social conditions so that the potential of Indian people can be really mobilized
and to build a successful nation you're
absolutely right china is ahead of India
in many areas uh anyway China's GMP I
don't know you know this is five or six
times the size of India's G&P is much
bigger you've had land reform you've had
uh tremendous amount of social reforms
and India will have to catch up with
China but let me explain the why India I
think is going to make it because I must
tell you by the way that India is a very
very different society from China i'll
give you one example they say that China
IIT and Indian Genius Abroad—Why Not at Home?
succeeds because of its government and
you documented this india succeeds
despite its government very different but it succeeds india is chaos uh and on a
daily basis uh you have chaos and I'll
tell you one story at the height of the
financial crisis i was in India giving a
speech to the panit congress and that's
a very significant congress the Indian
Institutes of Technology by the way are
the one institution that have delivered
more American CEOs than any other
institution indian Institute of
Technology all the top CEOs in America
come from Indian technology so I was at
the congress speaking to this group at
the height of the financial crisis and I
was sitting with a group of Indian
businessmen at lunch and he said "Aren't
you worried big financial crisis
countries collapsing and they didn't
look worried." So I said come on aren't
Modi’s Cultural Revolution Against the West
you guys worried so one guy got fed up
with me he said come on Kishaw what's
going to happen if this things get worse
i said there'll be chaos he replied in
India we have chaos every
day so it's very different environment
but I can tell you that capital you know
I'm a student of KL Marx i spent a year
studying marks in Canada karl Marx
actually documented brilliantly how
capitalism really created incredible
social changes and in Europe feudalism
was destroyed by capitalism right it was
the industrial revolution that put
capital in the capitalists and the
feudal class lost power the same thing
is happening in India too and you can
see there was a uh fantastic uh page one
New York Times story which I cited in my
one of my books about how the the
untouchables as you mentioned the lowest
class in in India right who were sort of
Mobile Phones vs Land Reform: Who Wins?
in a sense had no hope suddenly by
participating in in capitalism and
markets growing themsel developing
themsel the class distinctions uh began
to go so in that sense I would say KL
Marx provides part of the answer and I
can tell you one new thing that is
happening in India which is quite
remarkable india is not as far ahead as China for
example on mobile payments but the
mobile phones are spreading in India and
the mobile phones are empowering
poor Indians and giving them access to
information knowledge connectivity that
they never had before so all these
positive trends will lead to the the
development of uh India i was reading
the other day the memoirs of your
India's former prime minister
China’s GDP Dominance: Just the Beginning
Nero i have the feeling that you know
when he encountered tough choices and
difficulties
he first thought of his schoolmates
classmates
Cambridge old school boy school or
whatever old uh club that reminds me a
constant comparison between China and
India I have many Indian friends they
always tell me English is India's
advantage over China
yeah I always say not necessary my
argument is this you know at the
technical level yes I agree with English
you can communicate better with the rest
of the world with the west with other
countries but at the strategic level you
know I always say you know fortunately
Denoping spent six years in France but
was not able to pick up the French
language Colonization of the Indian Elite’s Mind
so that allowed him to think in a
Chinese way you know when you have a a language from
another culture and which is really the language
of the India's political intellectual
elites are you worried about what sometimes we
call this colonization of mind
an example is when Deno Ping went to
Singapore he was deeply impressed with
the enormous progress Singapore has made
that was in 1978 chan was way behind but even at
that time then said we should do better
than Singapore eventually same with the United States
we should learn from United States but
don't always think eventually we should
do better than United States behind this
is he's from Chinese culture and he
Deng Xiaoping vs Nehru: Different Visions
knows very well this is a culture which
was much more advanced than the west for
so many hundreds and thousands of years
so this mentality always there we should
do better and we can do better but in
the case of India very often you are the
exception many many India scholars
politicians are met really think you
know if you're so happy that they accepted by the west well I I
got some good news for you India is changing good and uh you're
right uh in fact I've written about this
in my uh one of my first books can sting
that long after the political
decolonization of India happened in 1947
I think but the mental colonization of
India continued as you it and Indian
elites kept looking at London to get
Why Chinese Don’t Obsess Over India
answers for the future and didn't look
east but I would say in the last 2030
years the prime ministers have all been
saying look east act east and there has
been a reorientation and I would say
what makes uh prime minister Narendra
Modi the current prime minister of uh
India very very unusual is that in the
past the all the Indian prime ministers
would when they went to speak at
international forums they would speak in
English as you said and they would dress
and they would wear a jacket and tie
like you and me jacket and tie prime
Minister Narendra Modi and I heard him
in Davos in January this year never
speaks in English he speaks in Hindi he
says I will speak my language and you
never see Prime Minister Modi wearing a
jacket and tie he's always wearing uh an
Indian outfit so the what you call the
mental decolonization which is a
Can Asia Survive If China & India Clash?
critical process is happening also in
India but at the same time I would say
in defense of English uh especially for
young people uh I would say that don't
underestimate the usefulness of English
today because if you travel around the
world the one thing that you'll find
when you arrive in Argentina or South
Africa or Australia or Kazakhstan is
that if you were looking for one common
language to use most of the time most
people would speak uh English and as you
know when pilots fly across the sky the
language that they use uh when they get
air traffic clearance is English for
example so it is a very useful uh
language still to have and I wouldn't
discourage people from learning it but I
completely agree with what you said
about uh Mr duncia that we must aim to
match what the west has done and we must
now try to do better and in many areas
English Advantage or Strategic Weakness?
for example if you look at the
admissions into the top universities in
the world the Harvard the Yales the
Stanfords the Princetons you'll find
that Asian Asians including
Asian-Americans and non-American nations
are very competitive and when there is
no when there's no racial kota like in
the California Institute of Technology
Caltech 43% of the students are Asian so the
Asians have demonstrated very well that
today you put them in any situation they
can compete and they can uh do well
hello everybody um thank you Professor
Tangi and Professor Mubmani i think I'm
a poor commentator but I'm a good
student here um I gonna ask I'm not
going to comment on that but I can ask
some student questions yes I first of
2,000 Years of Peace—Can It Be Restored?
all I have to confess that um I'm a very
uh enthusiastic advocate for the collective
rights of Asia because I practiced this
myself i studied South Asia politics in
US as a Chinese student that's a very
weird combination but I did that i just
graduated from John Hopkins sites so um
so one question struck me when I was a
student that is why should we be so
optimistic about the future of the Asia
if China and India rise at the same time
will the odds of the conflict increase
or decrease that's my question and
recently I published one piece of um
article on the global times you know
that global times and Indian people keep
watching that and Chinese people also
read that closely i in the article I
said that China should re should help
India to uh industrialize its economy
because industrialization is the one of
Is China Ready to Help India Industrialize?
the most important element of the ch
China's rise if China can help India to
do that then both of them can benefit
tremendously from the process that's
that's my that was my argument but I got
attacked by a lot of people both Chinese
and Indians chinese people attacked me
because they they argued India is the
only the other 1 billion size uh economy
in the world if India get industrialized
where should China be and let me guess
the Indian the attack from the Indian
side is that why would we need Chinese
help to industrialize there we go china tried to colonize us
economically why should we let Chinese
people help us there's no point so
that's my question why you know will the
odds of conflict actually increased when
there's a collective rise of Asia now
the questions on China and India are
much more difficult to answer because I
Will India Accept Help or Call It Colonization?
don't know how many of you know this but
the relationship between China and India
is actually quite complicated
the most Chinese are not aware that
there was a border war fought between
China and India in 1962 most Indians are aware of this so
there is a certain obsession in India
about China but you don't have the
obsession in China over India it's a
asymmetrical uh relationship but at the same time the
former prime minister Manm Singh has
said the world is big enough for both
China and India to grow and I want to
make just one point on China and India
the future of Asia will depend on one
big question can China and India get along
because we are the these are the two
biggest societies china 1.4 billion
India 1.3 billion by 2050 India's
population will be bigger so if the two
most populous countries China and India
don't get along then Asia is in trouble
so it's very important that the young
people of India and the young people of
China make a huge effort to overcome the
recent untroubled history and remember
that before the period of western
colonial rule when the Asian countries
live side by side you had 2,000 years of
peace between China and India china and
India never fought a war for 2,000 years
so that long history is far more
important when you look ahead and we
should not be bothered about what
happened uh in the last 50 Yes