李光耀公共政策学院 2024 年思想节 历史终结时的中国冲击

李光耀公共政策学院 2024 年思想节 历史终结时的中国冲击

2024 年思想节——历史终结时的中国冲击

Festival of Ideas 2024- The China Shock at the End of History

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPL1NcM7i1Q

2024年10月10日

中美竞争很可能成为我们一生中不变的现象。一些观察家已经将这种大国竞争视为既定事实，并建议我们尽最大努力去适应它。然而，如果希望解决这一问题，我们需要了解这种竞争是如何发展的。曾经，世界致力于接触，而现在似乎只是大国之间的平衡。我们能说出中美竞争的根本原因是什么？在退出接触时应该发现哪些标志？我们的小组成员从不同的角度回答了这些问题，并询问如何才能摆脱这种僵局。了解有关思想节的更多信息 https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/news-events... 如有疑问，请通过电子邮件联系 LKYSPP 活动团队：[e-mail]

什么是思想节

当今世界陷入了多重危机，威胁着共同繁荣和进步的基础。我们比以往任何时候都更需要亚洲各国和国际社会的良好治理。思想很重要。它们必须以研究为基础，并传达给决策者和广大公众，以带来变革。

自二十年前成立以来，这一直是李光耀公共政策学院的使命。值此里程碑之际，我们邀请您与我们的教职员工、学生和合作伙伴一起参与 2024 年创意节，探讨重塑世界的变革性思想和问题。

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好的，让我们开始吧，大家早上好，欢迎来到连友公共政策学院 Tima 校区，欢迎参加本次创意节，这是该节日的两个开幕式之一，该节日是连友学院每隔一年举办一次的为期一周的活动，节日的目的是与 BK Tima 地区的当地社区进行接触，但在新加坡，更广泛地说，是与世界其他地方的接触，在节日上，我们欢迎来自社区初级学院的学生，同时也欢迎来自世界各地的世界知名学者和思想领袖，该节日是关于我们这个时代的伟大思想和最紧迫问题的交流，这是学校展示我们思想和博士学位的机会硕士生展示他们的作品，我们学校的教职员工和同事，以及来自世界各地的同事，都在进行对话，这都是学校使命的一部分，我们激励变革者和领导者，帮助改善我们周围人的福祉，并进一步推动这一领域，我们通过良好治理的经验帮助改变亚洲，今天上午的会议是关于历史末期的中国冲击，我们将做的是，我们将有四个人发表一系列开场白，然后，我们将与我们四个人以及观众进行对话，我不会重复您已经在宣传册中知道的信息，这些信息将您带到了这里，但现在我想欢迎陈鹤妮教授、何淑仪教授、李申先生上台，请和我一起欢迎我的同事上台，我们将按字母顺序开始，每个小组成员都发表简短的开场白，讨论我们正在经历的中美竞争以及我们未来的应对措施，大使教授陈教授

谢谢大家，早上好，女士们先生们，我希望我的发言简短些，我不知道我有点混乱，但呃，自从历史结束以来，也就是自从冷战结束以来，我们已经经历了三次中国冲击，第一次冲击是中国迅速而持续的崛起，特别是自从它加入世贸组织以来，经济上首先对中国产生了影响，因为它带来了巨大的转变，也对世界其他国家产生了巨大的地缘政治和地缘经济影响，我认为美国和欧洲从未预见到中国的崛起意味着什么，就中国成为世界工厂而言，这对每个人都有好处，直到它对每个人都不利呃，你知道拿破仑说过，让中国沉睡，当她醒来时，她将震撼世界，而 Lewan Yu 事实上，我在 1980 年的 Feton 广场集会上看过他的一盘旧录音带，说你知道中国，这是 1980 年中国加入世界四个现代化两年后，等等和 T XA平访问新加坡时，他看到了新加坡发生的事情，他说，看看新加坡，中国人在做什么，看看它的发展，然后他在同一次演讲中还说，中国今天正在从美国购买波音飞机，从英国购买三叉戟飞机，两到三代中国将建造自己的飞机，一代飞机大约需要 25 年或 20 年，所以

40 50 年中国将建立自己的游戏绝对正确你刚刚看到 C919 的揭幕所以这是中国冲击但让我再换一种方式说一遍你知道 1980 年的第一家商店那是现代化刚过两年所以它确实算数中国正在寻找出路它在世界 GDP 中的份额在 2001 年是 2.7%我认为在加入世贸组织一年后它在世界经济中的份额是 3.9%美国是 31.3%欧洲 31 21.3%日本 13.9%2023 年这包括中国一直在经历的一些问题中国在世界经济中的份额是 16.9%美国从 2001 年的 31% 变为 2023 年的 26.1%欧洲是17.5%也下降了日本占世界经济的 4%中国和欧洲欧洲作为一个整体中国作为一个单一经济体争夺第二位作为份额世界经济，近年来，由于中国所面临的困难，我认为其在世界经济中的份额有所下降，因此美国目前稳定在 25-26% 左右，这意味着冲击从 1980 年的 2.7% 降至现在的 17% 左右，还有其他数据，我可以告诉你贸易经济的份额，但我没有时间，中国带来的第二个冲击是，中国的崛起引发了中美之间激烈的竞争，这是冷战结束以来从未见过的，显然，这是关于世界秩序的主导地位，首先是贸易战，然后是技术战，然后是投资战，然后是技术战，你知道军事竞争等等，正如乔治所说，很快就会是一场热战，但这是不同的战争，但它关乎世界体系的主导地位，关乎价值观，关乎软实力，最近一年左右，谁制定了世界秩序的规则变得更加清晰，现在这是结构性的因此，这种竞争不会很快结束，无论美国投票给卡马拉·哈里斯还是唐纳德·特朗普，这种竞争都不会结束，无论是更可预测还是完全不可预测，那些说中国应该坚持和平崛起的人，我认为他们错了，因为即使他们说，中国说我们相信和平崛起，也没有人会相信中国，事实上，当我在 1990 年代和 2000 年代初在美国时，美国人对我说，哦，是的，他们说和平崛起，这是第一阶段，等到中国变得更强大，他们还会坚持和平崛起吗，所以没有意义，你知道他们不能隐藏灌木丛下的光芒，他们不能说他们相信和平崛起，第三个冲击是中国经济的快速下滑和困难，我们看到中国增长如此迅速，所以在过去几年里，当我们看到中国经济表现如此糟糕时，这也是一个震惊，天哪，这是中国，在美国，有分析人士说，中国巅峰，中国从现在开始会下滑和走下坡路那么，真正的趋势是什么？中国，这是中国发展所遭遇的第三次冲击，它能够如此迅速地崛起，但突然间，一切似乎都如此迅速地瓦解，最重要的是，我们听说了人口下降和人口老龄化，请注意，全世界都在老龄化，全世界都在下降，你知道人口统计学家说，2080 年世界人口将达到峰值，我们所有人的人口都会下降，所以不仅仅是中国在下降，但我认为人口下降、人口老龄化和经济放缓给投资者和中国带来了挑战，所以你如何了解中国，如果你读金融时报、纽约时报，中国是否完全失败了，这些天中国没有好消息传出，但让我告诉你，有些报道很少有人注意到，即使有人注意到，也只是随风而逝，那就是，第一，中国的城市陷入困境，第二，第三，第四，第五，中国的城市表现还不错，你知道不是所有的城市，但很多城市现在都表现不错，嗯，我有一些来自中国的数据这是 ja 关于中国的出版物，它显示这些二三线城市的零售额正在上升，你知道不是全部，但如果你拿 36 个城市来说，其中三个城市落后了，其余的都在上升，二线三线城市，我有这里的数字，如果你想要的话，参考日期是 2024 年 9 月 9 日，学者年，这是你的参考，认为中国查找数据，你知道，而且增长也不错，如果你说哦，认为中国，她亲中国，让我引用经济学人的数据，经济学人在 2024 年 6 月 6 日有一个问题，你知道，移到北京，你知道，要小心二线和二线和三线城市，但你看它是一篇文章，没有人把事情放在一起，但嗯，我没有时间丹尼，我昨天才看到这个，我懒得把它放到幻灯片里，你知道，但二线和三线城市的经济一般都是数字显示的他们都在增长

这些城市的增长率接近 7.78%，相当于 6.5沈楚还行，但
北京和上海低于全国平均水平，不是广州
但北京和上海还行，而且人口
变化中，人口在增长，武汉等地人口在减少，人口减少停止了，昌只增长了0.06，所以事情正在向二三线城市转移，那里有一些动向，这是有道理的，因为中国现在的增长模式强调先进制造业和绿色经济，其中很多都向二三线城市发展，所以人们也去那里，所以我是中国文章说的，
人们在二三线城市消费，因为在一线城市，所有的房地产一线城市的钱都与房地产挂钩，价格如此之高，然后崩盘，你有科技创业、科技人才、金融人才等，他们被如此束缚，所有这些悲伤的故事，人们都去一线城市，在那里得到大部分反馈，但这并不意味着中国就像那样，一些怀疑论者说，先进制造业、人工智能等和绿色经济取代或创造与过去的基础设施、房地产基础设施等相同的增长
电子商务可能不会，所以它正在放缓一点，但它不是平缓的，也不是不增长的，这是中国，所以我想说的是，这是另一种叙述，我们应该看看中国不是一个无望的案例，它正在改变，显然模式正在改变，所以我不知道最后会发生什么，我最好快点结束，因为我超出了我的时间，所以问题是，一、中国会复苏吗
二、如果中国经济走弱，这是否会减轻美国和中国之间的竞争？我个人不这么认为，因为有些人在美国说，如果经济下滑，你为什么不把它拿出来，你知道，这样你就会强大起来，让中国落后 5 到 10 年，所以问题是，我们是否正在走向一个脱钩的世界，这会是一场冷战吗？我将让 Selina 来谈论这个问题，但我认为我们必须记住，我一直说美国是一个有韧性的国家，不要低估美国，同样，我会说中国是一个有韧性的国家，不要低估中国，当中国经济再次复苏时，你会发现人们蜂拥回到香港，蜂拥回到中国，因为世界，欧洲，中国和美国都不想错过任何行动，那么在这个充满争议的时代，中小国家应该扮演什么角色呢？我想说，如果美国自己不认为开战不符合他们的利益，我们就无能为力，如果他们觉得美国和中国觉得开战不符合他们的利益，小国和中型国家可以做些什么，我们都在努力搭建桥梁，为会议创建论坛，现在有很多这样的事情正在发生，但自从旧金山峰会以来，美国人说两国关系存在缺陷，如果问美国人，他们说两国关系已经稳定下来，我和中国同行谈过，他们说两国关系已经稳定下来了我认为他们希望它会稳定下来，你知道，呃，但是杰克·沙利文说，我们现在在巴厘岛，辛平总统告诉拜登，拜登总统，中国不寻求改变美国内政，也无意挑战或取代美国，这也在旧金山重复了一遍，美国根本不相信这一声明，所以我，我认为会有这种来回的推挤，我们应该在小时间里工作，我想说小论坛，你不能有一个十年的战略和计划，你如何将你带到这里，因为建立信心是一个循序渐进的措施，即使这样，这也是很难的，我的最后一点是，一旦我们能够建立一座桥梁，你就会看到许多国家正在出现，我称之为进入第三空间的国家，印度是其中之一，印度尼西亚，我认为新加坡正在努力在你想要建立良好关系的地方，你可以有结盟，印度在四方印度太平洋战略上有结盟，但它不是排他性的，它仍然与俄罗斯有关系，所以这个第三空间在发展时，我认为帮助调和双方之间的竞争，谢谢
非常感谢 hchi 嗯，为我们的会议做了如此出色的开场，你谈到了三个冲击，你谈到了中国的地理再平衡，然后你给了我们一些乐观的前景，非常细致入微地讨论了可能的战略，我现在想邀请何教授继续谈话，非常感谢，我可以在这里发言吗？是的，当然，我很好，谢谢爸爸，嗯嗯，谢谢你来到这里，很高兴能参加这个小组，嗯，真的很荣幸嗯嗯，我很高兴我实际上是在陈大使之后发言，因为她的很多重新马克引起了我的共鸣，也因为我想，嗯，你知道她
谈到了我们所知的中美竞争中的系统性或结构性观点，我真正想要的是研究国内驱动因素，特别是我对
中国的角度感兴趣，所以我正在寻找，我将谈谈这场竞争的中国视角，但你知道，嗯，我的意思是标题是历史终结中的中国冲击，所以正确地谈论中国是正确的，嗯，但你知道，我认为陈大使对
中国冲击进行了很好的剖析，三次冲击，但让我谈一下历史的终结，我有一些你知道
观众中的学生，如果我在教室里，我会在历史的最后剖析和解开这些术语，你们中的一些人可能知道也可能不知道，它在不同的圈子里被广泛使用，但历史的终结是实际上，这是由弗朗西斯·福山写的一本书推广的，那是在 1992 年，就在苏联解体和欧洲共产主义结束之后，所以它被称为历史的终结和最后的人，现在这个想法，历史的终结实际上不是福山自己提出的，他推广了它，但这是一个西方哲学家提出的概念，特别是德国哲学家黑格尔，好吧，现在历史之手的想法不是世界末日，只是要明确一点，它与世界末日不同，它是历史的终结，从某种意义上说，人类的进步是这样的，在历史的尽头，将有一个政治制度或意识形态占上风，所以这就是《历史终结时的中国冲击》这个标题的背景，这是你想出的一个非常棒的想法，丹尼，顺便说一句，我真的很喜欢它，嗯，我们可以讨论历史的终结，fugama 的优点，或者他的观点的缺点，稍后再讨论，但让我快速进入我的评论，我的评论实际上围绕三个主要问题展开，第一个问题是中国外交政策的驱动因素是什么，第二个问题是中国想要什么样的国际秩序或国际或世界秩序，你知道这是什么意思，中国的野心是什么，这些野心是什么，中国的野心是什么，美国不愿意将其等同于中国的野心，这对我们其他人来说意味着什么，对世界其他国家和我们的未来意味着什么，好吧，让我看看第一个驱动因素，第一个问题，中国外交政策的驱动因素，我认为误解和误解以及中美之间缺乏这种沟通的关键之一是，有时我认为他们不太了解对方的国内政治，我们实际上真的需要要理解这种竞争，就需要从中国内部寻找这些驱动因素，现在我们首先要问的是，中国国内的优先事项是什么，我认为，当总统 C 和 2012 年 2013 年上任时，他关注的是社会经济和中国共产党的发展方向，我认为他们看到了一些他不太满意的事情，他周围的人也不太满意，所以他进行了三次改革，他想改革三件事，第一件是改革中国经济，现在这是什么意思呢？中国不喜欢完全由市场力量驱动的自由经济，我认为他们认识到市场力量的必要性，但他们不希望它完全由市场力量驱动，它不喜欢这种市场力量带来的不平衡发展和不平等，所以他们不看西方，他们看西方，他们说你知道这不是我们想要什么，我们不想要这种不平等，我们不想要这种不平衡的发展，我们想要更稳定、更平等的东西，因此我们有共同繁荣这个术语，好吧，这就是为什么在某种意义上，你看到东南政府和他周围的人瞄准私营企业和公司，他们已经变得太大、太强大了，所以他们必须控制这些企业，这样他们就会变得太强大，以至于他们会挑战中国共产党或中国政府，我认为这是关键点，中国在经济中想要的另一件事是双循环经济，这是你现在经常听到的另一件事，这意味着什么，这真的意味着中国经济的封闭，但更重要的是自力更生的愿望，我认为这种自力更生的愿望早于 2016 年的贸易战，早于 2016 年的中美竞争贸易战，所以我们需要明白，国内的首要任务是重塑中国经济，第二要务是重塑中国社会你知道，海军领导层和他的团队上台后，看到了一个他认为正在恶化的社会，一个意识形态不够纯粹的社会，它想要阻止西方思想，呃，它想要阻止自由主义资本主义思想，并恢复意识形态的纯粹性，你觉得这里有一些东西，比如社会再平衡，嗯，现在的社会信用体系，为什么我们有这些，本质上是为了控制社会，中国人通过使用技术控制社会，这非常了不起，他们已经枯萎了，嗯，但基本上它创造了一个与世界其他地方不同的社会，以阻止中国领导层不想要的因素，现在，中国共产党进行的第三次改造是再次改造中共本身，感觉是中共已经迷失了方向，它失去了意识形态的纯粹性，在西方意义上的自由主义道路上走得太远了，对吧，所以他们都有这些反腐运动，意识形态正确，强调意识形态正确，正确的思想，所以这三个混合在一起，现在为什么这三个混合在一起，为什么这些优先事项本质上归结为一件事，那就是提高合法性，确保中共政权的生存，需要提高合法性和政权的生存，党推动中国的外交政策，所以中国的外交政策本质上是
在一个非常广泛的计划中，是为了确保两件事，确保中共的合法性，让世界对不同形式的政府来说是安全的，不仅仅是民主政府，而且让世界对独裁或专制政府来说也是安全的，现在这是第一个问题的第一个呃呃答案，现在第二个问题是中国想要什么样的世界秩序，现在中国在我看来有一个哈拉尔的世界观，他认为大国统治世界，共同管理
管理世界，我们称之为大国管理，大国管理世界，因此你知道你看到嗯
总统提出了一个想法G2，对，奥巴马政府时期与美国的G2，这个想法现在已经不复存在了，但这个想法是，两个最大的国家，美国和中国，领导着世界其他国家并管理事务，所以它真正想要的最终是与中国平起平坐，它希望自己的权威被承认为合法，它希望建立一个拥有更大发言权的世界秩序，它希望建立一个与其规模相称的世界秩序，现在它的主要不满是美国及其盟友没有给予它应有的地位、尊重和地位，因为它的政治制度和意识形态不同，这是他的主要不满，好吧，现在嗯，我实际上不像陈大使，我不认为中国想要呃全球主导地位，我不确定这是否是你的意思，嗯，但我同意，有这场争夺全球主导地位的斗争，但我不确定中国本身是否真的想要全球主导地位，我认为中国并不寻求推翻国际秩序，它希望适应国际秩序，适应国际秩序，适应其权利，承认其与美国平等，这是平等的理念，使独裁体制能够被接受，它希望承认中共的合法性，并有权存在和统治中国，因此，中国是否想要全球主导地位真的是一个非常大的问题，我认为它知道它还没有完全实现，还没有，它可能现在想要与美国平等，并在未来 10 到 20 年内有 G2 的想法，但之后会发生什么，这是个问号，谁知道呢，嗯，我认为，为了了解中国在全球野心方面的发展方向，观察国内政治的发展非常重要，因此，任何研究中国政策的人，美国与中国的竞争，都需要研究中国国内政治，这是一个困难的部分，理解和试图了解中国国内政治的情况现在非常困难，因为这个系统变得比以前更加不透明了，嗯，在地区层面上，中国想要什么？我认为这就是中国想要的地区主导地位，我的意思是，它的偏好是亚洲没有其他竞争的权力中心，好吧，现在要非常清楚，这是所有大国都做的事情，这不是中国独有的，中国想要一个可以主导的地区，这不是中国独有的，所有大国都这样做，你看到美国在拉丁美洲这样做，你看到俄罗斯在欧洲东欧这样做，你看到印度在南亚这样做，这是大国非常正常的行为，所以所有大国都希望在亚洲建立所谓的势力范围它所在的地区是最接近的，所以它的利益不会受到竞争对手的负面影响。它希望该地区考虑到它的利益和前言，而不是站在我们制定政策的 Ral 一边，所以这让我想到了第三个问题，所有这些发展对中国野心和我们有什么影响，你知道，抵制和不愿接受中国想要的东西，嗯，美国不想承认中国的地位和共产党存在的权利，以及拥有另一种形式的政府，我想说的是，我们实际上不太可能看到回到旧冷战，旧冷战，联盟和集团非常明确，你知道谁在谁的阵营中，他们知道谁在谁的阵营中，好吧，我的意思是，有一群不结盟运动试图这样做，但他们通常倾向于某一方，现在，在某种程度上，这种联盟和集团的明确实际上产生了秩??序和稳定，因为我们确切地知道彼此的立场，但是相反，我们很可能会看到联盟和伙伴关系不断变化，因为包括美国在内的地区国家与中国有着深厚的经济联系，现在，这种新兴秩序和不断变化的联盟的流动性意味着存在更多的不确定性和危险，因为误解和误判可能会导致我们陷入新的冷战，那么我们是否处于一场新的冷战中呢？我认为陪审团对此还没有定论，没有明确的答案，有相似之处，也有不同之处，但如果发生核战争，它将不同于过去的战争，现在的世界不可能是那样，我们可以看到，你知道美国和中国需要互相交谈，有一段时间他们没有说太多话，但他们最终必须在旧金山交谈，所以美国和中国不互相交谈会很困难，就像在铁幕时代一样，冷战的字面意思是你知道你们不会互相交谈，嗯，所以你不太可能看到那种旧冷战的回归，但我们可能会有一些新的东西嗯，关于这个，现在让我以一个更乐观的基调结束我的演讲，实际上我同意 Chanc 大使最后关于中小国的观点，现在中小国可以提供压舱物，因为大国可以去战斗，但我们可以提供最好的。好的，中小国已经走到一起，确保 Glo Global 供应链的稳定性，在技术方面制定规则，以及在数字经济伙伴关系等方面所做的许多其他事情。我认为我们正在尽最大努力，我们应该继续这样做，谢谢，谢谢 Selena 的精彩陈述，你告诉我们，是什么从内部推动了中国的发展，中国想要什么，中国对秩序的愿景是什么，以及这与美国等大国的设想一致和不一致，然后你告诉我们一些充满希望的前进方向，以及中小国可以做什么，你告诉了我们你对可能出现的情况的看法，非常感谢，我现在想转向李先生，他将与我们分享他的观点，我认为他一生都在政府工作，一生都在与中国打交道。李先生，请您发言，非常感谢，您好，您能听到我说话吗，是的，早上好，大家好，我很高兴参加这次小组讨论，如果丹尼告诉我谁会是观众，我可能会重新考虑是否接受这个邀请，因为这个房间里有这么多中国专家和分析师，我以中国学生的身份发言，我的学习之旅始于 1997 年我被派往 SoJO 工业园区，所以已经访问中国近 30 年了，仅今年一年，我就第九次访问中国，正如我告诉 NL 的那样，在本周的时间里，我将进行第十次旅行，所以我会与政府领导人打交道嗯，企业可以分为国有企业和私有企业，所以我在新加坡和中国都和他们打交道，所以我会从那段经历或那个限制来讲，你知道，就我的角度来看，我的发言将分为三个部分，第一部分是关于中国在 2010 年成为第二大经济体，我们都知道，中国在 1979 年实际上开始了改革开放，在 2018 年，当我在中国改革开放 40 周年纪念活动上发言时，我说，中国是人类历史上最了不起的经济历史，你知道他们拥有人类历史上最了不起的经济发展，我认为你找不到另一个相似之处，所以我认为在 80 年代，它在 90 年代增长了 9.7%增长了
10.5%，在 21 世纪，它又增长了 10.5%，尽管在 21 世纪 10 年代增长放缓，
但增长了 7%，但你知道，在那 40 年里，增长率仍然很惊人，所以当我 1997 年从美国来到苏乔时，在那之前 5 年，我说
哇，世界上的资本主义经济，你什么都看不到，直到你去中国，你知道当时中国对所有人都是自由的，只要你有这个想法，法律也没有说不可以，你就可以这样做，所以对于那些观看
戏剧的人来说，F 对，正是那种动物精神，你知道能量被动员到社会各个层面，所以当然，在那 40 年里，我认为关键的驱动力真的是改革开放，我想我们很多人都知道新加坡是如何参与其中的，当时李显龙总理于 1976 年访问中国，沙坪坝于 78 年访问中国，随后，我们的总理高金，他卸任国务院后被任命为经济顾问，就两件事提供建议，即经济特区和旅游发展，所以在那 40 年里，中国做了很多改革是自由，人们发挥聪明才智、创造力和智慧，体制允许这样做，所以你会听到这样一句话，致富是一件光荣的事，那真是一个黄金时期，所以我来来回回地经历了那种能量，在我的工作中，无论是公务员，还是后来在政治领域，再到私营部门，另一个驱动因素是中国在 2010 年加入世贸组织，有趣的是，那一年我还被任命为上海市事务委员会的顾问，所以你知道为什么我们所有在中国以外的人都担心中国廉价产品可能会进入我们的市场，然后因此扼杀我们在中国的主题，而另一方面，他们都担心外国高质量的产品进入摧毁他们的私营部门，所以这是一次非常有趣的经历，但剩下的就是历史了，我认为中国成为了世界工厂，拥有最大、最广泛的制造能力，我想那些使用苹果手机的人会知道，这体现了中国供应链的实力和全面性，好吧，那么我们进入第二个时期，如果你仔细观察，从2000年到2023年，也就是去年，我认为在这个时期，中国、牙山和东南亚在经济和贸易方面已经走得更近了，在投资方面，许多中国公司已经开始将他们的劳动密集型产业迁移到越南、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、马来西亚等地，因为要利用AG相对便宜的劳动力成本，所以它适用于非常简单的家居用品、家具、服装纺织品，然后是白色家电的组装，另一个原因是，牙山比世界其他地区享有关税，因此通过将部分生产转移到牙山，中国自己的公司享受关税税率的差异，可以说，你知道美国是北美市场，2000 年和 20223 年这段时期的另一个驱动因素是跨国公司的中国加一战略，在新冠疫情之后，跨国公司看到了中国的情况，尤其是在上海全面封锁之后，这一点变得非常明显，所以公司说，我们再也不能把所有的供应链都放在一个地方了，我们最好分散风险，跨国公司告诉他们的供应商，他们的一些供应商是中国公司，说嘿，你知道，如果你不从中国分散业务，我就不会给你，我不是，我只给你
明年订单的 50% 或 70% 或任何其他数字，所以中国的加一战略让亚山受益，你会从各种报道中看到，越南是主要受益者，但不仅仅是越南、马来西亚、印度尼西亚
柬埔寨，当然在一定程度上还有洛杉矶等等，当然，这一切的背后
一直都有一种一带一路倡议，你知道，当中国想要出口他们的基础设施建设，知道如何
不仅出口到亚山国家，而且出口到
世界各个发展阶段，他们真的需要大量的基础设施，许多国家没有港口，没有发电厂，没有合适的道路，你知道，没有铁路等等，这些都是可持续经济发展的关键因素，所以
中国非常适合这条道路，顺便说一句，当巴西的钱从中国流向世界其他地区时，新加坡设法占领了大约三分之一资本流动，所以这对我们有好处，我想说的第三点是关于中国和东盟关系的长期前景，我认为，在和赛琳娜都谈到了中美关系，这是一个非常大的图景，但更贴近国内，你知道，我对新加坡非常感兴趣新加坡和牙山与中国的关系将继续发展，我认为第一点是，两年前，牙山已成为中国最大的培训合作伙伴，超过美国和欧盟，所以，这非常重要，中国成为牙山最大的培训合作伙伴，这是历史，对吧，我的意思是，不仅是牙山，还有世界上其他 120 个国家，但牙山成为中国最大的贸易伙伴，这非常重要，我认为这种趋势将继续下去，尽管中国经济放缓，因为我们有这个互补性，牙山的人均收入从 1.5 美元到新加坡的 85,000 美元，所以这是一个很大的范围，而中国大约是 13,000 美元，所以，牙山超过 23 个，所以就中国而言，他们不要与亚洲国家竞争，事实上，在很多领域，他们在技术和供应链方面都处于领先地位，但鉴于世界是双向的，市场正在建立保护主义政策，因此，中国企业本身，而不仅仅是跨国公司，必须找到在中国以外分销供应链的方法，才能继续生存，所以两个月前，我接待了来自中国的家居协会代表团，我记得该协会的会长说，你要么走出去，要么死，所以这是它的押韵，中文更好，意思是你不这样做，因为对于这个行业来说，他们与房地产市场息息相关，所以他们的订单突然减少了50%，然后我的意思是，很多供应商，你知道家居，生态系统中有很多相关行业，所以如果他们不走出去，他们就会死，这就是它有多严重，所以他们走出去，新加坡将从中受益因为我们无法进行低成本制造，但我们可以成为他们的总部，调动资源，成为一个指挥中心，当然，其他的也是如此，正如辛吉和赛琳娜之前所说，地缘政治动态将开始推动许多企业思考，只要我们保持中立，对所有各方友好，并为各方所接受，所以我个人认为中国是一个真正长期的因素，毕竟，就像辛吉所说的那样，中国占世界经济的60%，它就在你家门口，距离最近的入境点只有三个半小时的路程，不像美国，距离太平洋对面有14个小时的路程，所以事实上我们所有人都会感受到这一点，因为我们看到新加坡有很多中餐馆，它们强调不同的区域美食街道上，你会看到中国品牌涌入，时尚品牌，运动品牌
如果你去中国，现在他们都是中国品牌，化妆品
只是广告，就像法国和日本的一样华而不实
你知道，丝芙兰报道说，在中国关闭门店，所以我认为中国品牌都会出现，所以如果你问我如何看待世界，但你知道在新加坡，我们太小了，我们无法影响世界事件，我们无法影响世界大国，我们可以进行对话，我们可以成为一个平台，但他们也希望拥有自己的平台和对话渠道，所以有一句中国谚语，在这种情况下，有点像
[音乐]知道意思是我们不能逆流而上，我们只能顺流而下，听起来有点像泰国人，但我们发现，我们，我们，我们，我们找到了平静的平静和和平，在这种流动中，并试图以此谋生，所以这就是我的评论，非常感谢，李先生，非常精彩地将我们带回到阿山如何与中国打交道，以及您如何知道未来的前景和挑战，嗯，我现在要谈谈，我将尝试加入对话，也许以我意想不到的方式，我们听到了中国的优先事项，我们听到了中国的观点，我们听到了阿山如何看待这个问题，让我现在为美国辩护，最近我写了一篇文章，叫做《美国应该如何停止对成为第一的痴迷》，为此，我遭到了许多反美人士的猛烈攻击，我不是，我想从美国的角度来辩论这个问题，因为试图思考中国冲击的一部分是试图思考我们与中国的竞争，这需要两个纠结没有单掌鼓掌的声音我们必须尝试理解双方参与此次接触你们中的许多人会记得许多人认为我们与中国的竞争的一种方式是通过一个非常简单的图表该图表是美国的国内生产总值和中国国内生产总值，美国经济的规模和中国经济的规模，我们所有人都已经熟悉了中国经济如何赶上美国，如果你不想考虑经济，你可以从军事规模、核弹头数量的角度来考虑，你可以把它看作是衡量其他类型权力参与的指标，与世界其他地区在每一个维度上，中国都在赶上美国，这有什么不对的，从美国的角度来看，这张图表显示，敌对霸权有可能在美国、亚太地区、太平洋地区、中国、美国、欧洲等地区占据优势，世界上的每个人，从人口数量、经济活力、政治参与等方面来看，这部分地区都被认为是世界经济中心，很快就会成为潜在的政治中心。发生这种情况将严重限制美国的行动自由和他们能够采取的战略范围，因此观察家们会看一些想象中的理论点，有一个阈值，并说当中国达到美国实力的 80% 或 90% 或任何其他水平时，这就是危险点，这是一个关于历史末期中国冲击的简单故事，中国的崛起带来了这一点，正如大使所说，没有人相信钟潘对中国和平崛起的阐述，它的结构是这将是一个挑战，所以和其他人一样，我喜欢用简单的故事来理解世界，这是一个非常简单的故事，无论彼此相比如何，但即使我觉得这个故事有点太简单了，作为一种思考历史末期中国冲击的方式，作为一种思考美国中国竞争的方式，所以让我用剩下的三分半钟来讨论三点，这三点非常简单，我想谈谈世界历史的一个循环，第一点我想说的是这个周期的上升部分，你可以把它看作是美国和中国世界其他国家的接触，然后我想谈谈不是中国顶峰的问题，我不是对中国的悲观主义者，我认为中国经济将继续增长，但这个周期的顶峰会让我们走向脱离，国际关系学者称之为平衡，我们其他人可能认为是竞争，这是时代，这个周期的低迷期，这是中国冲击的时代，中国冲击把我们带到了今天的境地，然后我的第三点是我们前进的道路是什么，因为这个小组的所有同事都说他们都给了你一个前进的道路的愿景，我也想给你一个愿景，所以回到接触时期，为什么世界历史经历了这个周期的上升部分，在1980年至2010年之间，美国和中国以建设性的接触方式相互打交道，他们是否考虑过不管是不是那样，他们就是这么做的，所以
他们最终无意中进行了建设性的接触
那个时代的伟大主题有两个，一个是地缘政治，另一个是国际经济。地缘政治说，世界在政治上正在趋同，很快每个人都会拥有相同的政治制度，这就是我的同事赛琳娜所说的 hego
和福山对历史终结的描述，即只有一个连贯的政治结构，世界上所有的国家，无论地理起源如何，最终都会趋同，这给了美国很大的希望，随着中国通过其成熟的行为而成长，中国会变得像他们一样，不会有意识形态的对抗，不会有地缘政治差异，每个人都会有相同的政治，经济学是那个伟大想法的镜子，经济学说，你应该追求经济效率和比较优势，中国提供了廉价的劳动力，愿意进行工业化，这与世界其他国家的愿望相辅相成，特别是美国，这导致了相互联系无意的凝聚力 联合 全球政治和经济 国际贸易是双赢的 中国的增长是双赢的，因为地缘政治趋同 但后来发生了一些事情 我们达到了那个顶峰，而那个顶峰不在中国 80% 的美国 那个顶峰发生在 2010 年 全球金融危机爆发两年后 地缘政治态度从接触转向竞争 世界从联合转向分裂 一些转变是意识形态的 中国在发展过程中没有表现出政治趋同 它仍然坚定地坚持马克思列宁主义 事实上，根据我的同事 Selena 的说法 这就是今天中国发展的动力 因此，西方许多人认为地缘政治趋同的错误想法令人沮丧和失望 然后作为一名经济学家，对我来说中国冲击
中国冲击是中国经济在制造业和出口方面变得如此强大，以至于世界其他国家都为之震惊，在美国，你看到的是钢铁工人、汽车制造业工人环顾四周，说中国卖给我们钢铁汽车、中国出口的其他产品、电脑、纺织品，你能提到的所有东西的价格，相对于美国制造的其他所有东西，美国从加拿大或墨西哥进口的其他所有东西，都是低的，对于经济学家来说，这就是中国冲击，它们在美国引起了深深的不安全感，当你把某样东西的价格定得比我能做的低时，你就是在抢走我的生意，你在偷走我的工作，你在摧毁我的行业，通过这种方式，你把曾经繁荣的美国中产阶级社区变成了鬼城，不仅中国在政治上没有融合，让弗兰克·福山、西莫·利佩特、比尔·克林顿和其他一系列思想家大失所望，中国在经济上挑战美国，这种挑战并不是美国独有的每一个生产与中国竞争的商品的社会
你们现在都处于危险之中，在这种情况下，经济学家应该做的是说别担心
这意味着你们在制造钢铁汽车方面效率不高，我会教你们编程电脑
大约 15 年后，你们都会成为优秀的电脑程序员，你们将再次能够与中国竞争，这是一个没有人相信的故事，所以中国的巨大冲击是先涨后跌
问题是我们未来该怎么做，这就是我的结束语
目标显然不是
每个大国都只是尽力做到最好
中国想要发展，它应该发展，让人民摆脱贫困
美国不想让人民感到不安全，也不应该这样，我们需要
能够想出一种方法来解决这个问题，所以我们在世界其他国家的问题是不要偏袒
因为每个人都是对的，问题是我们应该做什么
所以让我以我们可以做的三件聪明的事情来结束，记住我说过这一切的开始都是无意的呃无意的合作我们应该回到那个问题上我们应该尝试找到无意合作的领域让我给出两个好吧无意的合作意味着你心中有一个目标这与这里发生的事情无关但在追求那个目标的过程中你最终会合作因为现在考虑到紧张局势全面合作是不可能的我们不能到处告诉世界哦请合作因为否则我们会死我们在一条驶向冰山的船上如果不合作我们都会沉没这不管用你必须寻找各国可以再次无意合作的方法这里有两个一个是全球气候危机世界上每个国家都感到受到中国生产电池电动汽车的威胁他们想制定工业政策这将有助于他们的行业好吧世界上每个人都担心当美国实践工业政策时会遭到报复其他国家将实行产业政策，让我说，经济学家不允许说的，这有什么不好的，如果美国的产业政策能使其生产出更好的电池，电动汽车将转向可再生能源，这样做会让欧洲和中国感到非常不舒服，他们实施更多的产业政策来改进他们的电池和电动汽车，我从旁观者的角度说，这就是我们将如何通过无意的合作拯救世界，我对小国推动大国摆脱困境的另外两个想法，当你看到两个大国互相撞击时，你想要做的不一定是完全避开，而是推动他们远离困境，说服他们，他们不必这样做，只需发出冷静、令人安心的声音，最后，我要说的是，多边主义是建立世界理念的一部分，在那个无意的合作中，鉴于地缘政治的现状，这一课不再适用，但将有一种探路者多边主义，这非常重要对于新加坡来说，非常重要的一点是，新加坡的进出口额占国内生产总值的 300%，能够再次与其他国家在公平的竞争环境中进行贸易，如果我们不能同时为全世界做到这一点，那就为子群体做到这一点，让我们为探路者多边主义做到这一点，这些就是我的想法，非常感谢您的关注，我现在想花几分钟时间，嗯，如果每个小组成员都想在与其他人对峙时提出一些热点问题，如果没有，我想邀请观众向我们提出他们的问题，所以我认为这里有一致的意见，因为正如李先生所说，你们中的许多人都非常前卫专家们，是的，先生，请走到麦克风前，快速说一下您是谁，然后问您的问题，我的名字在这里，我一直在关注这些事情，想着几个问题，相对于世界其他国家，您认为中国人的竞争力是否过强，46 年后，T 购物来推动失败的中国经济，为什么中国的产品领导者不能用英语与世界其他国家交流，我认为这比只说中文更能帮助他们展示软实力，非常感谢您的问题，两个非常精确的问题，如果可以的话，让我在这个小组里回答它们，李先生，也许您可??以回答第一个问题，是的，谢谢你的问题，我认为第二个问题首先，为什么他们不能说英语，实际上，根据我对 70 后的经验，特别是 70 后和 80 后，我看到他们中的一些人在阶层中不断上升，他们说着非常好的英语，事实上，他们在西方大学学习，所以所以我希望，当他们有一天真的成为顶尖梯队时，我认为他们的世界观将大不相同，所以这就是即将到来的 Aang，呃你的第一个问题，呃第一个问题是什么，中国人比竞争对手中国人比竞争对手好，我们都是华裔，我的意思是我们大多数人，所以你知道我们知道我们重视教育，你有虎人综合症，你知道，你周末有时间上基础课程，你知道你每天工作 18 个小时，你不会发现它错了，对吧，我的意思是，所以它在中国文化中根深蒂固，重视教育，而且，你知道，当你有一个系统以一种富有成效的方式组织人们时，你将培养出大量的工程师和智力，这将是推动经济发展所必需的，所以我你不能这么说哦，请呃，采用 8 到 5 规则，你知道像澳大利亚一样，如果你如果你的老板不应该在什么时间之后给你发信息，周末等等，你不能发信息，因为这不是中国文化，所以从这个意义上说，DNA 是有帮助的，对，所以我认为嗯，但当然，现在房间里有一头大象，如果大象进入游泳池，由于它的大小，游泳池里会洒出很多水，所以我认为这是他们必须找到让世界感受到的方法，你知道他们有机会，所以中国公司在其他大陆投资，创造就业机会，分享利益，这将是一个富有成效的前进方式，谢谢 Le heni 先生，我想回到中国人说英语的问题，以及它如何影响软实力，我一直在思考这个问题，我问自己，为什么印度人在美国、欧洲和英国等地表现如此出色美国的东亚裔美国人表现不佳，中国人表现也不好，我认为印度受英国殖民统治已有 250 多年，他们把孩子送到英国的寄宿学校，他们设立寄宿学校，比如钦奈的圣史蒂文斯学校，伊顿学校等，印度精英大君都想成为英国人，加入俱乐部等，所以他们了解文化，习惯于和外国人交谈，中国实际上从未被殖民过，除了沿海的租界，当蒙古人来了，摩奴来了，清朝成了中国，蒙古人固守自己的国家，雇佣其他人为他们管理国家，所以中国人在某种意义上非常文化没有被淡化，他们无法理解西方，所以你可以学习英语，他们上大学，但他们学习科学，主要是数学，没有文化内容在美国，我经常被问到，陈大使，为什么中国人在与西方人交谈时，总是用手指指着我们，挥舞着手指，西方人觉得这很具攻击性，我说，哦，就像意大利人一样，你知道，他们握手，而中国人只是指着自己，这不是个人恩怨，他们也会互相指指点点，你知道，甚至指家人，但这是一种文化冲突，我真的认为这是因为中国没有被殖民过，殖民时期非常不同，我认为这就是为什么他们今天没有被殖民，因为世界是西方的，德国文化已经存在了很长时间，你必须了解这种文化的一部分，谢谢你，亨尼，我的意思是，我可以顺便提一下，我的意思是，在新加坡，人们最初也面临着与英语世界接触的挑战，有人试图消灭新加坡式英语，因为当时的方言被认为不合适，然后人们大力推行英语，所以现在我们有能说会道的英语的人，中国也可以我们会这样做，事实上，从中国向美国
和英国西欧派遣的人数来看，它正在培养新一代人，我的朋友 Kug Jin，像 Eric Lee 和其他人一样，他们的英语表达能力和说服力不亚于中文，或者也许我只是接受了你关于中国人是否过于竞争的观点，我认为正确的问题是，为什么我们建立的
系统如此脆弱，以至于一个稍微更有竞争力的群体最终被视为破坏了整个系统，我们应该思考如何
建立系统，以便更多的竞争，任何人都可以带来的尽可能多的竞争对系统有益，理想情况下，我们可以考虑这样的方法，我的意思是
这就是亚当·斯密所说的亚当·斯密 200 年前说过，我们期待餐桌上的晚餐不是因为我们认为人们彼此友好，他们是仁慈的，而是
来自屠夫、面包师和酿酒师，他们期待关注关注他们的自身利益，保证经济市场的正常运转，我们需要建立这样的系统，所以我可以吗，嗯，是的，请，然后，你自己谢谢，然后，嗯，zel，我，首先，我要说，首先，我要感谢liwanu学校举办这个节日，今天是我们前总理刘志军的生日，是的，101岁了，我个人非常感谢他，新加坡也非常感谢他，特别是在我们对中国的了解方面，我认为，在开放中国和当时的旅行中，我是brarian马来报的编辑，但liuan先生，你总是强调，当我们去中国时，代表团总是由多种族组成，包括编辑，所以我很荣幸能成为这个团队的一员，但我也想向李先生强调，我们这里不都是中国人我是新加坡人，但不是全华人，我想说的是，我刚从美国中央情报局回来，在那里呆了两个星期，我们和我以前的同学一起去，他们选择参观新昌，因为他们有穆斯林背景，我想问一个问题，你如何看待中国应对你们都讨论过的挑战，特别是美国，但在这种情况下，你是否认为中国会转向穆斯林世界的那部分，以增进与世界其他国家的理解和关系，但话虽如此，我还想问另一个关于新加坡角色的问题，我刚才听到的真的很棒，很棒的想法，新加坡中国想知道为什么新加坡 70% 的华人应该更像中国人，而不是更接近美国，但我们认为新加坡是多种族的，更接近世界挑战的现实，你如何看待新加坡在这种背景下的角色，新加坡能否发挥作用，让中国更好地了解世界，最终关于学习中文学习英语的观点我在那里也有同样的感受我在那里交流有困难但后来我问自己为什么不学普通话当然中国也必须学习英语并学习世界其他文化但我认为我们已知的中国人也可以学习和理解中国更好谢谢你谢谢Z谢谢你是的让我们来谈谈其他一些问题请问你想吗嗯有麦克风我们可以很快把一个拿来让其他人都能听到我我听得很清楚但其他人也想听你说话不我只是想在这里发表评论因为人工智能技术进步如此之快今天开始发生你可以用任何语言说话是的我们同时翻译成多种语言所以想要翻译成马来语的人坐在一边非洲另一边如果你回答同样的事情你可以用任何语言回答它可以翻译成任何语言说话者谢谢你所以这一天即将到来所以这是好消息非常感谢谢谢你呃先生，请提问，好的，我的名字是 pun oza，非常感谢你举办这次活动，我真的很喜欢这次谈话，我是一名学生，同时也是一名地缘政治和航运老师，因为这是我的职业，所以很明显这很有趣，我只是想从你们所有人的角度来看待一个特定的观点，至少在一些中国朋友和其他朋友中已经传播开来，他们说，中国今天面临的挑战更多的是因为混乱，这是因为一个国家有两个系统，有一个集中的决策计划经济系统，同时有很多私人举措推动着增长和潜在增长，当这两者在某一时刻发生碰撞时，混乱基本上会给你带来最大的中国未来面临的挑战是，你们所有人的观点都是正确的，非常感谢，莱恩，在我转向小组讨论之前，我能先问你一个问题吗，谢谢丹尼，这是一个快速的问题，特别是在你提到中国公司都出去了，否则你就会死，他们来到牙山有两个原因，一是更好地进入市场，不仅是牙山市场，还有欧洲和美国市场，这些市场的限制性更强，另一个是在一定程度上绕过美国对中国实施的出口管制，那么这是否会转化为我们对新加坡等国家施加更大的压力，停止帮助中国获得
出口管制限制技术，例如，电脑芯片，非常感谢莱恩，李先生，我可以再次和你开始吗，我们有很多问题，所以，随便挑一个，凌的问题，对吧，新加坡会停止帮助中国吗，我认为我们的公司正在根据现有的情况进行调整嗯，根据 WTO 的安排，你知道
根据双边和多边自由贸易协定，他们会想出办法，你知道如果直接出口
太高，他们会去另一个国家，然后你知道，航运公司等受益
嗯，他们会找到阻力最小的路径，所以如果这个
关税结构再次发生变化，那么我认为公司将不得不再次调整，所以新加坡是否会帮助这些公司并不重要，我们只是尽可能让自己的商业环境友好，以
接收任何可以利用新加坡的企业，你知道，以繁荣发展，我认为回到问题上
你知道中央政府和企业之间的平衡，确实如此，这是一个常见的观察，在过去的 10 12 年里，有一种现象叫做 soe 前进，但 Poe 后退，好吧，所以是的，S soe 前进和 po嗯，撤退意味着私营部门的作用越来越小，嗯，至少人们的情绪是这样的，对吧，很多重要的重大针头移动项目将由国有企业完成，但你有没有说过，这是有资质的，因为很多电动汽车制造商，你知道，今天他们是 Poes，对吧，但是中国政府一直想在告诉你该做什么方面发挥更大的作用，这与我们在西方世界和新加坡习惯的做法完全相反，我们认为政府应该只做这件事，然后让市场蓬勃发展，你知道，行使他们的判断力和主动性，所以我认为嗯，这确实是今天的一种情绪，这种情绪并不能激发人们对持续投资的信心，我可以邀请你谈谈吗，我想我会回答 zel 的问题，因为你已经回答了其他问题，问题是中国将如何处理中东问题因为它想接触并建立一些影响力和合作，这肯定是打破他们所认为的西方的一种方式，美国带领其北约盟友试图限制中国，呃，它有这个桑问题，他们将如何处理穆斯林，事实上，我曾经问过一位中国官员，为什么中国不向新加坡、马来西亚或印度尼西亚寻求建议，这些国家都是穆斯林占多数的国家，他们如何处理激进的伊斯兰教，你知道，我说这仍然有可能，可能还不算太晚，我没有得到答案，因为我认为这超出了他的薪酬等级，但呃，但我认为中国必须解决这个问题，就你所知，我一直保持沉默，沙特阿拉伯、中东国家、印度尼西亚、马来西亚，他们没有把桑发生的事情当成问题，主要是因为它是分裂主义的，我向我解释过，因为它是一个分裂主义派别，大多数这些国家本身都反对分裂主义，但我认为中国为了自身的自尊心和进一步接触世界其他国家的能力，必须解决桑的问题，我不认为这是种族灭绝，我认为这是侵犯人权，严重侵犯人权，所以这是一个中国如何寻求解决这个问题的问题，否则，它总是会成为全面合作的障碍，谢谢，他，Selena，是的，让我回答，也许我会把业务问题留给你们两个，我右边左边右边，嗯，我会回答 Z 的问题，嗯，除了中国大使所说的，我认为还有这个 Rich，嗯，这个公共关系外展，中国正在向穆斯林国家进行公共外展，就桑的情况而言，他们嗯，你知道，邀请了印度尼西亚和马来西亚的宗教领袖和穆斯林团体来访问桑，并向你们展示知道所有这些事情都没有发生，但我认为有一件事我们必须做，如果我们退后一步，这里还涉及到其他事情，嗯，改善我们与穆斯林世界的关系，我想这是我们想做的事情，但我们知道中国与印度尼西亚和马来西亚的关系实际上相当好，特别是在经济领域，这也与此有很大关系，所以这是外交政策的一部分，呃，与宗教问题略有不同，我认为中国在中东的参与不仅仅是宗教问题，还有大国管理，我刚才谈到大国管理世界，管理世界意味着什么，这意味着你将自己插入有冲突和暴力的地方，然后你扮演调解角色，我认为这是它在全球崛起的一部分，也是他的全球野心的一部分，它以美国的方式在中东扎根，在美国无法达成协议的地方，比如早些时候伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之间，所以它已经将自己插入在大国管理中扮演大国的角色，在美国无法感受到的空间中，我认为这是需要记住的重要事情，向穆斯林世界和中东拓展新加坡，因为我们已经过时了，新加坡在让中国更好地了解世界方面发挥的作用，我认为我们在翻译方面发挥了很长一段时间的作用，试图突破成为会议点，但我认为在当前的气候下，这种作用仍然存在，但可能不像过去那样，过去中国愿意学习，在讲课的时候，中国是学生，现在是老师，我认为它认为自己是一名老师，我认为我们需要记住这一点，我们应该小心我们如何处理这个问题，以及我们扮演什么样的角色，易，你想跳过，我只是想补充一下，我没有回答这一点，我同意赛琳娜的观点，中国实际上已经发展了，它已经成长了，当他们达到西方国家正在与中国对话，他们已经建立了许多对话，数百次对话，他们不需要新加坡，但我认为，当中国与西方国家之间出现如此多的困难，并试图让西方理解和赞赏它正在做的事情时，新加坡可以发挥作用，我知道这一点，因为中国智库团体已经来到新加坡，并问你是否可以帮助建立美国和中国之间的对话，因为新加坡实际上受到美国的信任，而且你在中国有中国渠道，所以我现在不会否认我们的作用，但我们至少应该谦虚和谦逊，我们能发挥多大作用，尝试帮助建立对话总是好的，因为双方可以互相交谈，你知道，虽然新加坡似乎很支持，但我认为即使中国也明白，新加坡领导人不时在重要论坛上为中国发声，敦促西方也与中国对话，我记得李先贤总理在任总理时在尼克论坛上说过，你知道我明白一些志同道合的人将组成一个团体来应对未来的挑战，指的是美国正在组建的所有这些小多边组织，他说，但你实际上是否与你的潜在对手建立了信任建设措施，你知道，这种说法对中国有帮助吗？谢谢亨尼，如果可以的话，我只想就林的问题说几句话，但也许方向略有不同，我认为对我们其他人来说，一个很大的陷阱是，认为在这场美中对抗中，我们可以直接参与，是的，做生意，我们可以成为中国加一，这样当美国真的厌倦了中国时，就会把我们当作加一，嗯，我想说的是，如果你认为美国与中国的问题不是个人问题，那么它面临的中国冲击带来的正面挑战，中国的出口并不是中国独有的，每当它看到一个竞争性经济体以挑战美国霸权的方式向美国出口时，它就会做出反应，我们在日本看到了这一点。 20 世纪 90 年代和 21 世纪，日本是美国经济政策的头号敌人，当时的日本不是中国，日本是美国太平洋联盟的坚定盟友，日本的整个军队都受到美国国防部的保护，尽管如此，美国认为日本在冰箱、汽车、消费电子产品出口方面的进步对美国经济构成了威胁，所以如果我们中的任何一个人这么想，你知道中国和我们有麻烦了，我可以成为越南，我可以成为墨西哥我可以成为另一个人来
接管中国出口到美国的产品我可以成为加分项
嗯，我担心的是经济学告诉我们什么不会发生我们需要采取另一种策略一种更具建设性的策略有助于让美国和中国再次走到一起嗯我很想
有更多的问题因为这很有趣我希望这对每个人来说都很有趣但我们的时间已经到了我剩下的唯一要说的是邀请你和我一起感谢这个精彩的小组
谢谢小组成员呃我们现在可以邀请他们到前面进行集体照吗同时我们要感谢大家参加本次节日会议，下一次大厅会议将于下午 12:15 开始。与此同时，请随意探索 BTC 校园并参加我们为您准备的一些友好活动，从我们的研究到遗产展览，再到我们的“极速前进”，20 位幸运儿将有机会赢得 20 份价值 120 美元的奖品，我们希望您也饿了，因为我们在后面的学生休息室设有食品站，如果您愿意，您可以去那里吃点东西和喝点饮料，谢谢

Festival of Ideas 2024- The China Shock at the End of History

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPL1NcM7i1Q

2024年10月10日

US-China rivalry might well become a constant in our lifetimes. Some observers already take this Great Power competition as a given and suggest only we adapt to it as best we can. If, however, there is to be hope of its resolution, we need to understand how this rivalry developed. Once, the world was set on engagement, now it appears only to be about Great Powers balancing against one another. What can we say about the root causes underlying US-China rivalry? What were the markers that should have been detected in the retreat from engagement? Our panelists address these questions from a range of different perspectives and ask how there might be ways out of this gridlock. Find out more about the Festival of Ideas https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/news-events... and for enquiries, please contact LKYSPP Events Team via email: [e-mail]

What is Festival of Ideas

The world today is mired in a polycrisis that threatens the foundations of shared prosperity and progress. More than ever, we need good governance within nations in Asia and across the international community. Ideas matter. They must be grounded in research and communicated to decision makers and the wider public to bring about change.

This has been the mission of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy since its establishment twenty years ago. As we mark this milestone, we invite you to engage with our faculty, students and partners on the transformative ideas and issues reshaping our world in the Festival of Ideas 2024.

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okay um let's begin good morning everyone welcome to the booket Tima
Campus of the Lian you School of public policy and welcome to this Festival of
ideas this is um one of the two opening sessions for the festival the festival
is a weekl long event that the leanu school organizes every other year the purpose of the festival is that it is an engagement with the local
community here in the BK Tima area but in Singapore more broadly and indeed an engagement with the rest of the world at the festival we welcome
students from neighborhood JC's at the same time that we welcome
world-renowned academics and thought leaders from all around the
world the festival is an engagement on the great ideas and the most pressing
issues of our time it is an occasion where the school gets to showcase our
thinking our PhD and Master's students uh display their work our
faculty and colleagues both from from the school itself but our colleagues
from all around the world engage in conversation this is all part of the
school mission that we Inspire change makers and Leadership we help improve
the well-being of people around us and further a field and we help transform
Asia through the experience of good governance the session here this morning
is about the China shock at the end of History what we will do is we will have
a series of opening statements from four of us and then
after that we will engage in conversation both with among the four of us and with you the audience I will not repeat uh information that you already have in brochures and that brought you here but uh I would now just like to welcome to the stage Professor Chan heni Professor Selena ho Mr Lee Shen please join me in welcoming my colleagues to the stage we will begin in alphabetical order with a short opening statement from each of the panelists on this on this that we're going through the US China rivalry and what we do with it going forwards Ambassador Professor Chan

Professor Chan

please thank you good morning ladies and gentlemen I hope I will be short I don't know I'm a little disorganized but uh we've had three China shocks since the end of history that is since the end of the Cold War the first shock is a rapid and Relentless rise of China especially since its entry into WTO economically first for China because it brought about great transformation and it also had great geopolitical and geoeconomic implications for the rest of the world I think the US United States and Europe never foresaw what the rise of China would mean in terms of China being the factory of the world it was good for everybody until it wasn't good for everybody uh you know Napoleon said of China let China sleep for when she wakes she will shake the
world and Lewan Yu in fact I looked at one of his old tapes in 1980 at the
feton square rally said you know of China and this is 1980 two years after
China's entry into the world the four modernizations Etc and T XA Ping's visit
to Singapore he saw what was happening in shinin and he said look at shinin
what the Chinese are doing just watch it grow then he also said in the same
speech China is today buying boeings from the United States and Trident from
uh Britain in two to three three generations China will be building its own planes one generation is about 25 years or 20 years so in 40 50 years China will be building its own play absolutely correct you've just seen the c919 being unveiled so that is the China shock but let me put it again in another way the first shop do you know in 1980 that's 2 years just after modernization so it does count China is finding its way through it share of the world GDP was 2.7% in 2001 I take it one year after WTO its share of the world economy was 3.9% United States was 31.3% Europe 31 21.3% Japan 13.9% in 2023 and this includes some of
the problems China has been going through China's share of the world economy was 16.9% America from 31% in 2001 has become in 2023 26.1% Europe is
17.5% dropped also and Japan is 4% of the world's economy China and
Europe Europe as a whole China as a single economy vies for a second place
as share of the world economy and in recent years because of what's happening in China with the difficulties I think its share of the world economy is dropped some so United States is sitting pretty at about 25 26% so that's what it means is that shock from 2.7% in 1980 to now about 17% of the world
economy there are other figures I can give you the Share of the trading economy but I don't have time the second shock that China delivered was that China's rise triggered an intense competition between the United States and China not seen since the end of the Cold War clearly it is about dominance in the world order first it began as a trade War a tech then it was investment War then it was a technology War you know military competition and so on as George yo said very soon it'll be a hot War you know but it's different Wars but
it's about dominance in the world system and it is about values and it is about
soft power and recently in the last year or so it's been more clear who sets the
rules of the world order now this is structural and so this rivalry this
competition will not end anytime soon and it will not end no matter whether
the United States votes for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is whether is a
little bit more predictable or totally unpredictable those who say China should
have stuck to Peaceful RS I say are wrong because because even if they said
China said we believe in peaceful rise nobody will believe China in fact when I was in the United States in the 1990s early 2000s Americans said to me oh yeah they say peaceful rise this is stage one wait till China gets stronger will they still stick to Peaceful rise so there's no point you know they can't hide the light under the bushill they cannot say they believe in peaceful rise shock number three is the rapid slide and difficulties of the Chinese economy we've seen China grow so rapidly so in the last few years when we saw China's economy spluttering doing so badly that's a shock too goodness is this China and in America there are analysts who say China Peak China Peak China is going to slide and go down from now on so what is the real ch China so this is the third shock that China has developed that it can rise so fast and suddenly things seem to unravel so
quickly and on top of it we hear about its declining population and the Aging
population mind you the whole world is aging and the whole world is declining you know demographers said in 2080 world's population would have peaked all of us would have declining populations so it's not just China with the
declining population but I think the declining population aging population with the slowing economy presents challenges for investors and for China so how do you reach China is it completely failing if you read Financial Times New York Times these days there's no good news that comes out of China but
let me tell you that there are some reports which very few pick up and when they do it just floats away and that is that firste cities in China are in trouble second third fourth fifth year cities in China are doing quite okay you know not all cities but many of the cities are doing okay now um I have some data from think China which is the uh ja's um publication on China and it shows that retail sales in these second third tier cities are rising you know not all but most of them if you take 36
cities three are falling behind the rest are going up tier two tier three I have
the figures here the reference if you want is 9th of September 2024 for
Scholars year that's your reference think China look up the data you know
and uh also the growth is not bad and further if you say oh think China Le her
is pro-china let me cite you Economist data The Economist on June 6 2024 had an
issue which was you know move over Beijing you know watch out for the
second and tier second and third tier cities but you see it came as one
article and nobody put things together but um
I have no time Danny I just came across this yesterday and I was too lazy to put it into a slide you know but uh the uh economies of the second and third tier cities are generally the figures show they growing cha ching they all are near
7.78% growth in these cities is like 6.5 Chu Shen okay but
Beijing and Shanghai guango is below the national average not guangong
but Beijing and Shanghai okay and in the and the population
changes population is growing in Chuan Wuhan so on aing losing population chuning kind of stopped and Chang just 0.06 so Mo things are moving to the second third tier City some movement there and it makes sense because China's Now growth model emphasizes Advanced manufacturing and the green economy and a lot of this is going up to the second and third tier City so that's where people are going also so I was the thing China article
says that people are spending in the second and third tier cities because in tier one all the property tier one cities money is tied up in property and it's so high then it collapsed and you have your Tech entrepreneurship the tech Talent Financial Talent Etc they are so tied up and all these sad stories the taning and so on people are going to the firste cities and getting most of the feedback there but I I this doesn't mean China is sort of boobing like that and some Skeptics say can the advanced manufacturing AI Etc and green economy replace or create the same growth as the infrastructure property infrastructure Etc of the past
e-commerce probably not so it's slowing down a bit but it's not flat and not not
growing this is China so what I'm trying to say is that that is another narrative and we should look at this China is not a hopeless case and it's changing clearly the model is changing so I do not know what will come at the end of it I better wind up soon because I'm exceeding my time so the question is one will China recover
two if China's economy is weakening does that lighten the competition between the United States and China I for one don't think so because there are some people saying in the US well if it's down why don't you put it out you know so you strength and put china 5 10 years behind so uh the question is are we moving to a decoupled world is this going to be a cold war I'll leave Selina to talk about about that but I think we have to remember I have always said the United States is a resilient country don't underestimate the United States in the same way I will say China is a resilient country don't underestimate China and when China's growth picks up again you will find people flocking back to Hong Kong and flocking back to China because the world the Europe and China and the United States does not want to miss out on a piece of the action so what is the role of small and medium siiz size States in this contentious time I would say we can do nothing if the United States does not themselves see that it is not in their interest to go to war if they feel if the United
States and China feel it is not in their interest to go to war small states
mediumsized states can do something and we are all trying Building Bridges creating forums for track to conferences
and there's a lot of that going on now but and since the San
Francisco Summit Americans say there's a flaw put to how low the relationship can
fall you ask Americans they say relationship has stabilized I've spoken to the Chinese counterparts and they say
relationship has stabilized I think they hope it will stabilize you know and uh
but and Jake Sullivan has said
we now in Bali president siin ping told Biden President Biden that China does
not seek to change the exist interfere in the internal affairs
of the US and has has no intention to challenge or displace the United States
this was repeated in San Francisco scope as well the United States does not believe in the statement at all so I
think there will be this pushing back and forth we should work in small bikes of time I would say small little forums
you cannot have a strategy and a plan for a decade how you bring
you because confidence building is a stepbystep measure and even then this is
hard my last point is that once we can build a bridge you are seeing a number
of countries emerging what I call countries that are entering a third space India is one of them and Indonesia
I think Singapore tries where you want to have good relationships all around
you can have alignment India has alignment on the quad indopacific strategy but it is not
exclusive it still has a relationship with Russia so this third space when it grows I think will help to blend the
Rivalry between the two sides thank
you thank you very much hchi for um such an excellent opening to our session you
talked about the three shocks you talked about geographical rebalancing in China and then you gave us some optimism on a
way ahead with a very nuanced uh subtle discussion about possible strategies I'd
now like uh to invite Professor Selena ho to pick up the conversation thank you very much can I speak from here yeah
absolutely I great uh thanks Daddy and um uh thank you for being here and it's a real pleasure to be on this panel uh
and a real honor to um uh I'm glad that I'm actually speaking right after
Ambassador Chan because a lot of her remarks resonate with me but also because I want to um you know she
addresses the systemic or the structural view as as we know it in us China
rivalry what I really want is to look at the domestic drivers and uh in particular I'm interested in um uh the
Chinese angle so I'm looking I'm going to talk about the Chinese perspective of this this rivalry um but you know um
well I mean the title is the China shock at the end of History so rightfully speaking about China is correct um but
you know just let me I think that Ambassador Chan taks a a really good um gave a very good uh dissecting of the
China shock the three shocks but let me speak a little bit about the end of history and I have some you know
students in the audience if I were in the classroom I be dissecting and unpacking these terms right now at the end of History some of you may or may
not have know about it and it's been used quite a lot in in different circles but the end of history is actually
popularized by a book that Francis fukiyama wrote uh it's in 1992 right
after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of Communism in uh in Europe
so it was uh it it was called the end of history and the last man now this idea
the end of History actually did not come from fukiyama himself he popularized it but it's an idea that concept that has
been put out there by Western philosophers and in particular German philosopher uh Hegel okay now the idea
of the hand of history is not the end of the world just to be clear it's different from the end of the world it's
the end of history in a sense that that human progression is such that at the end of of history there will be a
political system or ideology that will prevail so that's the background to the title of China shock at the end of
History which is a very fantastic idea that you came up with Danny by the way um uh I really like it um and we can
discuss end of History the merits of fugama uh you know uh or dis merits of his arguments later on a discussion but
let me quickly dive into my my remarks and my remarks are actually organized around three main question questions um
the first question is what are the drivers of Chinese foreign policy second
question is what is what is the kind of international order or intern or world order that China wants and what does
this you know does Chinese Ambitions uh what what are these Ambitions and what Chinese Ambitions and the US reluctance
to equ to Chinese Ambitions what does this mean for the rest of us uh for the rest of the world and for our future
okay so let me let me look at the first drive the the first question drivers of Chinese foreign
policy now one of the key I think misunderstandings and misperception and
the lack of this communication between China and the US is that um sometimes I
think they don't understand the domestic politics of the other side very well and um we we actually really need to
understand this rivalry in a sense that looking at within China itself we need to search for these drivers within China
now what are by ask asking this very first question what are Chinese domestic priorities and I think when uh president
C and um when he came into office in 2012 2013 he came into office looking at
you know Society economy and the CCP the Chinese Communist party and the
direction is going and I think they saw something which he's not very happy with
and the group around him they are not very happy with so he had three remakes he want to remake three things the first
is to remake Chinese economy now uh what does that mean well China does not like
a free willing economy that's completely driven by market forces I think they
recognize the need for Market forces but they don't want it to be completely driven by market forces it does not like
the uneven development and the inequalities that come with this Market
forces and so they don't they don't look at the West they look at the west and they say you know this is not what we
want we don't want this inequalities we don't want this uneven development we want something more stable more equal
and hence we have the term common Prosperity okay so this is why in a
sense you see um the SE uh government and his uh those around him targeting
private businesses and firms they have gotten too big and powerful uh so they
have to they want to control this businesses so that it becomes too so powerful that they will challenge the
Chinese Communist party or the Chinese State I think that's a key point and China wants the other thing in economy
is a dual circulation economy that's the other thing that you hear very often now what does that mean it means really a
closing off of the Chinese economy and but more importantly the desire for self-reliance and I think this desire
for self-reliance is it predates the trade war in 2016 it predates the US
China rivalry trade war in 2016 and so we we need to understand the first
domestic priority is remake Chinese economy the second priority is to remake
Chinese Society again you know the sea leadership and his you know his team
came in into power and saw a society that he thinks is deteriorating a society that is not ideologically pure
enough it has it wanted to keep out Western thought uh it wanted to keep out ideas of liberal ideas capitalist ideas
and and bring ideological Purity back and sense you have things like things
like social rebalancing that's been used here and um the social credit system now
why do we have that well essentially is to control society and the Chinese have really been very good in controlling Society through the use of technology and that's that's pretty amazing in the way that they have withered that um and but basically it created a w of society from the rest of the world to keep out the elements that the Chinese leadership does not want now the third remake that this the Chinese Communist Party have is to remake the CCP itself again the sense is that the CCP has lost its way it's lost its ideological Purity is further and has gone too far in the liberal way in the western sense right so the they you have all these anti-corruption campaigns ideological correctness the stress on ideological correct correct thought so these three remix now why these three remix why these priorities essentially it boys down to one thing and that is to enhance the legitimacy ensure the survival of the CCP regime this need to enhance legitimacy and the survival of the regime and the party drives Chinese foreign policy so Chinese foreign policy gos essentially
in a very broad scheme of things is to ensure two things to ensure the legitimacy of the CCP and to make the
world safe for different forms of government and not just democratic governments but make the world safe also
for authoritarian or autocratic governments now that's the first uh uh answer to the
first question now the second question is what kind of world order does China want now China has in my opinion a haral
worldview he's it sees great Powers as ruling the world and jointly manage
managing the world we call this great power management great Powers managing the world and hence you know you see um
presidency uh uh proposing the idea of a G2 right a G2 with the United States
during the Obama Administration that that idea has flown out of the window by now but the idea is that the two
greatest Powers the United States and China leading the rest of the world and managing Affairs right so what it really
wants at the end of the day is really parity with China it wants its authority to be recognized as legitimate it wants
a world order where it has greater say and it wants a world order that's commensurate with its size
now it key grievance is that the United States and its allies have not accorded it the status the respect and the
position is entitled to because his political system and ideology are different this is his key grievance okay
now um I actually unlike Ambassador Chan I don't think that China wants uh Global
dominance and I don't I'm not sure whether that's what you meant um but I agree agree there is this fight for
Global dominance but I'm not sure that China itself really wants Global dominance I think that China does not
seek to overturn the international order it wants to be adjusted to it to be
adjusted Comm accommodate its rights and it be be recognized as the equal of the US this is the idea of parity to make it
safe for authoritarian systems to be accepted it wants recognition that the CCP is legitimate and has a right to
exist and to govern China so whether IR want's Global dominance is really a very
good big question I think it knows it's not quite there yet not yet okay it may
want parity now with the US and to have this idea of a G2 maybe in the next 10 to 20 years but what happens after that
that's the question mark who knows right um and I think in order to understand
where China is going in terms of its global global Ambitions it's very important to look at the developments in
domestic politics so any person who studies Chinese policy us China rivalry needs to look at Chinese domestic
politics now that's a difficult part understanding and and and trying to see what's going on in ch Chinese domestic
politics is very difficult now because the system has become even more opaque than than before um regionally
regionally right what is it that China wants and I think this is where China would want Regional dominance and by
that I meant is what I mean is that its preference is that there are no other
compet centers of power in Asia okay now just to be very clear this is what all
great powers do this is not unique to China that be China wants a region where
it can dominate that is not unique to China all great powers do that you see that United States doing that in Latin
America you see um Russia doing that in Europe Eastern Europe and you see India
doing that in South Asia is a very normal behavior that great powers do um so all great Powers want what is called
a sphere of influence in the region it is closest in is it is in or
is closest to so that its interests are not negatively impacted by a rival power
it wants the region to take into account its interests and prefaces and not take the side of a Ral we making policies so
this brings me to my third question what do all these developments Chinese Ambitions and us you know resistance to
and reluctance to to acces what China wants um the US does not want to
acknowledge China's status and the right of the CP CCP to exist and having an alternative form of government what I
what I want to say is that we are actually un unlikely to see a return to the old Cold War the old Cold War right
where alliances and blocks are really clear cut you know who is in whose Camp they are knowing between okay so which
is I mean there's a group the non- allign movement that tried to do that but in a very they usually slunt to one
side or another now in a way this this alliances and blocks being
clearcut actually produce order and stability because we know exactly where
each other stand but instead we are likely to see alliances and Partnerships that are fluid because Regional States
including us aies have deep economic linkages with China now the fluidity of
this emerging order and shifting alliances mean there's more uncertainty and dangers as misper ceptions and
miscalculations may may result so are we in a new Cold War well I think the jury is out on that
there's no clear answer there are similarities there are differences but but if there is a nuclear war it would
be different from the old it cannot be that in the world now and and we can see that you know the US and China need to
talk to each other there has there's a time where they didn't speak much but they have to eventually in San Francisco
and there after so it will not be it would be difficult for the US and China not to talk to each other uh as in the
days of the Iron Curtain a cold literally means you know you don't talk to each other right um so you're
unlikely to see that kind of return the old Cold War but we may have something new um on on that now let me end on a
brighter note and actually in agreement with Ambassador chanc last's point on small and middle Powers now small and
middle powers can provide the ballast as great Powers they can go fight it out
but we can provide the bestest Okay small and midle Powers have come together to ensure Glo Global Supply
Chain stability setting rules in technology and many other things that have done in digital economic
Partnerships etc etc I think that we are trying our best and we should continue
doing so thank
you thank you Selena for wonderfully stated position you told told us about
what drives China from inside what China wants the Contours of
what China's vision of an order is and how that is consistent with and not
consistent with what great powers like the United States Envision and then you
told us about some hopeful ways forwards as well in terms of what small and middle uh powers can do uh you've told
us about your view of how what will likely emerge thank you very much I'd now like to turn to Mr Lee who will
share with us his perspective I think from a lifetime of work in government and lifetime of work in actually
engaging with China Mr Lee over to you please thank you very much hello can you hear me yes good morning uh everyone and
uh it's a great pleasure for me to join you uh in this panel discussion if Danny
had told me uh who will be among the audience uh I may have a second thought about accepting this uh invitation
because there are so many experts and uh you know analysts uh of China in this
room uh I speak as a student of uh of China I uh started my Learning Journey
uh when I was posted to uh SoJO industrial park in 1997 so it's almost a 30 years of uh
visiting China and this year alone I visited China ninth time as I told
NL so in the week's time I'll do my 10th trip uh so I deal with uh government leaders
um um the the the businesses businesses and can be divided into the state Lo
Enterprises as well as the privately owned Enterprises Poes so I deal with
them both in Singapore and in China so I I will speak from that experience or
that limitation uh you know uh in terms of my
perspective my remarks will be three parts first is about China uh becoming
the second largest economy in 2010 we all know that uh you know China started
his uh uh reform and opening up in 1979 in fact uh in 2018 when I spoke at
the 40th anniversary of uh Chinese uh reform and opening up I said that uh it
was China was the uh most uh remarkable
economic uh hisory history you know they had the most remarkable economic
development in human history uh I don't think you can find another parallel so I
think in the 80s it grew uh 9.7% in the '90s it grew
10.5% and in the 2000s it grew another 10.5% although slowing down in the 2010s
with 7% but still you know spectacular growth rates in that 40 years so when
when I went to sucho in 1997 from the United States I spent 5 years before that I said
wow capitalist economy in the world uh you a't see anything yet until you go to
China you know at that time China is is quite like free for all so long you have
the idea and the law doesn't say no you can do it so for those of you who watch
the drama F right is exactly the kind of uh animals spirited uh you know energy being
mobilized in all levels of the society so U of course uh in that 40
years uh I think the key drivers were really the you know reform and opening up um I think a lot of us know that how
Singapore got involved when uh then PM Lee leanu visited China in 1976 and D
sha ping came in 78 and subsequently uh go kingu uh our that prime minister then
was appointed after he stepped down to the state Council as the economic advisor to advise on two things special
economic zones and tourism development uh so in that 40 years uh China had done a lot of Reform and it's
freedom and uh you know people exercise the Ingenuity and creativity and
resourcefulness and the system allow it so so you hear the phrase that uh to get
rich uh to get wealthy is glorious so that was uh really a golden period uh so
so back and forth I I experienced that you know kind of energy uh you know in
my work uh from both uh as a civil servant and then later on in the
politics uh and then later on private sector another driver then was also uh
the accession of China to WTO in 20101 so interestingly I was also
appointed uh to be the advisor of uh Shanghai to Affairs Council or something
in in that year so you know why why all of us outside China worried about how
Chinese cheap products may may dumb be dumb into our markets and and uh and
then therefore killing our you know ourmes in China is the other way around they all worried about you know foreign
products high quality coming in and destroy their their private sector so so it's a very interesting experience but
the rest is history I think China became the factory of the world um you know with the largest and most extensive
manufacturing uh capabilities I think you know those of you who use Apple phone will know that uh that exemplifies
the the strength uh and comprehensiveness of of Chinese supply
chain so okay so then we go on to the second period uh if you look closer from
2000 to 2000 to 2023 which is last year
I think in this period uh China uh and asan and Southeast Asia uh has gone
closer in terms of Economic and trade um in terms of Investments uh many Chinese
companies has started to relocate you know their uh labor intensive industry
into say Vietnam Cambodia uh you know and Indonesia
Malaysia and so on because to take advant AG of the relatively cheaper labor cost uh so it goes with uh very
simple uh household goods Furniture clothing textiles and then later on
followed by assembly of white goods another reason is also that uh asan
enjoys tariffs uh than the rest of the world so by relocating some of their
production Chinese own companies production to asan they enjoy the
differential uh in terms of uh uh tariff rates to say uh to say you know United
States a North American Market the other driver during this period 2000 and
20223 uh is also the Chinese plus one strategy uh from multinationals and this
became very pronounced uh after covid after what multinationals saw what
happened to China uh in terms and especially in Shanghai after the total lockdown so so companies are saying we
no longer can put all our supply chain in one place we better diversify our
risk and uh multinationals are telling their suppliers and some of their suppliers are Chinese companies uh to
say that hey look you know if you don't diversify away from China I'm not going to give you uh I'm no I'm only give you
50% of the order for next year or 70% or whatever you know so that China's plus
one strategy benefited asan and and you will read and from various reports that
Vietnam is a key beneficiary but it's not just Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia
Cambodia and know to certain extent LA and so on of course behind all this uh
there all always have been a uh kind of belt and Road initiative you know when
uh China uh wanted to export uh their infrastructure building know how uh to
to not just asan countries but you know to the
world of the stages of development they really need a lot of infrastructure many
countries are without Port without power plants without proper Road you know without without Rail and so on and these
are all key ingredients for for sustainable Economic Development so so
China fits into that road very well and and by the way uh when BR money goes
south from China to the rest of the world Singapore manage managed to capture about one3 of the of the capital
flow so which is which is good for us the third uh point I'd like to make
is uh about this long-term uh prospects for China asan relations um I think uh
in and Selena both talk about Sino us relations uh there's a very big picture
uh but closer to home um you know we I I'm very interested in how Singapore and
uh Singapore and asan with China will continue to develop uh our relations I
think the first point is uh asan has become the largest training partner
overtaking uh America and the EU uh two years ago for you know for China so
that's very significant China became the largest training partner to asan uh was
was history right I mean not just asan but 120 other countries in the world but
to be for asan to be the largest trading partner to the to to China is very
significant and I think this trend will continue uh not withstanding the fact
that China economies has slowed uh why because we have uh uh this
complementarities between the two region asan per capita income is uh from 1,5 us
to to 85,000 in Singapore so there's a whole range and China is about 13,000 us
so above uh two3 of uh asan countries so as far as China is concerned uh they
don't compete with asan you know countries per se that much in fact in
many area they are leading in terms of uh in terms of technology and supply chain uh but but given the fact that the
world is bifa uh and and the markets are setting up you know protectionist policy so the
Chinese Enterprise themselves not just multinationals will have to find ways to distribute their supply chain outside
China in order to continue to survive so two months ago I I receed a delegation
of the Home Furnishing Association from China so I remember the the president of
the association said that you either go out or you die all right so so the
this is the it Rhymes better in Chinese meaning that you you don't because
because for that industry they are tied to the property market right so they their order book is suddenly reduced by
50% and and then how I mean so many suppliers you know Home Furnishing there's a lot of you know related
industry in the Eco system so if they if they don't go out they will die you know so that's how how severe it is so they
they come out and Singapore will benefit from it because we we can't do the the low cost manufacturing but we come we
can become the headquarter for them uh you know uh marshalling resources and uh
becoming a command center so to speak um the others is also of course uh you know
as as hingi and Selena said before uh that the geopolitical Dynamics will will
will start to drive uh many businesses to think uh to think asan provided uh
provided asan ourselves remain neutral friendly to all parties and acceptable
to all parties so I think I I personally feel that uh China is a really a
long-term Factor you know after all is like like H said is 60% of the world
economy it is at your doorstep it is three and a half hours away uh from the nearest uh point of entry uh unlike the
US which is like 14 hours away to to across the Pacific so is there in fact
all of us will feel it because we see a lot more Chinese restaurants right of different uh Regional uh uh Cuisine kind
of emphasis in in Singapore on the streets all right you see Chinese Brands coming in fashion brands sports brands
and and if you go to China uh now they are Chinese uh Cosmetics they they are
just the advertisment just as slick any french and and and Japanese uh you know
Sephora reported uh the closing stores in in China so so I think the Chinese uh
Brands will all come out so if you ask me how do I look at the
world uh how but you know in Singapore we we we are so small we can't influence
world events we can't influence the world powers we can have dialogues and uh we can be a platform and uh but they
too will want to have their own platforms and uh dialogue channels um
so there's a Chinese saying uh in this case it's a bit like so
[Music] know so meaning meaning we can't we
can't work against the uh the current we just have to flow with the current uh
sounds a bit Thais but uh and we find we we we we find calm calmness and and and
peace in in this in this flow and and try to make a living out of it so that's
my comment thank you very
much thank you Mr Lee for wonderfully bringing us back to how asan engages
with China and how you know what the prospects and challenges are going
forwards um I'm now going to uh speak about uh I'm going to try and add to the
conversation and perhaps in then I unexpected way we have heard what
China's priorities are we have heard what the perspectives of China are we've heard what how asan looks at this let me
argue for the United States now uh recently I wrote something
called uh how America should stop its Obsession of being number one and for
that I got trolled tremendously by many
me now anti-American I am not and I want to
argue the case now from the perspective of the United States because part of
trying to think about the China shock is trying to think about us China rivalry and it takes two to
tangle there's no sound of one hand clapping we've got to try and understand
both sides to this engagement many of you will recall that
one way that many people think about us China rivalry is through a very simple
graph that graph is one of America's GDP and of China's GDP the size of
America's economy and the size of China's economy and all of us are now
familiar with the idea how China's economy is catching up converging
towards the United States and if you don't want to think about the economy you can think about it in terms of the
size of the military number of nuclear warheads you can think about it as measures of other kinds of Power
engagement to the rest of the world every single Dimension China is catching
up to the United States what's so wrong about that well
from America's perspective what's happening with this graph is the
possibility of a hostile hegemonic
power gaining ascendency in the US in the Asia Pacific
region in the Pacific Ocean region this now China the United States
Europe everyone in the world this part of the world is considered the
economic and soon to be potentially the political center of the world from sheer
numbers of people people from demography from the economic Vitality from the
political engagements that are happening here when that happens this will severely
constrain American freedom of actions and the range of strategies they are
able to undertake so observers look to some imagined theoretical Point there's
a threshold and say that's the danger point when China reaches 80% of us power
or 90% or whatever that's a simple story about the China
shock at the end of History China's rise has brought this upon
itself as Ambassador says No One Believes In the Chung Pan's uh
articulation of China's peaceful R the structure of it is that this will be a
challenge so as much as anyone else I like simple stories to understand the
world and that is a really simple story size of the whatever compared to one
another but even I find that story a little bit too simple as a way to think
about the China shock at the end of history as a way to think about us China rivalry so let me take the three and a
half minutes I have left here to go through three points those three points
are very simple I want to talk about a cycle in
world history the first point I want to make is the rising part of that cycle
which you can think about as engagement of the rest of the world of America with
China and then I want to talk about not Peak China I don't I'm not a pessimist
about China I think China's economy will continue to grow but the peak of that cycle that then takes us
towards disengagement what international relation Scholars call balancing what
the rest of us might think of as rivalry this is the ERA this downturn of
the cycle that's the era of the China shock that China shock has brought us to
where we are today and then my third Point what is the way forwards for us as
all of my uh colleagues on this panel have said they've all given you a vision of the way forwards I want to give you a
vision of that as well so going back back to the period of
Engagement why did World History go through this upward part of the
cycle between 1980 and 2010 the United States and
China dealt with each other in constructive
engagement whether they thought about it that way or not that's what they did so
they ended up in inadvertent constructive engagement
the great driving themes of that era were two there was
geopolitics and there was International economics geopolitics said that the world was
converging politically everyone would come to have
soon the same political system it's what my colleague Selena referred to as hego
and fukuyama's description of the end of history that there was only one coherent
political construct that all nations around the world whatever region geography Origins would eventually
converge to this gave America great hope
that as China grew simply through the act of its maturing China would become
like them there would no be no ideological confrontation there would be
no geopolitical differences everyone would have the same politics economics
was the mirror of that grand idea economics said that you should pursue
economic efficiency and comparative advantage China provided a cheap labor
force a willingness to industrialize that complemented what the rest of the
world America in particular wanted this gave rise to an interconnectedness an
inadvertent cohes iive coalescent Global poity and economy
international trade is win-win China's growth is win-win because of geopolitical
convergence but then something broke we reached that Peak and that Peak was not
at China 80% of the United States that Peak happened in
2010 2 years after the global financial crisis geopolitical attitudes shifted
away away from engagement towards rivalry the world moved away from
coalesence towards fragmentation some of that shift is
ideological China was showing no political convergence as it grew it
remained firmly Marxist leninist in fact according to my colleague Selena that is
what drives China today so the the mistaken idea that many in the west had
that there would be geopolitical convergence was frustrated and
disappointed and then as an economist for me the China
shock the China shock was that China's economy became so powerful in
manufacturing so powerful in exports that the rest of the world
Shook and in America what you saw
were Steel Workers auto manufacturing industry looking around and saying the
price at which China is selling us steel automobiles the rest of what China
exports computers textiles everything you can mention was low relative to
everything else that America was making everything else that America was
importing from Canada or Mexico that for an economist is the China shock and what
they gave rise to was a deep insecurity in America
when you price something lower than I can make it you are taking business away
from me you are stealing my jobs you are dismantling my industry and
through that you are turning into ghost towns what were once thriving
middleclass American communities not only did China not converge politically
to the great disappointment of Frank fukiyama Simo lipet Bill Clinton and a range of other thinkers China was
challenging America economically and this challenge is not
unique to America in every society that produces goods that compete with China
you are now all at risk the right thing to do in that situation for an economist is to come along and say don't worry
that means you're not very productive at making steel automobiles I will teach you to program computers
in about 15 years you will all be good computer programmers and you will once again be able to compete with China that
is a story that no one bought so the big China shock was this up and then down
the question is what do we do going forwards and this is where I end the
goal is obviously not to
take each great power is just trying to do the best that it
can China wants to grow and it should grow to lift its people out of poverty
America doesn't want its people to feel insecure and it shouldn't we need to be
able to come up with a way to triangulate that so the question for us in the rest of the world is not to take
sides because everybody is right the question is what's the smart thing for
us to do so let me end with three smart things we can do remember I said the
beginning of all this was inadvertent uh inadvertent cooperation
we should go back to that we should try and find domains of inadvertent cooperation let me give just
two okay inadvertent cooperation means you've got some goal in mind that's got
nothing to do with what's going on here but in pursuing that goal you end up cooperating because now now given the
tensions full-blown cooperation is impossible we can't go around telling the world oh please cooperate because
otherwise we're going to die we're in a boat headed for an iceberg we're all going to sink if you don't cooperate
that doesn't work you've got to look for ways in which countries can again inadvertently cooperate here are
two one is the global climate crisis every country in the world feels
threatened by China's production of electric batteries electric vehicles and they want to put up industrial policy
that will help their industry okay everybody in the world fears that when America practices
industrial policy there will be a retaliation other countries will practice industrial policy let me say
the thing that economists are not allowed to say what's so bad about that
if America has industrial policy that makes it produce better batteries better
electric vehicles move towards renewable energy and in doing that it makes Europe
and China feel very uncomfortable and they put on even more industrial policy
to improve their batteries and electric vehicles I say from the sidelines right
on this is how we're going to save the world through inadvertent
cooperation two other ideas I have about small Nations nudging the great powers
out of great lock when you see two great Powers banging away at each other what you want to do is not necessarily get
completely out of the way but to nudge them away from grit loock convince them
that they do not have to do this simply by making cooling reassuring noises and
let me end by saying multilateralism which is part of the idea that built the
world in that inadvertent Co lesson is no longer on offer given the state of geopolitics
but a kind of Pathfinder multilateralism will be available this
is hugely important for Singapore hugely important that Singapore which imports
and exports 300% of GDP again be able to engage on a Level Playing Field with
other nations in trade if we can't do it for all of the world simultaneously let's do it for subgroups let's do it
for Pathfinder multilateralism so those are my ideas thank you thank you very much for your
attention I'd now like to maybe engage with a few minutes uh with um if there
are burning points that each of my panelists wants to raise in confrontation with the others if not I'd
like to then invite the audience to to Poe their questions to us so I think there's unanimity here uh to get
questions from the audience say since as Mr Lee says many of you are so experts in this yes sir please come up to the
microphone say very quickly who you are and then ask your question just a quick one my name is
in I've been looking at all these things and thinking about it just a couple of
questions Rel relative to the rest of the world do you think the Chinese are overco
competitive and 46 years after T shopping to charge the failing Chinese
economy why haven't uh the Chinese produ leaders that can speak and engage with
the rest of the world in English I think that helps them project the soft power
much better than just speaking Chinese thank you very much for your question two very precise questions if I may let
me just address them here in this panel uh Mr Lee maybe you can take on the the first yes uh in thanks for the question
I think the second question first uh why can't they speak English actually uh in my experience with those born after' 70s
uh especially 70s and 80s I see some of them rising in the hierarchy are
speaking very good English in fact they study in the in the western universities so so so I have this hope
that when they really become you know at the top Echelon one day uh I I think
their world view will be very different so so that is coming Aang
uh your first question uh what was the first question Chinese over comp Chinese over
competitive well there are many we are all Chinese descent here I mean most of us so you know we know we value
education you have tiger man syndrome you know uh you have duration over the
weekends enement classes and you know you work 18 hours a day and you don't
find it wrong right I mean so so it is very deep rooted in in the Chinese culture uh to to Value education and and
that itself you know when you have a system to to organize the people in a in
a productive way you will produce lots of Engineers and uh int intelligencia
that will be needed to power the economy so so I you you you can't say that oh
please uh adopt the 8 to5 rule you know like Australia if you if you your bosses
are not supposed to message you huh after after what time and the weekend and so on you you you can't the CH it's
not in the Chinese culture so so so in that sense uh that the DNA is helpful
right so so I think um but of course uh now there's elephant in the room if
elephant goes in the swimming pool a lot of water will get Spilled Out you know from the pool because of the sh size so
I think this is something that they they have to find ways to uh to make uh the
world feel uh you know they they have a chance uh so so Chinese company investing in in
you know other continents and creating jobs uh and and sharing the benefits uh will be one productive way going forward
thank you Mr Le heni I want to go back to the question of uh Chinese speaking
English and how it may affect soft power I've been pondering that question
myself uh and I asked myself why why is it Indians in America do so well and in
Europe and Britain and so on of all the groups in the United States the East
Asian Americans don't do as well and China doesn't do as well why I think
um India has been under British colonialism for 250 years or more they
send their children to Britain to the boarding schools they set up boarding schools dun school and whatever St
Stevens in Chennai and so on like Eaton and the Indian Elite maharajas all want
to be British you know join clubs Etc so they know the culture and they're used
to talking to foreigners China has never been colonized really except in the uh
concessions on the coast and when you had the Mongols who came and the uh Manu
who came the Ching Dynasty became Chinese the Mongols stuck to themselves
hired other people to run the country for them so the Chinese are very in a
sense that culture has not been diluted they can't understand you know the West
in that way so you can learn English they go to the colleges you know but
they learn science mainly maths and there's no cultural content there I was
always asked in the United States uh Ambassador Chan why do the Chinese Point
their fingers at us wave their finger at us all the time when they speak the West
finds it very aggressive I say oh it's like the Italians you know they shake their hands and the Chinese just point
themselves it's not personal they point at each other too you know and even family members but there's a cultural
Clash there and I really think it's the fact that China has not been colonized
in that way and the colonization was very different I think that's why they've
not today because the world is Western had germanism for so long that you've
got to understand part of that culture thank you heni I mean the this can I just pick up on this as well the I mean
the here in Singapore uh people too had initially challenges with uh engaging
with the english- speaking world there were attempts to uh to Stamp Out Singlish that know dialects were not
considered appropriate and then there was a big push to get English and so now we've articulate English speakers um and
China could could well do that and indeed in the number of people that is sent China has sent to the United States
and to the UK Western Europe it's developing a whole new generation of people uh my friend kug Jin uh people
like Eric Lee and others who are just as articulate and persuasive in English as they are in Chinese or maybe I just pick
up your point about whether Chinese are overco competitive I think the right that's the right question is why is the
system that we have built so fragile that a group that's a little bit
more competitive then it ends up being viewed as disruptive for the rest of the system we should be thinking about how
we build system so that more competition as much competition as anyone can bring
out is good for the system and ideally we can think about ways like that I mean
this is what Adam Smith was about Adam Smith said 200 years ago it is not
because we think people are nice to each other that they're benevolent that we expect dinner on our table but instead
is from the butcher Baker and the Brewer they're looking attention paying attention to their self-interest that
guarantees the delivery in the economic Marketplace and we need to be Building Systems like that uh so may I um yeah
please and then after that
yourself thank you then uh zel here um I
must say that uh first of all I'd like to thank uh liwanu school for this festival
today is our former prime minister Liu's birthday
yes and 101 years old and uh I personally owe a lot to to him and
Singapore owes a lot to him and in particular in our understanding of China
I think uh in the opening of China and the trips at that time I was editor of brarian Malay newspaper but Mr liuan you
always making a point that when we goes to China is always a multi-racial kind of composition of Delegation including
editors who go along so I was privileged and honored to be part of that team uh
but I also like to emphasize to to Mr Lee that we are not all Chinese
here I'm one of those Singaporean but not all Chinese but I think I just the
point I want to make is that I just came back from CIA I was there for two weeks
and we went with my former classmates School classmates and they chose to visit Shin Chang because of the Muslim
background and I wanted to ask a question about how do you see China responding to the challenges which you
all discuss about in particular America but with the role of the in that context do they do you see
China turning to that part of the Muslim world to bring about a better
understanding better relationships with the rest of the world but having said that uh I would like also to ask another
question about Singapore's role what what I heard just now really fantastic fabulous ideas uh Singapore China was
wondering why Singapore 70% Chinese should be more Chinese rather than closer to America but we see our
Singapore as multiracial and closer to the realities of the challenges of the
world how do you see Singapore's role in that context can Singapore play a role
in making in China understand the world better and the final point about
learning Chinese learning English I also had the same sentiment when I was there I had difficulties communicating but
then I asked myself why not I learn Mandarin of course China must learn
English too and learn the other cultures of the world but I think we the known Chinese also can learn and understand
China better thank you thank you Z thank you yeah let's let's take let's take
some other questions please do you want to um do there a
microphone can we bring one here very just very quickly so everybody else can hear I I hear you fine so but everybody
else wants to hear you as well no I just want to offer a comment
here because the AI technology progress has been so rapid today is beginning to
happen you can speak in any language yes simultaneously we translated to multiple
languages so people who want to translate into Malay sit one side and
African another side and if you respond same thing you can respond in any
language it be translated into whatever language the speaker thank you so the
day is coming so that's the good news thank you very much thank you uh sir please
question okay all right going to get my name is pun oza and thank you so much for this
uh event I really enjoyed the conversations um I'm a student as well as a teacher of geopolitics and shipping
because that's my profession so obviously this is very interesting I just wanted to view um from all of you
on a particular point of view which has been promulgated at least in some of the Chinese friends and other friends I have
who say that the challenge with China what is happening today is more because of the confusion which is because there
are two systems in one country there is a centralized uh decision-making uh
planned economy system at the same time there's a lot of private initiative which is driving the growth and
potential growth when both of these Collide at one point of time the
confusion is basically creating u a biggest challenge for China going forward is that view uh correct from all
of you thank you very much uh lein can I just get your question in before I turn to the panel
uh thanks Danny this is leing a quick question um especially after you mentioned the Chinese company are all
going out or you're going to die and they are coming out to asan for two
reasons one is to better access the market not just the asan market but also
the European and the US market which turns out to be more restrictive and another is to some extent bypass the
export control that the US is implementing on China so will that translate into more pressure on
countries like Singapore from us that to stop helping China to get access to the
export export control restricted technology for instance there okay uh
the computer chips and that thank you very much Le uh Mr Lee may I begin with you again we've got a lot of questions
so just uh just pick and choose however you like uh Ling's question right will
Singapore stop helping China I think our well I think the companies are making
adjustments based on the existing uh Arrangements uh under WTO uh you know
under bilateral and multilateral uh free trade agreements so they will figure out a way you know if the direct export is
ter is too high they'll go to a different country and then you know and benefiting The Shipping Lines and so on
huh and and and find the path of minimum least resistance they will go so if this
uh tariffs structure change again then I think companies will have to adjust again so it's not so much whether
Singapore will or will not help uh these companies we we just we just make oursel as business friendly as possible uh to
receive any businesses that can that can make use of Singapore you know to to to prosper I think coming to the questions
on uh you know the balance between the role of central government and
Enterprise uh indeed it's true it's a common observation that in the last 10 12 years uh there is this phenomenon
called meaning soe advance but Poe
Retreat okay so so yeah S soe Advance
and po uh Retreat so meaning that the private sector role is getting
smaller uh at least the sentiment is felt that way right that that that a lot
of uh important major uh needle moving projects are to be done
by uh s soes but have you said that there's qualification because a lot of the EV uh you know manufacturers today
they are Poes right but but the the Chinese government has has wanted to
always play a bigger role in telling you what to do so that is quite contrary to
what we are used to in the western world and in Singapore we we believe that the government should do only this and then
let the market uh Thrive right and and you know exercise their judgment and
initiatives so so I think uh indeed that is a sentiment today uh and that
sentiment doesn't um Inspire confidence uh for continual
Investments heni may I invite you to speak to uh I think I'll take zel's
question because you've picked up the others and is the question of how China
will deal with the Middle East and because it wants to reach out and
establish some influence and cooperation there certainly is one way of breaking
out of what they see as the West United States leading its NATO allies to try to
circumscribe China uh and it's got this sang problem
and how they would deal with the Muslims in fact I have asked before a Chinese
official why did China not seek advice from I didn't say Singapore Malaysia or
Indonesia which are Muslim majority countries how they deal with radical
Islam you know and I I said it's still possible it may not be too late I didn't
get an answer because I think it was above his pay grade you know but uh but
I think China will have to resolve that so far as you know oh I has been quite
silent Saudi Arabia the Middle East countries Indonesia Malaysia they've not
made an issue of what is happening in sang mainly because it is
separatist I was this was explained to me because the it is a separatist
faction and most of these countries are against separatism themselves but I
think China for its own uh self-esteem and for its ability
to reach out further to the rest of the world will have to resolve the sang
question I don't think it's genocide I think it's human rights abuses grave
human rights abuses so it's a question of how China seeks to deal with that
issue you know because otherwise it will always be something that stands in the way of
full cooperation thank you he Selena yeah um let me Let Me Maybe answer I'll leave
the business Eon question to both of you on my right left left and right um I'll answer Z's question which is uh to to in
addition to what uh Ambassador China has said which is I think I think there is this Rich uh this public relations
Outreach a public Outreach that China is doing to Muslim countries in terms of uh
the situation in sang so they have um you know invited uh religious leaders
and Muslims groups in Indonesia in Malaysia as well to visit uh uh sang and
to show you know that all these things are not happening but I think one thing we have to if we step back a little bit
more there is something else involved here um this improving our relations with the Muslim world I think that's something we want to do but we know that
China's relations with Indonesia and Malaysia is actually quite good especially in economic realm and that
has a lot to do with that as well so that is this this this foreign policy part that is uh slightly separate from
the religious issue and I think China's involvement in the Middle East is not just about religion there is that great
power management which I was talking about that great Powers manage the world
what does it mean to manage the world meaning that you insert yourself into places where there are conflict and
where there's violence and then you play a mediating role and and I think it in
it its rise to Global prominence and is part of his Global Ambitions has insed
itself in the Middle East in the way that United States have and in in places that the United States have not been
able to broker a deal like between Iran and Saudi Arabia earlier on and and all that so it has inserted itself in in
great power management taking on the role of great power failing spaces that the US cannot feel I think that's an
important thing to remember about this Outreach to the Muslim world and to the Middle East
singapor because we're out of time Singapore's role um in making China understand the world better I think that
we have played a role in this for a very long time in terms of translation in terms of trying to breach being the
meeting points for but I think the that role in this current climate is still there but it
may not be as it was in the past in in the past China was willing to learn it
was a student it was the student uh during teling time it is now the teacher
I think it considers itself to be a teacher I think we need to remember that and we we we be careful about we should
be careful about how we approach this issue and the kind of role that we play Yi you wanted to jump I just wanted to
add I didn't answer that point I agree with uh Selena that China has in fact
developed it's grown it's got at the time when they were reaching out and the West was talking to China they had a lot
of dialogue set up hundreds of dialogues they didn't need Singapore but I think this moment when China is having so so
much difficulties with the west and trying to get the West to understand and appreciate what it is trying to do that
is a role for Singapore I know it because the Chinese groups think tanks
have come to Singapore and said can you help to create some dialogue between the
United States and uh China because uh
Singapore is in fact trusted by the US and you have China channels in China so
I do not dismiss our role now but we should be at least modest and humble
about how much effect we can have it's always good to try to help establish
dialogue because the two sides can talk to each other and now and again you know
though Singapore is seem to be proest I think even by China they understand that
Singapore leaders do now and again and important forums speak out for China to
urge that the West you know sort of uh also speak to China I remember prime
minister Lee sien when he was prime minister said at the Nik Forum he said
you know I understand that there are groupings that are going to be formed of like-minded people to deal with future
challenges referring to all these minilateral the United States was forming in the he said but do you in fact build confidence building measures with your potential adversary you know is that kind of statement that I think China will find helpful thank you heni I if I may I just say a couple of words on Lin's question but maybe in a slightly different direction I think one of the
things that is a great Pitfall for the rest of us is to think that in this us
China conf confrontation we can just jump in yeah and do business we can be
you know the China plus one so that when America gets really tired of China it turns to us as the plus one um I want to just take the view that if you think that America's problem with China is nothing personal the pro challenges that it faces with the China shock China's exports is not unique to China it is just something that is going to react to every time it sees a comp competitive economy that's exporting to America in a way that challenges America's Supremacy we saw that with Japan Japan in the 1990s and 2000s was Enemy Number One for the United States Economic Policy trade policy and Japan at that time was no China
Japan Jaan was firmly an allly of the US Pacific Alliance Japan's entire military
was underg guarded by the US Department of Defense nonetheless America felt that Japan's exporting progress in refrigerators in automobiles in consumer
electronics presented a threat to the American economy so if any of us think
that well you know China and us are in trouble I can be a Vietnam I can be a Mexico I can be somebody else that comes
in and takes over from what China exported to the US I can be the plus one
well My worry is that economics tells us what not going to be we need to play
another strategy one that's more constructive that helps bring America and China together again um I would love
to have more questions because it's been so much fun I hope it's been fun for everyone but we've reached the end of our time I I only remains for me to
invite you to join me in thanking this wonderful panel
thank you panelist uh may we now invite them to the front for group photography please in the meantime we like to thank all of you for attending this Festival session and the next Lobby session will begin at 12:15 p.m. in the meantime please feel free to explore around the BTC campus and participate in some of our fren activities that we have for you this ranges from our research to Heritage exhibition to our Amazing Race where 20 lucky individuals will stand to win 20 $120 worth of prizes we hope you're hungry as well because we have food stations popping up at our student lounge which is right at the back so if you like to you can may visit there for some food and beverages as well thank you.